UFC 297 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson: 4 Plays for Prelim Bout (Saturday, January 20)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC lightweight Sam Patterson of England
Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson at UFC 297 on Saturday, Jan. 20 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Yohan Lainasse and Sam Patterson are both looking to gain some ground in the UFC welterweight ranks.
Canada's Lainasse will have the crowd behind him as he looks to improve upon a mundane 1-2 run in the UFC. He now takes on former lightweight Patterson, who's looking for some new life with a move up to 170 pounds.
Here's a look at the Lainesse vs. Patterson odds and my betting pick for the preliminary card fight.
Tale of the Tape
| Lainesse | Patterson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-2 | 10-2-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:29 | 5:17 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/14/1992 | 4/30/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.34 | 2.56 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 36% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.44 | 3.98 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 0% |
| TD Def | 80% | 33% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 2.8 |
Lainesse is a flawed fighter; he's neither a technical striker nor an effective grappler. He carries considerable power for about five to seven minutes, and then his cardio falls off a cliff.
Patterson, who is moving up from lightweight, is a bit chinny and will undoubtedly be susceptible to an early knockout loss from a powerful opponent.
Still, he has vastly more ways of winning this fight, and I expect the change in weight class to improve his durability. Patterson had no business cutting to 155 pounds at 6-foot-3.
Despite the weight move, Patterson remains the taller and longer fighter, and he has Lainesse covered everywhere skills-wise in this matchup aside from pure punching power. And he only needs to be wary of that for about one round.
Lainesse vs. Patterson Pick
Patterson is my favorite bet on the card; my model put his moneyline at +115, but there's an argument that he should be favored, given the enormity of his win probability beyond Round 1.
Bet Patterson pre-fight and look to add more live after the opening round.
In the prop market, consider betting Patterson by submission (projected +330, listed +380) to win in Round 2 (+750) or Round 3 (+1400).
The Picks:
- Sam Patterson (+130, 0.5u) at Caesars
- Sam Patterson in Round 2 (+650, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Sam Paterson in Round 3 (+1200, 0.05u) at Caesars
- Sam Patterson Live after Round 1
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