UFC 275 Best Bets: Odds & Picks for Fialho vs. Matthews, Teixeira vs. Prochazka and More
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Glover Teixeira.
- UFC 275 features two title fights, including the main event: Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka.
- That's one of three fights that our MMA betting analysts see great value in at UFC 275.
- Check out their picks and fight breakdowns below.
The UFC heads overseas to Singapore for an action-packed 11-fight Pay-Per-View card with two title fights. UFC 275 begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with two early prelim fights then moves to ESPN 2 at 8 p.m. ET for four more prelim bouts.
The PPV main card features Women's Flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko vs. Taila Santos in the co-main event and Light Heavyweight champ Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka in the main event.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed two fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
Billy Ward: Andre Fialho vs. Jack Matthews
Contributor at The Action Network
Matthews is the grappler in a striker vs. grappler matchup against Andre Fialho, a wild striker with limited defensive ability (or perhaps limited interest in defense) but scary power. He’s won both of his last two fights by first round knockout, while averaging 1.35 knockdowns per 15 minutes.
Matthews is a capable striker as well though, with an excellent 61% striking defense rate while landing nearly a strike more per minute than he absorbs. He has power in his own right, with a 0.35 knockdown rate per 15 minutes.
He has all the grappling upside in this one though. He has four submission victories in 15 UFC fights, despite being still just 27 years old. He’s actually slightly younger than Fialho, who made his UFC debut in January.
Fialho has already fought three times in the UFC despite his recent debut, which is another reason to fade him. Fighters generally improve when they have breaks between fights, with training camps used to work on opponent-specific strategy and get into fighting shape. It’s worked for Fialho so far, but it could catch up to him here.
Matthews is arguably the better striker here at least from a technical standpoint. While Fialho’s power is concerning, that’s where the grappling ability comes into play. Fialho hasn’t really fought anyone who wants to turn the fight into a grappling match. Matthews will, or at least should, if the striking turns south for him.
I’d bet him down to even money here, as I make him the slight favorite.
The Pick: Jake Matthews ML (+125)
Sean Zerillo: Batgerel Danaa vs. Kyung Ho Kang
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Danaa is returning to the octagon after sustaining a knockout loss on March 26, and I don't love a quick turnaround for any fighter coming off of a violent loss.
The Mongolian fighter carries a ton of power but loses effectiveness after the first round. Danaa may have difficulty hurting Kyung Ho Kang, whose only TKO loss came via soccer kicks in his third-career fight in 2008.
If "Mr. Perfect" can weather the early storm from Danaa, he should begin to take over the fight in the final two frames. While he doesn't carry significant power, Kang is the taller and longer fighter (two inches of height, three inches of reach), the more technical striker, and possesses all the grappling upside.
Since his debut loss to Alateng Heili, Danaa hasn't faced a single takedown attempt. Kang is at his best when fighting behind his range weapons and changing levels occasionally (2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, 59% accuracy).
I expect Danaa to win the first round at a decent clip, but the first round should be his best round before Kang starts to take over this fight. While you could way for a live entry on Kang after Round 1, I'm willing to bet him at +115 or better pre-fight (projected +110).
Kang by decision (projected +201, listed +225 at DraftKings) could offer the most value from a prop perspective. Still, I will stick with Kang's moneyline and look to add to that position live.
The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang (+115)
Dann Stupp: Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Saturday's UFC 275 main event offers a fantastic end-of-night betting opportunity, especially if you're a fellow MMA fan who's usually running out of steam by the end of an eight-hour fight card. Want a quick finish? This should be the fight for you.
When UFC light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira and challenger Jiri Prochazka finally make their way to the octagon late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, I expect it to be a short stay. And I'll be betting it accordingly.
This scheduled five-rounder pits the veteran savviness, ground dominance and prolific counter-punching of Teixeira against the relentless, powerful and sometimes-wild striking of Prochazka, who's won 12 straight (11 via knockout) to earn his title shot. The 29-year-old Czech will meet a man 13 years his senior in Teixeira.
After fighting professionally for 20 years, the 42-year-old Brazilian champ has pieced together a six-fight winning streak with five stoppages. The streak most recently included a submission win over Jan Blachowicz in October as the likable Teixeira claimed the belt in one of the year's true feel-good moments.
When the long-toothed champ and eager challenger finally meet in their PPV headliner, I expect someone's string of stoppage wins to continue. I snagged Prochazka a few weeks ago at -190, but I also understand bettors' arguments for Teixeira. Still, regardless of your pick, it'll likely be lights-out for the losing fighter. And therein lies our opportunity.
I expect Prochazka to waste little time finding his marks on the feet and finishing this one early. But even if he doesn't, Teixeira is likely to find his own openings for counters due to Prochazka's porous defense. And the champ's got plenty of show-stopping power of his own.
Plus, if Teixeira takes the fight to the mat — a very real possibility — he should have a substantial advantage thanks to his dangerous and active top game.
I could totally understand bettors using a prop bet of "fight doesn't go to decision" (-500 to -600 at most books) in a parlay. I could even nod approvingly at some fliers on a stoppage in Round 1 (+175) or Round 2 (+300).
But I think the best bang for the buck in the UFC 275 main event is taking under 2.5 rounds at -180. You could find a slightly better price earlier in the week, but for a fight that should end plenty early, I still think it's very playable at that price.
The Pick: Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka under 2.5 rounds (-180 at Caesars)
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