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UFC 283 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Figueiredo vs. Moreno, Burns vs. Magny, McKinney vs. Bonfim, More (January 21)

UFC 283 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Figueiredo vs. Moreno, Burns vs. Magny, McKinney vs. Bonfim, More (January 21) article feature image
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Louis Grasse/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC welterweight Gilbert Burns of Brazil

  • UFC 283, the first UFC pay-per-view of 2023, takes place Saturday with a loaded 15-fight card.
  • In addition to two title fights, the Rio de Janeiro-based card features many Brazilian stars, including the retiring Shogun Rua.
  • Below, our MMA staff shares our UFC 283 best bets, with targets on four different matchups.

Check out our UFC 283 best bets for Saturday’s pay-per-view card at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro.

The 15-fight lineup features two title fights, including Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill for the vacant light-heavyweight title in the main event. Additionally, in the co-main event, reigning flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo meets interim titleholder Brandon Moreno in the duo’s fourth career meeting.

The action starts with early prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) before additional prelims on ABC/ESPN (8 p.m. ET). The main card then streams via ESPN+ PPV (10 p.m. ET).

So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo’s projections below using odds from BetMGM.

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections


Billy Ward: Daniel Marcos vs. Saimon Oliveira

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: 6 p.m. ET

Daniel Marcos meets Saimon Oliveira in the opening bout of UFC 283 in Brazil. Marcos is fresh off a Contender Series win in September, when he used excellent striking, leg kicks and range management to earn a UFC contract with a unanimous decision victory.

Marcos’ leg kicks were a big part of that victory over Brandon Lewis, over whom he had a five-inch reach edge. While he won’t enjoy quite that much of an advantage over Oliveira, he has three inches in height and two inches in reach over the Brazilian, making this a similar matchup for him.

Oliveira is also a Contender Series veteran, who dropped his UFC debut to Tony Gravely a year ago. His Contender Series win was a split decision as well, which isn’t exactly confidence-inspiring.

More so than the results, Oliveira’s fight against Gravely was concerning. He frequently jumped guard for guillotines during grappling sequences, which invariably led to him being stuck in bottom position for extended stretches. He has five guillotine wins on his pro record, but those came against far lower-level competition.

Too often, fighters with weak wrestling jump to guillotines rather than defend takedowns, which could be a problem here. It’s a sign his wrestling is underdeveloped, and Marcos should have the ability to defend his neck in those circumstances. Marcos is also the superior striker – which doesn’t leave a lot of routes to victory for Oliveira.

Marcos was +145 or so on Monday, meaning sharp money is seeing the same things I am and betting on him. That’s another positive sign in his favor. I’d make Marcos a slight favorite here, so I’d bet his line down to +100 odds if it moves further.

The Pick: Daniel Marcos (+125 at DraftKings)


Dann Stupp: Terrance McKinney vs. Ismael Bonfim

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: 7 p.m. ET

I always get a little nervous betting on fighters who have a third of a gas tank. However, when it comes to lightweights Terrance McKinney vs. Ismael Bonfim on the UFC 283 preliminary card, I feel it’s a risk worth taking.

We know what we get with the dynamic McKinney: five minutes of all-out hell, a blitzkrieg of strikes and takedowns and grappling and submission attempts. Then, unfortunately, we don’t get much else once his tank quickly hits empty.

But in McKinney’s bout against LFA and Contender Series vet Ismael Bonfim on Saturday, I don’t think it’s going to matter a whole bunch. Although Bonfim sports an impressive 18-3 record against some fighters with legit experience, he hasn’t recently faced the type of takedown and submission threats that McKinney is going to present him.

Additionally, Bonfim hasn’t lost in nearly nine years, but he suffered a trio of first-round submission losses early in his career.

Bonfim should have a decided cardio edge, but it’s just going to be tough for him to survive that initial onslaught. Even if Bonfim fends off takedowns, he’s still got to worry about McKinney’s frantic speed, which can also set up a flurry of powerful fight-ending strikes.

If McKinney can’t get the stoppage in the first round – even if he looks good and wins the round – you might seriously consider hedging off the initial wager with a live bet on Bonfim. But McKinney should be able to get it done in that opening frame, especially considering he’s shown no hesitation to strike first in the past.

So, in addition to the McKinney moneyline (-122), I’ll also be sprinkling on McKinney to win in Round 1 (+150) and perhaps McKinney by submission (+200) on my personal betting card.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.


Tony Sartori: Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: 11 p.m. ET

On the UFC 283 main card, we get a fascinating welterweight bout between the No. 5 contender Gilbert Burns and No. 12 contender Neil Magny. With a bit of a chip on his shoulder, Burns outlined his frustration in the matchmaking process during his media availability this week.

To simplify his sentiments, he is upset that Belal Muhammad jumped him in the rankings despite the fact that none of the top contenders wants to fight Burns. He went on to give Magny credit for stepping up for this scrap, which should not be surprising given the fact that Magny will fight anyone and is a true professional in this sport.

With that said, there is a reason none of the top contenders wants anything to do with Burns. His only two losses over his last nine UFC bouts came against Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman, two of the best pound-for-pound mixed martial artists on the planet.

In fact, Burns gave Chimaev his hardest challenge (by far) since joining the UFC. Burns is excellent in all facets of the game, though his jiu-jitsu is his greatest strength as a third-degree black belt in BJJ.

With his excellent grappling and high fight IQ, five of Burns’ last seven wins have come on the judges’ scorecards. Given the fact that Magny boasts a four-inch height and nine-inch reach advantage, Burns will almost certainly bring this three-round bout to the mat.

If that is the case, his most likely route to victory is with strong grappling that leads to a decision victory, which is exactly what he did in his wins against Stephen Thompson and Tyron Woodley. Burns gets the opportunity to fight in front of a home crowd with a chip on his shoulder, and I like him to overpower Magny on the ground en route to a decision victory.

Pick: Gilbert Burns via decision (+190)

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.


Sean Zerillo: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno

Senior Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: 11:30 p.m. ET

I bet on reigning flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo – in some fashion or another – in each of the first three legs of this rivalry.

My analysis has been essentially unchanged since that first fight. Given Figueiredo’s particularly complicated weight cut and depleted performance, you can draw a line through the result of the second fight; however, you still have to factor his age – and the potential for another bad weight cut – into the overall handicap.

While Moreno is the more active striker (9.1 to 5.9 significant strike attempts per minute), Figueiredo is far more accurate (56% to 39%) and hits way harder. He has wobbled Moreno multiple times throughout the trilogy and inflicted more damage in most rounds, even while Moreno landed more volume.

And in Brazil, one would have to imagine the likelihood a close round is scored in favor of the hometown champion is undoubtedly higher than it would be for either of their last two encounters – with Moreno partisan crowds just north of Mexico, in Arizona and Southern California.

I would expect to see Moreno mix in more takedown attempts this time (he landed four of eight in the first fight, both in the second fight, and one of two attempts in the third fight).

Still, I view Figueiredo as the favorite and would consider adding more to my position, depending on line movement. You can bet his moneyline to -110, at just under a 2% edge compared to my number (projected -116).

The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo (+105 at DraftKings)

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