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UFC 281 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Andre Petroski vs. Wellington Turman: Plenty of Value With This Underdog (Saturday, November 12)

UFC 281 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Andre Petroski vs. Wellington Turman: Plenty of Value With This Underdog (Saturday, November 12) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Wellington Turman

  • Middleweight Andre Petroski is heavily favored in his UFC 281 fight with Wellington Turman.
  • Those odds may be too dependent on recent results, according to analyst Sean Zerillo.
  • Below, he explains how he's using that information to bet the fight.

Andre Petroski vs. Wellington Turman Odds

Petroski Odds
-200
Turman Odds
+170
Over/Under
1.5 (-140 / +115)
Venue
Madison Square Garden in New York City
Time
8 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPNews
Odds as of Friday and via Caesars.

Andre Petroski is a solid favorite as he enters UFC 281 and a date with Wellington Turman.

The middleweight bout kicks off the ESPNews-televised portion of the card and offers an interesting stylistic matchup.

Let’s see who has the edge.

Tale of the Tape

Petroski Turman
Record 8-2 18-5
Avg. Fight Time 9:45 10:05
Height 6’0″ 6’0″
Weight (pounds) 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach (inches) 73″ 72″
Stance Switch Orthodox
Date of birth 6/12/1991 7/22/1996
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.07 2.96
SS Accuracy 61% 49%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.05 4.04
SS Defense 53% 42%
Take Down Avg 4.10 1.98
TD Acc 47% 20%
TD Def 100% 85%
Submission Avg 4.1 1.0

The pricing on this fight seems like a substantial overcorrection after Petroski submitted Nick Maximov as a +300 underdog in May. I would personally favor Turman over Maximov straight up.

Turman hasn’t competed since February, when he secured a come-from-behind submission win over Misha Cirkunov.

I suspect that Petroski should be able to take down and control Turman in the early stages of the fight (8.7 takedown attempts per 15 minutes), and if he does get the fight to the mat, Turman is content to play guard, stay safe, and hunt for submissions from the bottom.

Turman has yet to tap in 23 professional fights. I trust his jiu-jitsu defense to survive Petroski’s attacks.

Obviously, that’s not ideal for scoring purposes, but Petroski isn’t particularly active with top position. I view Turman as the superior striker, so perhaps he can win rounds on damage before the fight hits the mat.

Petroski throws one punch at a time and loads up for power, but he’s not particularly technical and tends to telegraph his straight punches the longer the fight goes.

Turman likely has the cardio advantage, too, though I don’t necessarily trust his gas tank. Although Petroski has secured a pair of third-round finishes in the UFC, he tends to tire in the second half of his fights and shows poor body language the longer he goes.

Petroski vs. Turman Pick

Turman has the technical and physical tools to keep this fight competitive and to outshine Petroski in certain areas.

He’s also the younger fighter (five years) and has likely improved in the past six months while training alongside Glover Teixeira and Alex Periera in Bethel, Connecticut.

I projected Turman closer to 41.1% (+143 implied) in this matchup, and I would bet the underdog moneyline down to +156 (39.1% implied). You can also look to bet him Live after Round 1 at a superior price.

And I will consider adding more to my position, depending on where the price moves.

The Picks: Wellington Turman (+170, 0.75u at Caesars) | Wellington Turman Live after Round 1

 

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