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UFC 278 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Wu Yanan vs. Lucie Pudilova: Public Love for Yanan Justified? (Saturday, August 20)

UFC 278 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Wu Yanan vs. Lucie Pudilova: Public Love for Yanan Justified? (Saturday, August 20) article feature image
Credit:

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC women’s bantamweights Wu Yanan and Lucie Pudilova

Wu Yanan vs. Lucie Pudilova Odds

Wu Odds
+100
Pudilova Odds
-120
Over/Under
2.5 (-380 / +275)
Venue
Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City
Time
10:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+ Pay-per-view
Odds as of Friday and via Caesars.

The lone women's fight at UFC 278 takes place on the main card with Wu Yanan meeting Lucie Pudilova. Both fighters are in need of a win in this fight. Wu has lost three in a row and four out of five, while Pudilova has lost four straight.

Which fighter will end her streak on Saturday night?

Below, I’ll provide my analysis and pick for this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

WuPudilova
Record13-513-7
Avg. Fight Time12:4813:46
Height5'8"5'8"
Weight (pounds)135 lbs.135 lbs.
Reach (inches)66"67"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
Date of birth4/18/966/13/94
Sig Strikes Per Min4.424.15
SS Accuracy40%36%
SS Absorbed Per Min5.054.09
SS Defense49%52%
Take Down Avg0.700.16
TD Acc30%12%
TD Def68%61%
Submission Avg0.20.6

Wu opened around +180 for this matchup but has trended closer to favoritism as we near fight day.

She likely has the grappling advantage over Pudilova, who is returning to the UFC after going 2-5 on her first run through the promotion.

Neither fighter is a particularly adept finisher, and I expect to see a close and competitive affair with highly narrow margins for the judges to assess rounds. As a result, a pick'em price seems appropriate.

Pudilova should win the boxing exchanges and land more damage to the head, while Wu controls range with her kicking game and mixes in takedowns.

Wu vs. Pudilova Pick

If Pudilova can drag Wu into a brawl in the pocket, she can likely pull away on volume.

However, I expect Wu to control the striking exchanges with her footwork and movement and to dictate where the fight takes place with her grappling.

I don't project any value on this fight from a moneyline, total, or winning method perspective. The lines look right to me at current levels, and there's no need to force a bet.

The Pick: Pass

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