UFC 279 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Hakeem Dawodu vs. Julian Erosa: 2 Ways to Capitalize on Probable Stoppage (Saturday, September 10)

UFC 279 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Hakeem Dawodu vs. Julian Erosa: 2 Ways to Capitalize on Probable Stoppage (Saturday, September 10) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC featherweight Julian Erosa

  • Featherweights Hakeem Dawodu and Julian Erosa close out the UFC 279 prelims on ESPNews.
  • Dawodu has been on a run, but after missing weight for the fight, he's in a must-win situation.
  • Sean Zerillo explains why he expects this one to end inside the distance.

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Julian Erosa Odds

Dawodu Odds
Erosa Odds
2.5 (-165 / +120)
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
9:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM.

Will Hakeem Dawodu overcome a weight miss and continue his slow but steady march up the 145-pound division, or will Julian Erosa continue his late-career resurgence with another victory?

Dawodu came in heavy for this bout (149.5 pounds), so a victory on Saturday is even more crucial to maintain his momentum.

His matchup with Erosa closes out the UFC 279 preliminary card, where one featherweight will leave the cage with a crucial victory.

Let's break down the matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time13:068:52
Weight (pounds)145 lbs.145 lbs.
Reach (inches)73"74"
Date of birth7/2/19917/31/1989
Sig Strikes Per Min5.396.29
SS Accuracy50%48%
SS Absorbed Per Min2.726.51
SS Defense59%48%
Take Down Avg0.001.69
TD Acc0%52%
TD Def65%61%
Submission Avg0.00.8

Saturday’s featured prelim is my pick for Fight of the Night.

Dawodu missed weight by 3.5 pounds on Friday, and if a difficult weight cut has any effect on his already suspect gas tank, he could be in for a long night against Erosa – one of the best action fighters on the UFC roster.

Erosa keeps a manic pace (13.1 significant strike attempts per minute) and goes to war with his opponents. He can also change levels and mix in some grappling (3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, 52% accuracy) and look to snatch submissions in scrambles.

Erosa is a bit of a glass cannon, however. He’s extremely hittable (48% striking defense) and not particularly durable either, but he certainly has that junkyard dog mentality.

And while Dawodu has never been knocked out, he has been wobbled by multiple UFC opponents. While he may possess the power advantage, Erosa has superior cardio, and he may take over this fight late if Dawodu slows from a hectic pace.

Dawodu is the more measured and technical fighter, but Erosa rarely allows his opponents to settle into a comfortable rhythm. Typically, his fights are utter chaos.

Dawodu vs. Erosa Pick

While I lean slightly toward Erosa on the moneyline, I would need +200 or better to play his side.

I was surprised, however, to find the Under 2.5 rounds at plus money. I projected the fight to end inside the distance 54% of the time (-116 implied) and would bet that prop at +104 at FanDuel.

In the winning method market, either Dawodu by KO/TKO (projected +243, listed +270 at FanDuel) or Erosa Inside the Distance (projected +374, listed +390 at FanDuel) is a recommended play, depending upon the book.

While I prefer the Under or Ends ITD prop, I’ll also take a small poke at Juicy J’s finish prop.

The Pick: Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+104, 0.5u at FanDuel) | Julian Erosa wins Inside the Distance (+390, 0.1u at FanDuel)

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