UFC 285 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault: 3 Ways to Play the Favorite (Saturday, March 4)

UFC 285 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault: 3 Ways to Play the Favorite (Saturday, March 4) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Marc-Andre Barriault of Canada

  • Many fight fans expect fireworks with tonight's Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault prelim bout at UFC 285.
  • We can count on a high-paced affair, but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll end earlier.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo shares his favorite betting angles for the dynamic middleweight matchup.

Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault Odds

Marquez Odds
Barriault Odds
2.5 (+140 / -180)
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
8 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via Caesars.

Two finishers clash on the UFC 285 preliminary card with Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault.

The middleweights have combined for 19 stoppages in 23 career victories, but both are looking to rebound from recent defeats.

Can we expect another one on Saturday night in the UFC 285 prelims? Let's break it down.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time9:0711:03
Weight (pounds)185 lbs.185 lbs.
Reach (inches)72"74"
Date of birth5/8/19902/18/1990
Sig Strikes Per Min4.185.35
SS Accuracy43%46%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.844.83
SS Defense51%54%
Take Down Avg0.00.30
TD Acc0%25%
TD Def53%61%
Submission Avg3.00.1

While I show value on the over or goes distance props in this matchup (projected +130, listed +168 at FanDuel), this could be a high-paced affair – and potential Fight of the Night contender – between two middleweights who are flawed defensively.

Coming off multiple injuries and a three-year layoff, Marquez took our money in the third round of his fight against Maki Pitolo, securing a submission with under a minute remaining after losing the first two rounds. Following a win over Sam Alvey, Marquez was wobbled multiple times and eventually finished by Gregory Rodrigues last June.

I never love when a fighter comes back in less than a year from a knockout of that caliber, but Barrialut should be closer to Marquez's level of athleticism than the dynamic "Robocop."

Barriault pours volume on his opponents, averaging nearly 12 strike attempts per minute, but he takes nearly one strike for each that he gives (+0.52 significant strike margin). Marquez is a bit more calculated – and loads up a touch more on each of his punches – but he is no more efficient than his opponent (+0.34 strike margin).

Typically, Barriault struggles against grapplers, and while Marquez has an excellent front choke series, he has never completed a takedown in his UFC career.

Marquez vs. Barriault Pick

In addition to the over, or goes the distance prop, I also show value on Barriault's moneyline (projected -166, listed -150). We can combine those opinions into an SGP at DraftKings with Barriault and Over 0.5 Rounds (-125) or Over 1.5 Rounds (+140).

He's the likelier minute winner on volume, and I view the finishing upside as relatively even for either fighter.

I'm inclined to lay the juice, play the over half a round, and take a 25-cent discount. Barriault has two career wins inside the first 2.5 minutes (and a win over Jordan Wright at 2:36 of the first round). He is not a one-punch knockout artist – but an attritional finisher – and Marquez has never gone away quickly in his career.

If you're interested in juicier prices, the fight goes the distance prop (+168 at FanDuel), and Barriault by decision (projected +167, listed +285 at BetRivers) offer a significant edge relative to listed odds.

I will bet the Over 0.5 Rounds SGP, sprinkle Barriault by Decision, and look to bet him live after Round 1 if he happens to fall behind.

The Picks:

  • Marc-Andre Barriault Wins by Decision (+270, 0.1u at Caesars)
  • SGP: Barriault & Over 1.5 Rounds (-125, Risk 0.5u at DraftKings)
  • Marc-Andre Barriault Live after Round 1

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