UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for C.J. Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev: Prop Bet for Flyweight Bout (Saturday, March 9)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty. Pictured: UFC flyweight Assu Almabayev
C.J. Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the C.J. Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev odds at UFC 299 – with our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.
UFC 299's lone flyweight fight should be an entertaining one between two young rising prospects when Vergara clashes with Almabayev.
Both fighters are coming off victories, and the winner of this one is likely could get another step up in the competitive 125-pound division.
But there's a small issue with one of the fighters.
Tale of the Tape
| Vergara | Almabayev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-4-1 | 18-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:41 | 8:11 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 127 lbs.* | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/18/1991 | 1/25/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.01 | 3.18 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 65% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.01 | 0.49 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 77% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 3.67 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 40% |
| TD Def | 74% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 3.7 |
*Missed weight and fined 30% of purse
Vergara missed weight for the third time in his UFC career on Friday, and he has a tough matchup against Assu Almabaev, who excels at taking the back of opponents and choking them out.
It's a position Vergara has consistently found himself defending throughout his UFC run.
Vergara has shown excellent cardio and survival skills to generate a 4-2 record under the UFC banner (including a win on Contender Series). Still, he's consistently in trouble, especially early, and he tends to make fight-IQ mistakes to put himself in bad positions, particularly on the mat.
Vergara vs. Almabayev Pick
I don't project value on either side of the moneyline for this matchup.
However, depending on the book, I show slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -172) and Almabaev by submission (projected +100), and I'd play it at +110 or better.
Vergara relied upon cardio and durability to generate victories in the UFC. Still, Almabayev is likely the better athlete in both areas, and Vergara's weight miss could further strain his gas tank.
The Pick: Assu Almabayev wins by Submission (+150, 0.25u) at WynnBet
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