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UFC 278 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Leonardo Santos vs. Jared Gordon: 1 Pre-fight Bet, 1 Live Play (Saturday, August 20)

UFC 278 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Leonardo Santos vs. Jared Gordon: 1 Pre-fight Bet, 1 Live Play (Saturday, August 20) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Jared Gordon

Leonardo Santos vs. Jared Gordon Odds

Santos Odds
+220
Gordon Odds
-270
Over/Under
2.5 (-135 / +105)
Venue
Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City
Time
9 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Odds as of Friday and via Caesars.

Lightweights Leonardo Santos and Jared Gordon will match up at UFC 278 with both fighters looking to bounce back from recent losses.

Gordon suffered a submission loss to Grant Dawson earlier this year, which snapped his three-fight winning streak. Santos suffered back-to-back losses to Dawson and Clay Guida in 2021 after starting his UFC career unbeaten (7-0-1).

Which of these fighters will get back in the win column first?

Below, I’ll provide my analysis and picks for Saturday’s matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Santos Gordon
Record 18-6-1 18-5
Avg. Fight Time 10:26 11:28
Height 6’0″ 5’9″
Weight (pounds) 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach (inches) 75″ 68″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 2/5/80 9/6/88
Sig Strikes Per Min 2.88 5.24
SS Accuracy 47% 57%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.77 3.20
SS Defense 59% 58%
Take Down Avg 1.01 2.22
TD Acc 29% 39%
TD Def 86% 54%
Submission Avg 0.3 0.0

As a 42-year-old lightweight, Santos doesn’t have much win equity outside of Round 1, and his odds to win in the opening frame (+900 at FanDuel) or inside the distance (projected +346, listed +400 at DraftKings) are appealing.

The Brazilian is a powerful striker and a dangerous submission grappler, and it seems likely that he’ll put Gordon in dangerous spots early in this bout.

Gordon relies on his grappling, and Santos has strong takedown defense (86%), mainly when he’s fresh. He could find openings on the feet and win by early knockout or club-and-sub.

Santos is the much bigger man (3 inches taller, seven-inch reach advantage), and he could big-brother Gordon in the first round.

Santos vs. Gordon Pick

Gordon will need to weather the early storm and drag Santos to deep waters, where he should eventually take over minute-winning significantly.

Gordon makes for a solid live bet after Round 1 when Santos’ gas tank should be running on empty.

You could roll those Santos finish props into a Gordon live bet or wait to fire at the live line after the opening round.

The Picks:

  • Leonardo Santos wins in Round 1 (+850, 0.1u at Caesars)
  • Jared Gordon Live after Round 1

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