UFC 298 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Geoff Neal vs. Ian Machado Garry: Take This Fight Prop at Even Money (Saturday, February 17)
Paul Rutherford/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC welterweight Ian Machado Garry
Geoff Neal vs. Ian Machado Garry Odds
| 11 p.m. ET | |
Here's everything you need to know about Geoff Neal vs. Ian Machado Garry at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
This welterweight main-card attraction was originally booked for August but fell apart. Now, they're booked again with Garry looking to add another veteran name to his undefeated ledger.
Here's my Neal vs. Garry pick and prediction for UFC 298.
Tale of the Tape
| Neal | Garry | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-5 | 13-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:36 | 11:13 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170.5 lbs. | 170.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 74" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/28/1990 | 11/17/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.2 | 6.7 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.60 | 3.58 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.51 | 0.67 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 75% |
| TD Def | 87% | 69% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Neal is a popular underdog selection this week for two reasons: He carries knockout power against a potentially chinny opponent, and a large percentage of the fanbase wants to see Garry get chinned.
Although Neal has a one-inch reach advantage, a distance kickboxing match should favor Garry, who has longer legs and is the superior kicker.
Neal needs to track down Garry, who has excellent footwork and elusive moments, crash the pocket, and force boxing exchanges, where he can hope to wobble Garry and change the outlook of the fight.
Although Garry is undefeated (13-0), he's been poorly wobbled in the UFC multiple times – most famously by Song Kenan – and though he is a very technical offensive striker, his height leaves him open defensively (53% striking defense), creating opportunities for Neal – and future opponents – to land a crushing blow.
Neal tends to struggle with more mobile strikers – like Stephen Thompson – and he has success when opponents stand in front of him (his last two wins over Vicente Luque and Santiago Ponzinibbio).
While Garry is generally on his bike, he has lapses in fights when he bites down on the mouthpiece and exchanges; doing so with Neal could cost him dearly.
Neal vs. Garry Pick
I expect the fight to reach a decision 55% of the time (-121 implied) more often than the odds suggest; bet that prop to -110.
I give Neal substantially higher finishing equity, but I expect Garry to generally control their fight's range and pace and keep Neal chasing him around the octagon for the majority of three rounds.
He is also likelier than Neal to land offensive takedowns and control position on the mat.
I expect Garry to win a decision more often than the odds suggest (projected +105, listed +150). If you're betting on the Neal side, target his knockout prop (projected +406, listed +350) or wait for a moneyline price closer to +225.
The Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (+100, 0.5u) at WynnBet
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