UFC 286 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Lerone Murphy vs. Gabriel Santos: Fade the Inflated Hometown Favorite? (Saturday, March 18)

UFC 286 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Lerone Murphy vs. Gabriel Santos: Fade the Inflated Hometown Favorite? (Saturday, March 18) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC featherweight Lerone Murphy of England

Lerone Murphy vs. Gabriel Santos Odds

Murphy Odds-175
Santos Odds+150
Over/Under2.5 (-150 / +120)
VenueThe O2 Arena in London
Time2:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings

In a preliminary card bout at UFC 286 on Saturday, Lerone Murphy squares off against Gabriel Santos.

In this featherweight fight, Murphy gets the honor of fighting in front of his home country while Santos can play spoiler in his UFC debut.

Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Murphy vs. Santos pick.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time9:53n/a
Weight (pounds)145 lbs.145 lbs.
Reach (inches)73"70"
Date of birth7/22/199111/28/1996
Sig Strikes Per Min2.580.00
SS Accuracy42%0%
SS Absorbed Per Min1.900
SS Defense62%0%
Take Down Avg0.760.00
TD Acc33%0%
TD Def36%0%
Submission Avg0.80.0

Starting off his UFC tenure in impressive fashion, Murphy boasts a 3-0-1 record since joining the promotion. A boxer by craft, Murphy prefers to stand and bang rather than grapple.

He carries some serious power and a relentless tenacity to attack both the head and body, and seven of his 11 professional wins have come via knockout. Although Murphy prefers to box, he is a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is capable of defending himself on the mat.

Across the octagon, Santos makes his UFC debut as the underdog. Jumping over to this promotion after two straight knockout wins in LFA, Santos looks to build upon his spotless 10-0 professional record.

Those two wins in LFA were huge in displaying the well-roundness of his game and for someone who many pegged as "just a grappler" in the early stages of his MMA career.  A solid prospect, Santos won the LFA 145-pound title in that latest knockout before earning a contract with the UFC.

Santos took this fight on short notice after Nathaniel Wood pulled out of the bout with an injury, and this is a great opportunity to show that he belongs in this promotion, as well. Stylistically, this fight is very intriguing as both guys can handle themselves well on both the feet and the mat.

Murphy vs. Santos Pick

I do not have an official pick for this scrap and am personally not betting it, but there are a few angles I like for those who may want to sprinkle on a few wagers. In terms of a winner, I would lean toward Santos at +150, which seems like an enormously generous price between two guys who are relatively even.

Personally, I think Murphy's price is a bit inflated due to the fact that he is fighting in England, which absolutely is an advantage, but not enough to justify his -175 line in my opinion. Due to his experience in the UFC, Murphy is rightfully priced as the favorite, but Santos burst onto the LFA scene and won the 145-title within two fights.

Both of these guys are undefeated, and the majority of their wins are statement inside-the-distance victories. My leans are the Santos moneyline, as well as under 2.5 rounds at plus-money, though I am sitting this fight out and am going to enjoy the battle between these two up-and-comers.

The Leans: Gabriel Santos (+150 at DraftKings) | Murphy-Santos under 2.5 rounds (+125 at Caesars)

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