UFC 297 Odds: Sean Zerillo’s Betting Picks, Previews, Predictions for All 12 Fights (Saturday, January 20)

The UFC 297 odds board for Saturday's pay-per-view event in Toronto features 12 fights, including a pair of title bouts atop the card.

Below, I've made my UFC 297 picks tonight and have put together all 12 fight breakdowns for the event at Scotiabank Arena in Canada.

The UFC 297 preliminary card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET (3:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before moving to ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET for additional prelims. The main card then kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV (cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights on the UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis fight card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

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Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 297 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 12 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC 297 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 297 Odds

Malcolm Gordon vs. Jimmy Flick

Crowdsourced Projections: Malcolm Gordon (59.7%)

Saturday's opener features a pair of fighters who, if I ranked every UFC fighter, would be in the bottom 1% for durability (11 combined knockout losses between them in 43 professional fights).

Malcolm Gordon is the superior striker of the pair with five knockout wins. The Canadian generally prefers to grapple to protect his chin. However, he won't have to worry about any power coming from Jimmy Flick, and Gordon's best game plan would be to sprawl and brawl against a submission specialist.

Flick is the better wrestler and more likely to get on top early, justifying a bet on the underdog side at plus money.

This fight opened around a pick'em, but the Gordon market has taken off recently, climbing to more than -200 (66.7% implied) as of writing, an adjustment of more than 10% in implied win probability over the past week (-130 or 56.5% last Friday).

Line movement like that makes me wonder if Flick is carrying an undisclosed injury.

Gordon ultimately missed weight on Friday, his second consecutive weight miss at flyweight.

I also have difficulty justifying the juicy price of the fight to reach a decision (projected +213, listed +275) compared to the divisional average (54%). While both fighters are chinny, neither carries much power of their own, and there should be a lot of stalling/stalemate time if these two grapple for extended stretches.

I like both Flick on the moneyline (projected +148, listed +180) and the fight to reach a decision (+275). I'm inclined to bet against the Gordon finish and split a wager between these two. However, if Flick is indeed injured – which would explain the drastic line movement – he is likelier to get finished, and I'd lose both bets. I'll bet Flick for now and think more about adding the distance prop.

Additionally, in the prop market, I like Flick by submission (projected +254, listed +400) or Gordon to win by decision (projected +319, listed +550).

Bets

• Jimmy Flick (+180, 0.25u) at Caesars

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Crowdsourced Projections: Jasmine Jasudavicius (77.9%)

The two camps agreed to move the bout to 135 pounds instead of flyweight (125) on Friday, which certainly helps Priscila Cachoeira, who would have missed the 126-pound limit and regularly looks for sneaky advantages against her opponents.

This matchup is a binary striker vs. grappler fight, where the Canadian, Jasmine Jasudavicius, should be able to exploit Cachoeira's shoddy takedown defense (65%) and bottom game with her offensive wrestling.

Jasmine isn't out of place on the feet, but Cachoeira carries much more power, is far more aggressive, and is much likelier to damage her opponent in striking exchanges.

Jasudavicius has an effective point-fighting style, and if she manages her gas tank and times her entries well, she can justify her steep price tag in this matchup. However, Cachoeira has vastly more finishing upside.

I project value both on the fight to reach a decision (projected -173, listed -125) and for Jasudavicius to win a decision (projected -120, listed -105); I'd rather bet the former, considering the minimal price differential and the potential that Cachoeira steals a decision with a pair of timely knockdowns or otherwise damaging strikes.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (-125, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars

Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson

Crowdsourced Projections: Yohan Lainesse (53.5%)

Yohan Lainesse is a flawed fighter; he's neither a technical striker nor an effective grappler. He carries considerable power for about five to seven minutes, and then his cardio falls off a cliff.

Sam Patterson, who is moving up from lightweight, is a bit chinny and will undoubtedly be susceptible to an early knockout loss from a powerful opponent. Still, he has vastly more ways of winning this fight, and I expect the change in weight class to improve his durability. Patterson had no business cutting to 155 pounds at 6-foot-3.

Despite the weight move, Patterson remains the taller and longer fighter, and he has Lainesse covered everywhere skills-wise in this matchup aside from pure punching power. And he only needs to be wary of that for about one round.

Patterson is my favorite bet on the card; my model put his moneyline at +115, but there's an argument that he should be favored, given the enormity of his win probability beyond Round 1. Bet Patterson pre-fight and look to add more live after the opening round.

In the prop market, consider betting Patterson by submission (projected +330, listed +380) to win in Round 2 (+750) or Round 3 (+1400).

Bets

• Sam Patterson (+130, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Sam Patterson wins in Round 2 (+650, 0.1u) at Caesars
• Sam Paterson wins in Round 3 (+1200, 0.05u) at Caesars
• Sam Patterson Live after Round 1

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Gillian Robertson vs. Polyana Viana

Crowdsourced Projections: Gillian Robertson (72.3%)

The Canadian Gillian Robertson opened closer to -170 (63% implied) for this matchup, and the market has moved around 12% in her direction, closer to -300 (75% implied) over the past couple of weeks.

Polyana Viana is all too willing to fight off her back (43% takedown defense) and hunt for submissions from guard, which won't be effective against an opponent with a lethal top game like Robertson.

Viana is the bigger and better athlete with a four-inch reach advantage and superior striking ability; if she can deny takedowns from Robertson, sprawl and brawl, and turn this into a striking affair, she will out-fight her underdog odds in this matchup.

Depending on the book, Robertson to win via submission (projected +131, listed +145) or inside the distance (projected -118, listed +100) is enticing. However, Viana by decision (projected +501, listed +750) is equally appealing.

When presented with equivalent choices on this card, I'm going to side with the Canadian fighters to take care of business at home. Plus money for a Robertson finish with her moneyline at -300 seems worth betting.

Bets

• Gillian Robertson wins Inside the Distance (+100, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Serhiy Sidey vs. Ramon Taveras

Crowdsourced Projections: Serhiy Sidey (61.1%)

These bantamweight debutants will rematch their fight from Contender Series, in which Serhiy Sidey scored a knockout via early stoppage halfway through the first round.

Sidey closed as low as -180 with Ramon Taveras as high as +165 for the first fight, roughly the same price range for the rematch. However, the first fight was lined around -190 (65.5%) to end inside the distance while Saturday's rematch is closer to -300 (75% implied) or higher.

Sidey is both the taller and longer fighter and the more well-rounded and technical martial artist. Conversely, Taveras is seemingly the faster and more explosive athlete.

This is an extremely high-variance matchup between young opponents with limited data points. Both had their moments in the first fight and comparing the quality of regional performances across different promotions can be difficult.

I lean toward Taveras (projected +155, listed +160) from a moneyline perspective, but I would prefer that line to blow out closer to +170 before jumping in.

I also lean toward the Over 1.5 Rounds (-118), or the fight to reach a decision (projected +233, listed +230) with the fight at bantamweight (50% decision rate) and with the drastic adjustment on those prices relative to the first fight.

Unless there's further movement toward the plus-money sides of those markets, I'm happy to pass on this matchup.

Bets

• Pass

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Charles Jourdain vs. Sean Woodson

Crowdsourced Projections: Charles Jourdain (65%)

The relentlessly exciting Charles Jourdain may get the biggest pop of any Canadian on Saturday's card. The Montreal native will have to overcome significant discrepancies in height (five inches) and reach (nine inches) against the lanky Sean Woodson.

Jourdain will look to crash the pocket and get inside of Woodson's range. While Woodson can jab you from across the octagon, he doesn't carry a lot of power – and won't have much to deter Jourdain from closing the distance and staying in his face.

That pressure should wear on Woodson's gas tank and eventually lead to dominant moments for Jourdain down the stretch of this fight if not an attritional finish.

Jourdain is also the superior grappler in this fight, and I expect him to threaten submissions if the pair hits the mat. He's also typically the one defending entries – and may feel more accessible in the striking to let punches and kicks loose without the threat of spending significant time on his back.

Aside from reach, Jourdain seemingly has Woodson covered in this fight. He may struggle to find his range early, but that could lead to a live opportunity at a better number.

From a pre-fight perspective, I like Jourdain by submission (projected +515, listed +600), to win in Round 3 (+1000), or a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with the Over 1.5 Rounds (+120) at DraftKings – which is a better option than Jourdain in Round 3 or by Decision (+140) at the same book.

Bets

• SGP: Jourdain & Over 1.5 Rounds (+120, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Charles Jourdain wins in Round 3 (+1000, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Charles Jourdain Live after Round 1

Brad Katona vs. Garrett Armfield

Crowdsourced Projections: Brad Katona (67.8%)

Brad Katona, a Winnipeg native and the only two-time winner of The Ultimate Fighter, should have advantages in speed, grappling and cardio over Garrett Armfield, who carries a six-inch reach advantage and considerably more power.

Katona is the more technical striker and better offensive wrestler; however, he may struggle with Armfield's physicality early and potentially get cracked on the feet.

If he can survive that opening round, I expect Katona to take over in the final 10 minutes with superior output and pressure. And if he does fall behind after Round 1, consider a live bet on Katona.

It's challenging to lay a significant price on Katona when Armfield is the more dangerous fighter with vastly more finishing upside. However, I show value on Katona to win by decision (projected +111, listed +125) but would prefer to bet a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with the Over 1.5 Rounds (-120) at DraftKings, as opposed to his decision prop or his odds to win in Round 3 or by decision (-115 at the same book).

Bets

• SGP: Brad Katona & Over 1.5 Rounds (-120, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings
• Brad Katona Live after Round 1

Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev

Crowdsourced Projections: Movsar Evloev (58.7%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's pay-per-view opener – and my favorite fight on the card – check out the full Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

I think Billy made the perfect selection for betting on this fight. Allen has vastly more finishing upside. The only alternative I would offer is Allen's point spread (+3.5), where it's available; he does enough to win at least one round in this matchup without getting finished.

However, I understand you may not have either of these prop betting options available to you.

Apart from his dominant win against Dan Ige, Evloev hasn't necessarily looked the part of an undefeated 17-0 fighter and future title contender, as many assume him to be. He's a highly well-rounded martial artist who does well to mix his striking and grappling. However, Evloev seems to lack the power, submission ability or killer instinct to finish high-level opponents regularly – and the margins in his rounds, fights and decisions are often closer than they should be.

Additionally, he's been wobbled by strikes in several fights and put in dangerous positions on the ground. 

Arnold Allen is the superior striker in this matchup and is getting some severe class relief on the feet after facing the likes of Max Holloway and Calvin Kattar.

While Evloev is the better wrestler – and retains all of the grappling upside in this fight – we last saw Allen face a grappler in 2018 (Mads Burnell); undoubtedly, this top-five featherweight has improved his defensive grappling in the past half-decade. 

Evloev's favoritism is predicated on a grappling advantage – and Allen's perceived weakness in this area is based on old tape. Betting Allen as an underdog bakes in the likelihood that he has improved in those areas in the prime of his career, but he also provides a high-variance style.

Allen can win fights while getting outstruck in each round by knocking down opponents multiple times with his potent left hand. He should land the far more damaging shots in this fight and have opportunities to swing rounds in his favor with brief moments, even if he's getting out grappled. He's also the home fighter in this matchup, training out of Tristar in Montreal. 

Bet Allen on the moneyline down to +155 (projected +142), and consider adding him in the finish-only market or on the point spread (+3.5) where available.

Bets

• Arnold Allen (+168, 0.5u) at WynnBet
• Finish Only: Arnold Allen (-135, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Crowdsourced Projections: Chris Curtis (63.4%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this main card middleweight fight, check out the full Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

I generally agree with Billy's assessment and view Curtis as the value side of the fight. However, I'd prefer to bet him to win by knockout (projected +215, listed +270) or inside the distance (projected +163, listed +240) instead of laying the juice on his moneyline, especially in Canada.

Both fighters are accustomed to high-volume matchups, averaging more than 10 significant strike attempts for and against per minute. Curtis is the superior pocket boxer, and I expect his offensive body shots and head-striking defense to fracture the Canadian Barriault.

However, if this fight goes the full 15 minutes, there may be minimal separation between these two in terms of striking stats, and I'd rather be holding an underdog ticket – with the crowd behind me – at that point.

Barriault is typically durable and has the offensive grappling upside in this fight; even if he's only able to stall Curtis against the cage and make the fight dirty, that justifies him a bit more at plus money.

That said, I expect Barriault to press forward and Curtis to punish him on the counter for the vast majority of this matchup. Play his knockout prop, or bet him to win in Round 2 (+900) or Round 3 (+1400) after he continually rips Barriault to the body.

Bets

• Chris Curtis wins Inside the Distance (+240, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott

Crowdsourced Projections: Mike Malott (73.8%)

With a pay-per-view card in Toronto, the UFC will do its best to highlight its top Canadian prospects, led by Ontario native Mike Malott, who is 4-0 under the promotional banner with each of those wins in seven minutes or less while earning consecutive performance bonuses.

Malott will face his stiffest test to date in Neil Magny, a veteran gatekeeper who has turned away fraudulent prospects throughout more than 30 fights under the promotional banner.

While Magny appears on the back end of his career – and has shown declining physicality in his recent matchups – he owns a seven-inch reach advantage in this fight, is the much better technical striker, and likely has superior cardio.

Malott is the better grappler and will look to expose Magny's subpar takedown defense (55%). However, if he doesn't finish the fight within the first half, Malott may fade down the stretch and allow the underdog to rally.

I projected Magny closer to +280 and view him as the value side of this fight, with the market currently at +300 or better. However, Magny doesn't have the power to keep Malott off him early.

I'm interested in taking a live shot on the underdog, but it isn't easy to imagine a scenario in which you don't find a better live price on Magny after Round 1. He needs to survive the early onslaught, stay safe on the bottom for the first five to seven minutes, and look to return to his feet and swing the momentum of the fight by the end of the second round.

In addition to his moneyline, I show slight value on Magny by decision (projected +487, listed +540) or the fight to reach a decision (projected +182, listed +205); still, I'd prefer the live entry, or I'd target his Round 2 (+2400) or Round 3 (+2800) props pre-fight.

However, if I'm betting anything pre-fight, it should be tied to Malott. He can do enough on top in the first two rounds to win minutes against Magny and earn his first career decision (projected +442, listed +500).

Bets

• Mike Malott wins by Decision (+500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Neil Magny Live after Round 1

Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

Crowdsourced Projections: Mayra Bueno Silva (59%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's co-main event and women's bantamweight title bout, check out the full Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Raquel Pennington preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

Pennington is the larger fighter (one-inch advantage in both height and reach) and the more natural bantamweight – whereas Bueno Silva previously competed at flyweight.

"Rocky" has faced a higher level of competition, previously fought for UFC gold, and is the better minute-winner in this matchup.

Bueno Silva has clearly leveled up – and filled out in the division – since moving her camp to American Top Team in 2022. "Sheetara" has a speed and athleticism advantage with significantly higher finishing upside than Pennington.

Pennington by decision or Bueno Silva inside the distance seems to be the most likely outcomes, and the betting market agrees with that assessment. I would rather bet Pennington on the moneyline than play the fight to reach a decision at a pick'em price, but by the same logic, I'd also prefer to take Bueno Silva inside the distance (+140) rather than laying juice on the under.

Pennington has proven herself both durable and difficult to submit throughout her professional career, and I lean her direction in this matchup in a division with a finish rate below 40%.

I projected Pennington's moneyline at +144; take anything at +150 or better. Additionally, either take Pennington's decision prop starting at +225 (projected +205) or include that prop on round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Racquel Pennington (+150, 0.5u) at Caesars

Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis

Crowdsourced Projections: Dricus Du Plessis (53%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main event and middleweight title bout, check out my Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland preview.

In short, I would bet Du Plessis at -105 (51.2% implied) or better (projected -113).

Concerning props, some books have a good number on Strickland by decision (projected +325, listed +400) while others offer a juicy number on Du Plessis by submission (projected +440, listed +550) – either straight or as a round-robin piece. I'd also consider betting Du Plessis to win inside the distance (projected +122, listed +130 at DraftKings).

You can also consider betting Strickland to win in Round 4 (+1800) or Round 5 (+2500), assuming Du Plessis will fade down the stretch.

I want action on Du Plessis pre-fight, and I'd look to add Strickland live at plus money after Rounds 1, 2 or 3.

Bets

• Dricus Du Plessis (-102, 0.5u) at FanDuel
• Sean Strickland Live after Rounds 1, 2, or 3

UFC 297 Bets

Moneyline Bets

• Jimmy Flick (+180, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Sam Patterson (+130, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Arnold Allen (+168, 0.5u) at WynnBet
• Racquel Pennington (+150, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Dricus Du Plessis (-102, 0.5u) at FanDuel

Prop Bets and Totals

• Cachoeira/Jasudavicius, Fight Goes to Decision (-125, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars
• Sam Patterson wins in Round 2 (+650, 0.1u) at Caesars
• Sam Paterson wins in Round 3 (+1200, 0.05u) at Caesars
• Gillian Robertson wins Inside the Distance (+100, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Charles Jourdain wins in Round 3 (+1000, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Finish Only: Arnold Allen (-135, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Chris Curtis wins Inside the Distance (+240, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Mike Malott wins by Decision (+500, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Parlays

• SGP: Jourdain & Over 1.5 Rounds (+120, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• SGP: Brad Katona & Over 1.5 Rounds (-120, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings

Live Bets

• Sam Patterson Live after Round 1
• Charles Jourdain Live after Round 1
• Brad Katona Live after Round 1
• Neil Magny Live after Round 1
• Sean Strickland Live after Rounds 1, 2, or 3