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UFC 281 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Molly McCann vs. Erin Blanchfield: Target This Decision Prop (Saturday, November 12)

UFC 281 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Molly McCann vs. Erin Blanchfield: Target This Decision Prop (Saturday, November 12) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC women’s flyweight Erin Blanchfield

  • Erin Blanchfield is a big favorite in her UFC 281 prelim bout with Molly McCann.
  • McCann is coming off a pair of big KO wins, but Blanchfield is a big step up in competition for the rising star.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo breaks down the flyweight fight and shares his betting prop for the fight.

Molly McCann vs. Erin Blanchfield Odds

McCann Odds
+300
Blanchfield Odds
-400
Over/Under
2.5 (-225 / +165)
Venue
Madison Square Garden in New York City
Time
8:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPNews
Odds as of Friday and via BetRivers.

“Meatball” Molly McCann looks to continue her quick rise in the ranks, but fellow flyweight Erin Blanchfield enters their UFC 281 preliminary-card bout as a substantial favorite.

Do the sportsbooks have this matchup lined correctly?

Let’s see how they match up.

Tale of the Tape

McCann Blanchfield
Record 9-1 13-4
Avg. Fight Time 12:33 12:32
Height 5’4″ 5’4″
Weight (pounds) 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach (inches) 66″ 62″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 5/4/1999 5/4/1990
Sig Strikes Per Min 5.69 5.84
SS Accuracy 56% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.50 4.84
SS Defense 62% 64%
Take Down Avg 3.99 1.73
TD Acc 66% 35%
TD Def 75% 46%
Submission Avg 0.8 0.5

I expect McCann to be one of the more popular underdog selections this weekend, coming off of a pair of highlight-reel finishes in England. She’s become a fan favorite in the women’s flyweight division.

Blanchfield, one of the more talented prospects in the UFC. is an odd selection as McCann’s next opponent. The New Jersey native is relentless, shooting takedowns (6.04 per 15 minutes) and throwing strikes (10.2 attempts per minute) at high volume.

McCann’s biggest weakness is her defensive grappling (46% takedown defense). Although Blanchfield struggled to land takedowns in her last fight against J.J. Aldrich (0-for-4), I suspect she may have an easier time wrestling or landing judo throws against McCann.

At this stage of her career, my one criticism is that Blanchfield doesn’t blend her skillset together all that well. She’s either striking or grappling, but there’s no in-between distance to her game yet in which she can threaten the takedowns to create openings for strikes or vice versa. And I’m not certain what her athletic ceiling is yet, either. She’s incredibly well-rounded, especially for her age – but I’m not sure she can still make significant improvements to her skillset.

If Molly can deny the takedowns and keep this matchup on the feet, she’s undoubtedly a live underdog.

McCann vs. Blanchfield Pick

Still, I expect Blanchfield to get McCann to the mat in each round, which should be enough to sway the judges unless she finds a finish first.

I see slight value in the fight to reach a decision (projected -208, listed -175 at DraftKings). But most of that value is tied to Blanchfield by decision (projected -145, listed -108 at BetRivers), which is my preferred play. Bet her decision prop up to -133.

Alternatively, consider betting McCann by KO/TKO (projected +843, listed +1000 at FanDuel).

The Pick: Erin Blanchfield wins by Decision (-105, 0.25u at BetRivers)

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