UFC 298 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera: Take a Shot on Submission Prop (Saturday, February 17)
Suhaimi Abdullah/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC bantamweight Rinya Nakamura of Japan
Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Road to the Octagon bantamweight winner Nakamura looks to keep his perfect record intact when he meets The Ultimate Fighter vet Vera.
Here's my Nakamura vs. Vera pick and prediction for the UFC 298 preliminary card.
Tale of the Tape
| Nakamura | Vera | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-0 | 11-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:20 | n/a |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135.5 lbs. | 135.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 69" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/23/1995 | 11/5/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 0% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.78 | 0.00 |
| SS Defense | 70% | 0% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.23 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 85% | 0% |
| TD Def | 100% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 2.8 | 0.0 |
Nakamura is the heaviest favorite on Saturday's card, reaching banana-peel pricing against short-notice debutant Vera, who is old (36) for the bantamweight division.
Both fighters prefer to grapple, but Nakamura is a far superior athlete, a decorated freestyle wrestler, and a fascinating prospect in the bantamweight division after transitioning from wrestling to MMA in 2020.
Vera is comfortable on his back, where I expect him to be for most of the fight, but Nakamura is a bit unorthodox with his control. He prefers north-south or side control against opponents rather than going for half-guard or mount more consistently.
Nakamura vs. Vera Pick
To be blunt, I don't think that Vera is UFC-caliber. Brad Katona dominated him on The Ultimate Fighter, and Vera was previously signed by the UFC – and cut – as a short-notice replacement for a card last year.
The promotion doesn't view him as anything other than a warm body.
Nakamura should run through this type of opponent on the ground if he is a serious prospect.
Take a shot on Nakamura by submission (projected +265, listed +275), inside the distance (projected -177, listed -175), or pass on this fight.
The Pick: Rinya Nakamura wins by Submission (+275, 0.2u) at FanDuel
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