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UFC 278 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tyson Pedro vs. Harry Hunsucker: Any Value With Event’s Biggest Favorite? (Saturday, August 20)

UFC 278 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tyson Pedro vs. Harry Hunsucker: Any Value With Event’s Biggest Favorite? (Saturday, August 20) article feature image
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Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Harry Hunsucker

Tyson Pedro vs. Harry Hunsucker Odds

Pedro Odds
-800
Hunsucker Odds
+550
Over/Under
1.5 (-350 / +260)
Venue
Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City
Time
10 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+ Pay-per-view
Odds as of Friday and via Caesars.

The UFC 278 main card opens with light heavyweights Tyson Pedro and Harry Hunsucker.

Pedro is coming off a first-round TKO win over Ike Villanueva, and Hunsucker hasn’t made it out of the first round in any of his three fights in the UFC.

With the odds tilted heavily in Pedro’s favor, is there value to be found elsewhere in this fight?

Below, I’ll provide my analysis and picks for Saturday’s matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Pedro Hunsucker
Record 8-3 7-5
Avg. Fight Time 6:32 2:05
Height 6’3″ 6’2″
Weight (pounds) 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach (inches) 79″ 75″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 9/17/91 1/3/89
Sig Strikes Per Min 2.89 3.83
SS Accuracy 64% 52%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.36 6.70
SS Defense 51% 42%
Take Down Avg 0.66 0.0
TD Acc 25% 0%
TD Def 52% 0%
Submission Avg 1.3 2.4

Pedro is the most significant favorite on Saturday’s card. And this fight is incredibly likely to end inside the distance (listed -1200 at Caesars); I can’t recall seeing a three-round fight juiced more heavily to the Under 1.5 Rounds (-350).

In 12 professional bouts, Hunsucker has never been to the second round. He offers poor durability and cardio but is willing to lose on his shield; he goes down swinging in each fight.

A former heavyweight, Hunsucker is making a move down to 205 for this matchup. And perhaps his durability improves against a lower level of power.

Still, Pedro is the bigger man (four-inch reach advantage), and he should be able to hammer Hunsucker with low kicks from the outside or grapple him with relative ease.

Pedro vs. Hunsucker Pick

I don’t see value on either side of the moneyline or the total for this fight.

Regarding winning method props, Hunsucker’s win in Round 1 prop (+1400 at FanDuel) should likely be closer to his moneyline price. And Hunsucker by KO/TKO (projected +892, listed +1100 at FanDuel) technically qualifies as a value too. Still, I’m unwilling to throw the darts on Hunsucker, even for small stakes.

And I feel similarly about Pedro by decision (projected +1068, listed +1200 at Caesars); I’m not banking on Hunsucker to survive 15 minutes for the first time in his career after finally cutting weight.

The Pick: Pass

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