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UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Jailton Almeida: Consider This Parlay Piece (Saturday, January 21)

UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Jailton Almeida: Consider This Parlay Piece (Saturday, January 21) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC heavyweight Jailton Almeida of Brazil

  • Jailton Almeida, the biggest favorite at UFC 283, meets Shamil Abdurakhimov on Saturday's card.
  • Not only is Almeida expected to win, he's expected to do so in very quick fashion with totals all heavily shaded to the under.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo offers one potential betting angle for the heavyweight fight.

Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Jailton Almeida Odds

Abdurakhimov Odds
+675
Almeida Odds
-975
Over/Under
1.5 (+280 / -360)
Venue
Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro
Time
8 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN and ABC
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

Shamil Abdurakhimov looks to hang on to his top-15 ranking when he meets surging heavyweight Jailton Almeida on the UFC 283 preliminary card.

Abdurakhimov is on a three-fight skid heading into his meeting with Almeida, who went 3-0 with three first-round stoppages in his three 2022 UFC bouts.

Is Almeida rightfully a massive favorite in this one? Let’s dig in.

Tale of the Tape

Abdurakhimov Almeida
Record 20-7 17-2
Avg. Fight Time 9:37 4:42
Height 6’3″ 6’3″
Weight (pounds) 235 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach (inches) 76″ 79″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 9/2/1981 6/26/1991
Sig Strikes Per Min 2.60 3.56
SS Accuracy 44% 57%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.80 0.43
SS Defense 58% 11%
Take Down Avg 1.09 7.18
TD Acc 23% 75%
TD Def 47% 50%
Submission Avg 0.2 3.2

Almeida continues to take on heavyweights despite lingering as one of the more exciting prospects for the 205-pound division. Limiting his weight-cutting will help him stay active as he searches for his fourth consecutive win within a calendar year since making his UFC debut.

In three UFC wins – all in the first round – Almeida has out-landed his opponents 65-1 on significant strikes while securing six of his seven takedown attempts,

Most astoundingly, Almeida has spent 96.2% of his octagon time controlling his opponents.

That doesn’t include his Contenders Series appearance, which was his most competitive bout with the promotion:

While Almeida ascends toward title contention, Abdurakhimov has lost three consecutive bouts by knockout.

He has also looked older and slower than his 41 years of age in his past two fights following a two-year layoff during the pandemic.

Abdurakhimov doesn’t have the takedown defense (47%) to keep the fight standing and may not have the defensive grappling to survive on the mat.

Abdurakhimov vs. Almeida Pick

Aside from injury, Almeida seems like a free square in parlays (for however much it increase the payout) or as an anchor in DFS lineups.

Otherwise, I can’t recommend betting on this fight.

The Pick: Parlay (-141, 0.5u at DraftKings): Jailton Almeida (-975), Thiago Moises (-365) and Gilbert Burns (-460)

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