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Updated UFC 269 Odds, Predictions, Model Projections: Betting Previews for All 14 Fights

Updated UFC 269 Odds, Predictions, Model Projections: Betting Previews for All 14 Fights article feature image
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Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC championship belt.

  • UFC 269 is headlined by Charles Oliveira defending his lightweight championship against Dustin Poirier.
  • Amanda Nunes also defends against Julianna Pena atop a stacked 14-fight card to end 2021.
  • Sean Zerillo lays out his model projections while breaking down every fight and making his betting picks below.

The UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, Dec. 11, for a loaded 14-fight card for UFC 269, highlighted by a pair of title fights; a Lightweight title bout between Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier, and a Bantamweight title bout between Amanda Nunes and Julianna Peña.

The five early prelims will begin on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET. The broadcast will move to ESPN2 for the four featured prelims at 8 p.m. ET, and the five-fight main card will commence at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

If you are new to this piece, or this sport, note that in addition to moneylines and over/unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight — including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

UFC 269 Moneyline Projections

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday’s 14 bouts. In the next section, you’ll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday at 5 p.m. ET and via DraftKings.

UFC 269 Prop Projections 

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

[Click Here to Skip to Main Card]

UFC 269 Odds

Early Preliminary Card

  • ESPN+
  • 6 p.m. ET

Women’s Flyweight fight: Gillian Robertson vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Odds
Robertson odds -350
Cachoeira odds +270
Over/Under 2.5 rounds +120 / -150

Crowdsourced Projections: Robertson (76.7%)

The first fight on Saturday’s card is a binary matchup between a grappling specialist, Robertson, and a zombie power puncher in Cachoeira.

The Brazilian has shown porous takedown defense in the UFC (64%, controlled for 6:44 in her last fight against Gina Mazany) and has shown little ability to scramble up off of her back. Robertson (2.54 takedowns per 15 minutes, 47% accuracy) has a better top game and better cardio than Mazany.

The Canadian owns five finishes in the UFC, and if she can secure takedowns early, she should be able to finish the fight on the mat. Conversely, if Cachoeira can keep the bout standing, she should have a clear advantage in the striking department. She is a big hitter, and Robertson reacts poorly to strikes.

I show slight value on Cachoeira to win inside the distance (projected +619, listed +650) and I have a strong lean to the Under 2.5 rounds, given the binary nature of this fight.

I’ll sprinkle Cachoeira’s finish prop, and bet enough on the Under to force a push on a Robertson finish.

Bets: 

  • Priscila Cachoeira wins Inside the Distance (+650, 0.1 unit)
  • Under 2.5 Rounds (-145, 0.1u)

Bantamweight fight: Randy Costa vs. Tony Kelley

Odds
Costa odds -195
Kelley odds +165
Over/Under 1.5 rounds -125 / -105

Crowdsourced Projections: Costa (61%)

Costa seems like a gifted talent, but he has shown a combination of poor cardio and fight IQ, which has led to a pair of UFC losses on the two occasions where he went past the first round.

“The Zohan” will have a 3-inch reach advantage against Kelley and might come in with a revamped game plan after spending his second camp at Sanford MMA. He has an excellent jab and can fight out of both stances, but he seemingly falls off a few minutes into his fights.

Given his typically berserk style, Costa to win in Round 1 (+210) is an enticing prop bet. Kelley is the more durable and more composed fighter, and if he can survive the early onslaught from Costa, or lull his opponent into a low-volume sparring match, I expect him to gain the upper hand in the late rounds.

Kelley hasn’t competed in more than a year, but Costa, who is seven years younger, is likelier to have improved his game in the interim.

If Costa can tweak his game plan to win minutes or fix his cardio issue and maintain a ridiculous pace, he’s going to take a substantial step forward as a fighter.

From a projection perspective, I don’t show value on this fight from any angle.

However, betting the information on tape,  Kelley live after Round 1, to win in Round 2 (+1100) or Round 3 (+1800) are a trio of exciting angles for playing this matchup.

I will throw darts at the latter two options and look for a live entry.

Bets: 

  • Tony Kelley wins in Round 2 (+1200, 0.05u)
  • Tony Kelley wins in Round 3 (+2500, 0.05u)
  • Tony Kelley Live after Round 1

Featherweight fight: Ryan Hall vs. Darrick Minner

Odds
Hall odds -195
Minner odds +165
Over/Under 2.5 rounds +140 / -170

Crowdsourced Projections: Hall (66.7%)

Hall’s fights are challenging to handicap due to his highly unorthodox style.

Conversely, Minner is easy to handicap — 34 of his 38 career fights have ended inside the distance, including 26 in the first round. After Round 1, Minner is just 5-7, and he typically looks to hang on for dear life.

That said, Minner has one career win by knockout, compared to 22 submissions and it’s difficult to envision him submitting Hall, a decorated third-degree blackbelt.

Hall is excellent at avoiding strikes (70% defense), and he can effectively chip away at Minner with kicks from the outside. I think he’s the likelier minute winner on the feet, which supports his favoritism in the betting market.

Hall can’t wrestle (0.29 takedowns per 15 minutes, 11% accuracy), but he’ll roll for legs and create scrambles to initiate grappling exchanges too. And he hasn’t stuffed a takedown because he’ll gladly allow his opponents to take fights to the mat.

Typically, Minner’s best path to victory is to wrestle immediately. Still, it’s hard to imagine him staying responsible while attempting to advance or do damage without getting swept or caught in a submission from bottom.

I don’t show value on either side of the moneyline, but I do see slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -233, listed -200), Hall by submission (projected +114, listed +130), or Hall by finish (projected -101, listed +100).

Hall live after Round 1 is another potential opportunity.

Bets: 

  • Minner/Hall, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-185, Risk 0.5u)
  • Ryan Hall Live after Round 1

Women’s Flyweight fight: Miranda Maverick vs. Erin Blanchfield

Odds
Maverick odds -145
Blanchfield odds +125
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -330 / +240

Crowdsourced Projections: Maverick (56.5%)

This is an excellent matchup between two rising flyweights, though an odd bit of promotional matchmaking from the UFC as they hang a loss on one of their better prospects at 125.

Maverick could easily be 3-0 in the UFC, but suffered a surprising decision loss against Maycee Barber in July; all 22 media scorecards and more than 90% of fan scorecards had the bout for Maverick.

Blanchfield was impressive in her UFC debut, moving up to 135 to face Sarah Alpar (198-45 on strikes, 3-of-3 on takedowns, 9:43 of control). Still, she appears outclassed physically against Maverick and may get backed up, which could present poor optics for the judges in a division with a low finish rate.

This is the likeliest fight on Saturday’s card to reach a decision (listed -280), so minute-winning will be essential in this fight.

Blanchfield has the superior cardio and offensive grappling game, but Maverick ticks the boxes on physicality and strength of schedule. And while Blanchfield is the more technical fighter, Maverick will make this a dirty scrap and prevent her opponent from finding her rhythm.

I project slight value on the fight to go the distance (projected -300) and Blanchfield to win by decision (projected +207) depending on the book.

Consider using the Over 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece, or sprinkle the underdog decision prop in a close tossup.

Bets: 

  • Erin Blanchfield wins by Decision (+225, 0.1u)

Middleweight fight: Andre Muniz vs. Eryk Anders

Odds
Muniz odds -180
Anders odds +155
Over/Under 1.5 rounds -160 / +130

Crowdsourced Projections: Muniz (59.9%)

After consecutive submission victories in the UFC, including a violent win over BJJ legend Jacare Souza, Muniz is making waves in the middleweight division.

The Brazilian seems like a bit of a glass cannon — his striking is raw, and all four of his career losses are by knockout — but Muniz has finished 18 of his 21 victories inside the distance, including 14 in the first round.

HE BROKE HIS ARM 🤯

Andre Muniz by submission +775 ✅pic.twitter.com/dXXodF54yS

— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) May 16, 2021

Anders is an underwhelming fighter (-0.76 strike differential) — he offers good takedown defense (76%) and swings big, he just rarely lets his hands go.

If Anders can keep this bout standing, he should have a clear advantage. However, if he winds up on his back, he could suffer his first career submission loss. 

Like Dustin Poirier in the main event, we don’t have a ton of information about Anders defending a top jiu-jitsu practitioner off of his back; it’s not a situation that has played out to this point in his career.

I project slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -233, listed -225), Muniz to win by submission (projected +139, listed +140), or Muniz to win by finish (projected +108, listed +120).

The Under 1.5 Rounds also looks enticing at plus money, but I’m inclined to back Muniz to continue his finish streak; his grappling is at a different level.

Bets: 

  • Andre Muniz wins Inside the Distance (+125, 0.25u)

Preliminary Card

  • ESPN2/ESPN+
  • 8 p.m. ET

Middleweight fight: Jordan Wright vs. Bruno Silva

Odds
Wright odds +260
Silva odds -335
Over/Under 1.5 rounds +140 / -170

Crowdsourced Projections: Silva (71.7%)

This middleweight matchup is the likeliest fight to end in a finish on Saturday, both per my projections (-509) and listed odds (-650).

Wright has never been past the six-minute mark in his career, while Silva has seen 24 of his 27 fights ends inside the distance.

“The Beverly Hills Ninja” is more of a glass cannon than Muniz — who I mentioned in the fight before this one — he comes forward with reckless abandon, closes his eyes, and throws heat, despite a lack of durability and poor reactions when he takes damage.

I’m not exceptionally high on Silva. He offers minimal resistance to takedowns and doesn’t possess any technique, but thrives on durability, physicality, and cardio.

That might be more than enough to defeat Jordan Wright, but I’m not sure he can justify his price tag. I projected Wright around +254, and I’m interested in a small taste of his moneyline.

Wright by finish (listed +425) or to win in Round 1 (+800) might encompass more of his win condition and would require reduced risk on a wager. And Wright by submission (+1000) is a worthy dart throw, considering Silva has never been knocked out.

Lastly, the Under 1.5 Rounds might be the best approach for the total – and the fight in general – given Wright’s fight history, relentless pacing, and fragility.

I expect Wright to put it on Silva early and create opportunities for a high variance outcome, and I may add a small play on one of Wright’s props.

Bets: 

  • Wright/Silva, Under 1.5 Rounds (-158, Risk 0.5u)

Heavyweight fight: Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa

Odds
Sakai odds -110
Tuivasa odds -110
Over/Under 1.5 rounds -165 / +135

Crowdsourced Projections: Tuivasa (52%)

Speaking of high-variance outcomes, I’m pleased to see a heavyweight bout involving Tai Tuivasa lined as a true pick’em.

It only takes one big punch to turn the tide in these heavyweight fights, as evidenced in Tuivasa’s last matchup where he stopped Greg Hardy after getting put on wobbly legs.

Tuivasa is 6-3 in the UFC, with a pair of three-fight winning streaks sandwiching a three-fight losing streak. Sakai started his promotional tenure with four victories (and a fifth on contender series) and is hoping to bounce back after a pair of losses to Alistair Overeem and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

Sakai has the reach advantage (2-inches), superior cardio, and the more well-rounded game, but Tuivasa hits harder, is more durable, and is likelier to force the action.

The Aussie needs to commit to the low kick game and slow Sakai down; otherwise, he will get chewed up later in the fight.

Tuivasa forces massive exchanges, and I don’t trust either fighter defensively (51% and 50% striking defense), so I’m tepid about betting the Over 1.5 rounds, even though this seems like a classic spot for such a wager.

Sakai tried to walk through strikes against Overeem (absorbed 80%, 92-of-114), then looked tepid (lost 16-3 on strikes) before suffering a knockout loss to Rozenstruik.

He seems lost as a fighter, while Tuivasa is more sure of himself. This is probably an excellent buy-low spot on Sakai (-165 against Arlovski, -143 against Tybura, +140 against Overeem, -105 against Rozenstruik) while taking a step down in competition.

Still, he seems to have panicked, rather than adjusting, after meeting his first real resistance at the top level of this sport.

I don’t show value on either side of the moneyline in this fight, though I would lean to Sakai given the class drop.

I show slight value on the fight to go the distance (projected +172, listed +180) or the Over 1.5 rounds; however, I’m concerned about Tuivasa’s recklessness and cardio impacting those wagers, so we’ll keep the bet small.

Bets: 

  • Sakai/Tuivasa, Fight Goes the Distance (+180, 0.25u)

Bantamweight fight: Pedro Munhoz vs. Dominick Cruz

Odds
Munhoz odds -105
Cruz odds -115
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -280 / +210

Crowdsourced Projections: Munhoz (60.3%)

Saturday will mark Cruz’s third fight since returning from a 3.5-year layoff. While he is still a top-level fighter, Cruz has shown some signs of regression, and notably, for this fight, he did not deal well with the leg kicks from Henry Cejudo (landed 23-of-25) and Casey Kenney (landed 23-of-26) in his last two bouts.

Munhoz fires leg kicks as hard and as often as anyone in the sport (landed 37-of-42 against Jose Aldo, 44-of-52 against Frankie Edgar, and 32-of-42 against Aljamain Sterling in his last three fights). Cruz’s game is predicated on movement and his ability to dart in and out of the pocket, but if Munhoz can land his leg kicks early and cut off that movement, he should take complete control over the fight.

Cruz has a 3-inch advantage in both height and reach but seemingly has no finishing upside against Munhoz, who is a durable high-level jiu-jitsu practitioner.

In theory, Cruz could have a path to victory through control time (2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes, 46% accuracy), but Munhoz has excellent takedown defense (80%) and a nasty guillotine choke.

At best, Cruz can win a close decision in this fight, predicated on volume. However, nearly all of the finishing upside lies with Munhoz, who possesses a clear power advantage.

The four outcomes here, in my assessment, are 1) Munhoz finish; 2) dominant Munhoz decision; 3) close Munhoz decision; 4) close Cruz decision. Even if Munhoz can’t entirely disrupt Cruz’s movement, the striking should be close on power optics alone.

I projected Munhoz’s moneyline closer to -150, and I think he’s the clear value side in this fight.

However, I also show value on the fight to go the distance (projected -256, listed -200) and Munhoz to win by decision (projected +176, listed +200).

Bets: 

  • Pedro Munhoz (-120, Risk 1u)

Featherweight fight: Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige

Odds
Emmett odds -145
Ige odds +125
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -200 / +165

Crowdsourced Projections: Emmett (61.8%)

Emmett has proven to be an anomalous power puncher since moving to featherweight, recording 10 knockdowns in his past six fights.

On paper, the striking metrics compared to Ige are relatively similar (+0.3 to +0.4 strike differential, 102 combined efficiency number for both fighters). Emmett is the superior offensive grappler (1.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, 47% accuracy), and Ige (55% takedown defense) has gotten stuck on his back in the past.

However, outside of his 2016 fight against Scott Holtzman, Emmett rarely shoots takedowns, and I doubt that he’s inclined to wrestle coming off of major knee surgery. That said, the grappling upside lies in his corner, and he likely dictates the location of his fight.

Ige’s best attribute might be his durability: the guy can take a shot and keep moving forward.

Emmett is more responsible defensively (63%), but he’s been knocked out in the past, and I always worry about a compensation injury after an athlete rehabs from a knee injury.

Still, he defeated Shane Burgos on mostly one leg, and he took a reasonable amount of time to rehab the injury before returning. At age 36, Emmett might be on his last serious run towards title contention, and I think he’s spectacularly underrated as a fighter.

Emmett is the more technical striker and the bigger hitter in what may end up as a three-round slugfest.  He opened as a -200 favorite in this fight, and steady Ige money has come in, so I may wait until closer to fight time before firing on Emmett, but I’m OK with -150 or better.

Furthermore, I show value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected +126) or Emmett to win inside the distance (projected +223) depending upon the book. Still, I prefer Emmett’s moneyline, both because of Ige’s durability, and the potential grappling path.

Bets: 

  • Josh Emmett (-125, Risk 0.5u)
  • Parlay (+129, 0.5u): Josh Emmett (-140) / Sean O’Malley (-300)

Main Card

  • Channel
  • 10 p.m. ET

Bantamweight fight: Raulian Paiva vs. Sean O’Malley

Odds
Paiva odds +270
O’Malley odds -350
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -115 / -115

Crowdsourced Projections: O’Malley (79.1%)

O’Malley is one of the most polarizing athletes in the world; I have a hard time deciphering a comparison for someone who fans simultaneously view as dramatically over or underrated, depending on who you ask.

The UFC recognizes the star potential of “The Suga Show” — what other unranked prospect continually gets prime real estate on PPV main cards? And they consistently hand him winnable matchups.

Paiva, a former flyweight, certainly fits the billing. He’s an inefficient striker (-0.66 differential, 93% combined accuracy and defense) who bull rushes opponents and makes his fights dirty. Essentially, he’s a superior version of Kris Moutinho, who absorbed 230 strikes in June’s short notice debut loss to O’Malley.

O’Malley has the size advantage (3-inch edge in both height and reach), in addition to sublime distance management (+4.66 strike differential; 127% combined accuracy and defense) to counter Paiva with ease.

Paiva was nearly finished twice in Round 1 against O’Malley’s teammate, Kyler Phillips, but rallied to secure a decision victory (which should have been scored a draw). The Brazilian has shown a ton of heart in his wins, but he excelled by bullying around smaller flyweights and was lucky to survive his last fight until Phillips gassed out.

Paiva needs to put O’Malley on his back or press him up against the cage to slow down the proceedings. If he hangs out at a distance or has to blitz to close the range continually, he’s going to get put out with a big counter after overextending.

In a smaller cage at the APEX, I might give more credence to the Paiva side, but O’Malley will have ample room to maneuver in the 30-foot octagon, and Paiva will be chasing him around the cage for the duration.

O’Malley’s critics aren’t without justification and there will be betting spots to go against “The Suga Show” in the future, as we did with Marlon Vera, but Paiva is a very winnable matchup and a potential highlight on a platter.

I project O’Malley as the value side in this fight, and I like his moneyline (projected -380) as a parlay piece. If you’re betting this fight straight, I would play O’Malley to win inside the distance (projected -112, listed +105).

I also show slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -174), but most of that value is tied to O’Malley’s win condition.

Bets: 

  • Sean O’Malley wins Inside the Distance (+105, 0.25u)

Flyweight fight: Kai Kara-France vs. Cody Garbrandt

Odds
Kara-France odds +110
Garbrandt odds -130
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -115 / -115

Crowdsourced Projections: Garbrandt (54%)

Garbrandt is finally moving down to flyweight after losing four of five fights since winning the bantamweight title in 2016.

Kara-France represents a step down in competition from his recent opponents. Though the Kiwi will hold a 4-inch reach advantage in his fight, he’ll have to overcome a 4-inch height discrepancy and a significant power differential.

On paper, Kara-France has the superior striking metrics (+1.18 to -0.97 differential; +6% combined accuracy and defense), and while Garbrandt is likely the better striker, he looked lost against Rob Font’s jab.

Kara-France loves to duck into the pocket and throw shots upstairs. Garbrandt will look to counter with big hooks, and if he connects, it could be lights out in a hurry — Cody was a big hitter for 135-pounder, and he could be a menace at 125.

Kara-France has been hurt in multiple fights. Likewise, Cody’s durability was already a concern and could get worse after cutting down further in weight. 

Kara-France will likely win minutes on the feet with activity until getting caught with a power shot. However, if Garbrandt proactively wrestles (1.05 takedowns per 15 minutes, 32% accuracy), he should have a definitive grappling advantage.

Ultimately, this is probably an excellent buy-low spot on Garbrandt. He’s taking a serious step down in competition while likely moving to the appropriate weight class, and he is superior everywhere except striking volume and Fight IQ.

Garbrandt will likely lean into pocket exchanges, and create a high variance situation, instead of taking a more measured approach.

That said, I don’t show value on any moneyline, total, or prop for this fight, and I’m going to pass from a betting perspective.

Bets: 

  • Pass

Welterweight fight: Geoff Neal vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Odds
Neal odds -110
Ponzinibbio odds -110
Over/Under 1.5 rounds -185 / +150

Crowdsourced Projections: Ponzinibbio (60%)

These welterweights offer similar striking metrics in what should be a highly technical kickboxing matchup.

Both men land and absorb between 4.4 to 4.7 strikes per minute. Neal has the advantage in striking accuracy (+8%), while Ponzinibbio has the positive strike differential (+0.27 to -0.26) between the pair.

Neal has a 2-inch reach advantage and could present some problematic looks from his southpaw stance. He owns a big left hand and a powerful high kick, either one of which could crack the “Argentine Dagger,” who fights with his hands low.

Ponzinibbio has shown indications of regression since returning from a two-year layoff in January. He suffered a first-round knockout loss at the hand of Li Jingliang and had to rally from behind to defeat Miguel Baeza in June (absorbed 44 of 49 leg kicks).

Similarly, Neal has shown signs of decline after dealing with a bad case of COVID last year, getting out-struck 171-85 and 55-35 in consecutive losses against Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny. He was arrested for a DUI on Thanksgiving and has a pending legal matter to complicate matters further.

Stylistically, this might be a decent matchup for Neal. Ponzinibbio will stand in the pocket and give him the type of fight he wants, but I trust the Argentine to out-volume the American over 15 minutes.

Neal is four years younger and more likely to return to his previous form than Ponzinibbio. Still, the latter has twice as many professional fights and has faced a much more difficult slate of competition than his opponent.

Ponzinibbio should be able to apply pressure, put Neal on his back foot, and control the range of the striking exchanges with his jab. I expect both men to absorb some big shots in this contest, and while I would give a slight edge to Neal on durability, I do see Ponzinibbio as the value side.

Neal tends to fall behind his opponents on volume, and he’s a bit frustrating to watch when his power shots aren’t connecting.

I projected Ponzinibbio as a 60% favorite in this fight, and I’m happy to bet his moneyline at a pick ’em price.

I also show value on Ponzinibbio’s odds to win by decision (projected +178, listed +275) and on the fight to go the distance (projected +100, listed +150). However, I’m less inclined to double down on one side – Neal could win a close decision on power optics — so I will likely add the fight GTD prop instead of the Ponzinibbio decision prop.

Bets: 

  • Santiago Ponzinibbio (-110, 0.5u)
  • Ponzinibbio/Neal, Fight Goes the Distance (+135, 0.25u)

Women’s Bantamweight fight: Amanda Nunes (c) vs. Julianna Peña

Odds
Nunes odds -1000
Peña odds +650
Over/Under 1.5 rounds -140 / +110

Crowdsourced Projections: Nunes (87.4%)

Saturday will mark the second consecutive fight where Nunes closes over -1000 (90.9%) consensus in the betting market.

Before the Megan Anderson fight in March, her previous career-best was -700 (87.5% implied) against Raquel Pennington 2018 and she closed as an underdog against Cris Cyborg (+170) and Valentina Shevchenko (+121) in her two bouts on either side of that matchup.

Despite the aura of greatness surrounding Nunes, a few brave bettors are willing to stand against her in each fight. “The Lioness” is a prominent physical presence at 135, but she can slow down if her opponents survive the championship rounds, at which point she grapples and turns into a wet blanket on top for the duration.

Talent wise, Peña is seemingly on the lower end of Nunes’ run of title challengers. She’s not defensively responsible, either on the feet or on the mat, and her cardio doesn’t stand out either.

Still, if Peña can survive the first 10 minutes against Nunes, she will stay in the champion’s face and make this bout surprisingly competitive.

Peña needs to push a pace and force Nunes to work early and often even if Peña is getting her back turned to the cage where she’s forced to defend. So long as Peña can stay out of trouble from big power shots and make Nunes work, she has a path to victory late in the fight since Nunes tires more when she is forced to grapple.

I doubt that Peña (2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, 53% accuracy) can get Nunes (84% takedown defense) to the mat early, but tying her up in the clinch and attempting to wear on her could lead to some success later in the fight.

Nunes (2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, 53% accuracy) should be able to dictate where the fight takes place (23% takedown defense for Peña), and she carries significantly more power and efficiency (+2.05 to +1.1 strike differential; +8% combined accuracy and defense) in the striking exchanges.

I don’t show value on either side of the moneyline or the total for this fight. The Under 1.5 (+115) is likely a better play than Nunes to win in Round 1 (+150), but I don’t show any value on Nunes’ winning method props either — her odds to win by finish (projected -263, listed -330) are outrageous.

Peña to win in Round 4 (+5500) or Round 5 (+6500) are worthy dart throws in case Nunes gasses out completely, but I would prefer to bet Peña Live after Round 2 at a massive number right when she’s coming into her best win condition.

Bets: 

  • Julianna Peña Live after Round 2

Lightweight fight: Charles Oliveira (c) vs. Dustin Poirier

Odds
Oliveira odds +115
Poirier odds -135
Over/Under 1.5 rounds -195 / +155

Crowdsourced Projections: Poirier (52.5%)

For additional information on Saturday’s main event, including a full statistical breakdown, make sure to check out my full fight preview.

If Poirier can survive the first couple of rounds, he should eventually take over the fight and likely put Oliveira away late. Oliveira has never been past the third round in a professional fight, and it’s difficult to imagine him maintaining his chaotic pace for 25 minutes.

If Oliveira is doing enough to win minutes with top position, he should finish the fight himself. And although he’s capable of hanging on the feet with Poirier, I do expect the American to land the harder shots and secure the majority of points over 25 minutes.

I project betting value on Charles Oliveira’s (projected 47.5% or +111 implied) moneyline, and I show slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -394).

Moreover, I project value on Oliveira to win by submission (projected +224, listed +300) or by finish (projected +148, listed +200).

Most of Oliveira’s win condition (projected 85%) is tied to a finish. I could say the same for Poirier (projected 75%). Still, he’s the much likelier minute winner in the fight — particularly over the final three rounds — which is why I prefer Oliveira’s inside-the-distance prop as compared to his moneyline.

If Poirier survives to Round 3, I will look to jump in on his side live.  Suppose he’s able to survive the initial onslaught of submission attempts and/or keep this fight standing. In that case, Poirier should eventually pull away on the scorecards or finish Oliveira in the late stages.

Fight doesn’t start Round 4 (-175) is my favorite way to attack the total.

Bets: 

  • Charles Oliveira wins Inside the Distance (+200, 0.5u)
  • Dustin Poirier Live after Round 2

Zerillo’s UFC 269 Bets

Distance or Decision Props and Overs

  • Erin Blanchfield wins by Decision (+225, 0.1 unit)
  • Sakai/Tuivasa, Fight Goes the Distance (+180, 0.25u)
  • Ponzinibbio/Neal, Fight Goes the Distance (+135, 0.25u)

Inside the Distance Props and Unders

  • Priscilla Cachoeira wins Inside the Distance (+650, 0.1u)
  • Cachoeira/Robertson, Under 2.5 Rounds (-145, 0.1u)
  • Tony Kelley wins in Round 2 (+1200, 0.05u)
  • Tony Kelley wins in Round 3 (+2500, 0.05u)
  • Minner/Hall, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-185, Risk 0.5u)
  • Andre Muniz wins Inside the Distance (+125, 0.25u)
  • Wright/Silva, Under 1.5 Rounds (-158, Risk 0.5u)
  • Sean O’Malley wins Inside the Distance (+100, 0.25u)
  • Charles Oliveira wins Inside the Distance (+200, 0.5u)

Moneylines

  • Pedro Munhoz (-120, Risk 1u)
  • Josh Emmett (-125, Risk 0.5u)
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio (-110, 0.5u)

Parlays

  • Parlay (+129, 0.5u): Josh Emmett (-140) / Sean O’Malley (-300)

Live Betting Notes

  • Tony Kelley Live after Round 1
  • Ryan Hall Live after Round 1
  • Julianna Peña Live after Round 2
  • Dustin Poirier Live after Round 2

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