UFC 301 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Ismael Bonfim vs Vinc Pichel: Consider This Slick Live Bet (Saturday, Saturday, May 4)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Vinc Pichel
Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Ismael Bonfim vs Vinc Pichel odds at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4.
At age 28, Ismaael Bonfim is two years older than his brother Gabriel, a UFC welterweight.
However, he's 13 years younger than his opponent, Vinc "From Hell" Pichel, who will make his 11th (and potentially final) walk to the UFC octagon on Saturday at age 41, after appearing on The Ultimate Fighter in 2012.
Here's my Bonfim vs. Pichel pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Bonfim | Pichel | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-4 | 14-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:02 | 12:00 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 156 lbs. | 156 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/28/1995 | 11/23/1982 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.91 | 3.56 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.66 | 2.50 |
| SS Defense | 76% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.11 | 3.00 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 54% |
| TD Def | 81% | 23% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Regardless of Bonfim's steep price tag, younger fighters are typically undervalued by about 12% in these matchups.
When at least a decade separates UFC opponents, the younger fighter wins 70% of the time at average odds closer to 58%.
If I extend the range to a 12-year gap, the younger fighter wins 72% of the time, at average odds of 60.6%.
Pichel has the tools to trouble Bonfim. Despite his age, he is incredibly durable, offers excellent cardio, and has a well-rounded skill set. He's also the slightly bigger man.
That said, Pichel was too accepting of takedowns and the bottom position in his most recent loss to Mark O. Madsen, who later retired, and that was two years ago. Pichel may look stiff after a lengthy layoff.
Bonfim vs. Pichel Pick
Bonfim is a significantly quicker athlete, but he doesn't have the best gas tank and often tires himself out by fighting a suboptimal game plan. He's the apparent "A" side in this fight; the UFC is giving him a 41-year-old opponent (average divisional age of 33) to bounce back from a loss to Benoit Saint Denis.
Still, if Bonfim doesn't get Pichel out of there early, don't be surprised if Vinc – despite his age – can work his way back into the fight against a younger man.
If Pichel shows that he can deny the takedowns or if can scramble back to his feet in the opening round, I'd be interested in a live wager. I will pass if Pichel accepts bottom position, as he did in the Madsen fight.
I projected this fight to reach a decision 50% of the time; I'd take +110 or better (small).
The Picks: Fight Goes to Decision (+110 at Caesars, 0.25u) | Vinc Pichel Live after Round 1
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