Derrick Lewis vs. Aleksei Oleinik Betting Odds, Pick and Prediction: Saturday’s UFC Fight Night Main Event

Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Aleksei Oleinik of Russia.

  • Derrick Lewis is a heavy favorite (-200 odds) over Aleksei Oleinik in Saturday night's main UFC event (approx. 11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
  • The betting market is expecting a relatively short fight, as the over/under has been set at 1.5 rounds.
  • Below you'll find Sean Zerillo's full betting preview for the event, including the prop bets you should be taking.

Derrick Lewis vs. Aleksei Oleinik Odds 

Lewis odds -200 (BET NOW)
Oleinik odds +160 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds (-121/-110)
(BET NOW)
Time 11:30 p.m. ET
Venue UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Channel ESPN

Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Saturday’s UFC Fight main event pits two top-10 heavyweights against each other as No. 4-ranked Derrick Lewis faces No. 10-ranked Aleksei Oleinik. The card features 12 total fights beginning with seven prelim bouts at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN followed by the main card at 9 p.m. ET at the UFC Apex.

Both fighters are looking to extend their winning streaks to three in a row, but Lewis enters the bout as the -200 favorite to get the win. Odds makers don’t expect this fight to reach the scorecards as the odds for the bout to end before the final horn stand at -715 (87.7% implied probability).

Derrick Lewis Odds History

Date & Opponent Opening & Closing Odds Results
2/8/20, Illir Latifi -265, -280 W
11/2/19, Blagoy Ivanov -170, -130 W
3/9/19, Junior Dos Santos +105, +155 L
11/3/18, Daniel Cormier +575, +250 L
10/6/18, Alexander Volkov +145, +125 W

Lewis opened well above -250 at most books but his odds have come down a bit to the current number of -200. His two most recent fights that closed with him as -200 favorite or more were both wins — against Latifi and Shamil Abdurakhimov.

Aleksei Oleinik Odds History

Date & Opponent Opening & Closing Odds Results
5/9/20, Fabricio Werdum +170, +225 W
1/18/20, Maurice Greene -180, -154 W
7/20/19, Walt Harris -105, +120 L
4/20/19, Alistair Overeem +175, +180 L
9/15/18, Mark Hunt +165, -115 W

Oleinik scored a huge upset win in his most recent fight against Werdum by split-decision and bettors are optimistic that he can pull out back-to-back wins as a dog. His moneyline crashed down from +220 (implied 31.25%) to +160 (implied 38.5%) within the past week — the “Boa” is taking all of the money for Saturday’s main event.


Tale of the Tape

Main Event Lewis Oleinik
Record 23-7 (1 NC) 59-13-1
Avg. Fight Time 9:55 6:14
Height 6’3″ 6’2″
Weight (pounds) 260 240
Reach (inches) 79″ 80″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 2/7/85 6/20/77
Sig Strikes Per Min 2.53 3.72
SS Accuracy 49% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.14 3.30
SS Defense 44% 47%
Take Down Avg 0.48 2.41
TD Acc 24% 46%
TD Def 53% 35%
Submission Avg 0.0 2.2

Oleinik is the more active striker by the numbers, but Lewis absolutely has the more damaging one-punch power between the two. With their striking differential numbers nearly identical (+0.39 for Lewis compared to +0.42 for Oleinik), that ability to close the show at a moment’s notice could prove to be critical. You can be sure that Oleinik will look to use his advantage in take down average to keep Lewis off his feet and off his game.

Lewis vs. Oleinik Betting Pick

Aleksei Oleinik has been taking a ton of money for Saturday’s main event – moving down 60 cents in the past week – and while I still see actionable value on his moneyline, his path to victory in a five-round fight is pretty limited.

Oleinik has never been known for his gas tank, and although his last bout was a three-round decision with Fabricio Werdum, it was ultimately a grappling struggle between two prolific Jiu-Jitsu practitioners.

Derrick Lewis will try to keep the fight standing and outlast Oleinik – either by catching him with an uppercut when “The Boa Constrictor” recklessly comes forward searching for an early takedown or by fighting off submission attempts and using his size and strength advantage to get back to his feet, before picking apart a fading Oleinik in the later stages of the fight.

Oleinik has averaged 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC (46% accuracy) and Lewis’s takedown defense (53%) is almost non-existent – but his ability to get back to his feet is almost unmatched.

Against a superior grappler like Oleinik, Lewis may not fight the task so easy, however – and against the only other fighter who could take his back with ease – Daniel Cormier – Lewis tapped to a rear-naked choke.

The main event is scheduled for five rounds, but Oleinik averages 6:14 per fight inside the octagon, and Lewis (9:55) is also a noted finished (18 of 23 wins by knockout), though he has scored multiple second and third-round stoppages.

Instead of betting his now reduced moneyline, I split one unit in the prop market on Olenik by submission, alongside his odds to win in Round 1 or Round 2. If Lewis survives the first 10 minutes, I’ll look to play him live.

The Picks: Oleinik by Submission (+250, 0.5 units) | Oleineik to win in Round 1 (+500, 0.25 units) | Oleinik to win in Round 2 (+800, 0.25 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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