UFC 298 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern: Expect Grappler to Poke Holes (Saturday, February 17)
Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC women’s strawweight Mackenzie Dern
Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
The UFC 298 preliminary card concludes with a featured ESPN featured attraction between strawweight contenders Lemos and Dern.
This bout could be one of the night's more technical showcases, but Lemos is the clearly favored fighter at sportsbooks.
Here's my Lemos vs. Dern pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Lemos | Dern | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-3-1 | 13-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:11 | 13:04 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115.5 lbs. | 116 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 63" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/22/1987 | 3/24/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.66 | 4.21 |
| SS Defense | 42% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.82 | 0.77 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 14% |
| TD Def | 55% | 40% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 1.4 |
I have typically bet against both of these strawweights during their UFC tenures, and I was initially inclined to pass on betting on this fight.
However, I project slight value on the underdog, Dern, with the grappling upside and higher decision equity in a binary fight.
Dern struggled as a -205 favorite and sustained her first career finish loss in her last fight against Jessica Andrade, somewhat stylistically similar to Amanda Lemos. However, Andrade has superior first-layer takedown defense and much better cardio than Lemos.
Like Andrade, Lemos is a much more technical and potent striker than Dern.
However, Lemos rarely separates from her opponents on volume and tends to wilt in the third round; Dern should be the more enthusiastic and proactive fighter down the stretch of this contest.
Dern also has much potential to win a 10-8 round via dominance in the grappling exchanges; Lemos has some slick chokes in her arsenal but has shown subpar takedown defense (55%) and an unwillingness to fight off of her back as she tires (spent 16:07, or 64% of her title fight vs. Weili Zhang getting controlled).
While Dern is an inefficient offensive wrestler (14% career takedown accuracy), she averages three attempts per round and can backpack opponents and hold a body triangle for long stretches. I trust the grappler to play to her strengths. Dern has reunited with her old striking coach but also made clear her intentions to pressure-grapple Lemos – "like Khabib" – from the outset.
Lemos will land the more brutal strikes, but Dern's grappling efforts should set a pace that Lemos will struggle to maintain; if Lemos doesn't secure a finish, the margins for her winning a decision are narrow.
Lemos vs. Dern Pick
Dern should be much more comfortable on the feet against a slower, flat-footed power striker like Lemos than she was against the more evasive, quicker and aggressive Andrade.
And Dern should be able to poke holes in Lemos' defensive grappling and weaponize her gas tank against a 36-year-old strawweight (average division age: 31).
Take Dern to +110 prefight, and look to add more live after Round 1.
The Picks: Mackenzie Dern (+116, 0.5u) at FanDuel | Dern Live after Round 1
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