UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Projections: Betting Previews for Batgerel vs. Davis, Arlovski vs. Felipe (Saturday, October 16)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured (L-R): Andrei Arlovski and Carlos Felipe.
- Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night card is short on the fights but not on value.
- Our experts have found plus-money bets in three matchups, including the co-main event.
- Take a look at their analysis and picks on those bouts below.
For the second weekend in a row, the UFC will have a light card — this time we have just 10 bouts scheduled with women’s featherweights Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont set as the headliners of Saturday’s action.
So, where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew is focusing on three fights in particular and sees a few bets with value in those matchups. You can find their analysis and picks on those confrontations below.
You can also check out the moneyline and prop projections for every fight via Sean Zerillo’s betting model, which uses odds from DraftKings.
Sean Zerillo: Danaa Batgerel vs. Brandon Davis
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
One of the best ways to take advantage of inflation in the MMA betting markets is to fade fighters coming off consecutive knockout wins — particularly in the first round.
Danaa Batgerel is a powerful striker, but I’m not sure where he has an advantage in this matchup with Brandon Davis — who is back with the promotion after a 2-5 stint from 2018-2019.
Davis is a bit of a generalist, but he may have massive grappling upside in this fight, and he’ll be the bigger man in the octagon (3-inch height and 2-inch reach advantage).
The Mississippi native struggled against top competition — including Enrique Barzola and Zabit Magomedsharipov — due to poor takedown defense (56%). However, he has faced an extremely high level of competition.
Batgerel hasn’t shown much offensive grappling, but he can get stuck on his back when opponents choose to wrestle. Davis has shown the ability to change levels, landing three of seven takedown attempts in a split-decision loss to Giga Chikadze.
The striking in this matchup should be relatively close. However, since Davis is more durable than Batgerel’s previous opponents, his potential grappling path turns this fight into a coin flip, at minimum.
I projected Davis as a 49.2% underdog in this fight, and I would bet his moneyline down to +112, at a 2% edge compared to my projection.
Moreover, I projected Davis’s odds to win by decision at +239, and I would play that prop small down to +265.
The Pick: Brandon Davis ML (+140)
Erich Richter: Danny Roberts vs. Ramazan Emeev
Contributor at The Action Network
Highly touted prospect Ramazan Emeev returns to the octagon this weekend. He has been a massive favorite in nearly all of his fights — in his seven UFC bouts, his odds averaged out to -302 and he has never been an underdog.
What makes him so intimidating is his frantic pace in the grappling department. He is essentially a lock to hold his opponent against the cage and land takedowns. His control is seriously impressive.
Every one of Emeev’s fights have ended in a decision. He was unable to land the takedown and lost that fight pretty clearly. The road map to beating Emeev is pretty clear: Stop the takedowns and create space.
Only Anthony Rocco Martin has been able to accomplish that and he only won it via split decision. The pace from Emeev is going to sway most judges even if Roberts is able to stop a few takedowns.
I am not very bullish on Roberts being able to stop takedowns in this prelim bout. Roberts defends just 53% of takedowns and was controlled on the ground against David Zawada who profiles as a worse grappler.
I think plus money on Emeev is great value as he is mostly a point fighter at this point in his career. Anything plus money on his decision prop is a gift and I would bet it down to -115.
The Pick: Ramazan Emeev by Decision (+105)
Billy Ward: Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe
Contributor at The Action Network
The co-main event for the evening features Carlos Felipe taking on UFC legend Andrei Arlovski in a heavyweight contest.
Felipe has been on a roll since losing his UFC debut, with three straight decision victories. A volume striker, Felipe attempts a well-above average rate of 53.5 total strikes per round. This partially explains why he’s done so well on the judges scorecards — the more active fighter generally gets the nod in close fights.
He’s shown very little interest in grappling, attempting only one takedown in his UFC career. His lone loss (a majority decision) came largely thanks to three third-round takedowns from his opponent. The big knock on Felipe is his lack of power, particularly by heavyweight standards. Most of his pre-UFC bouts don’t have a winning method listed, but he’s yet to score a knockdown in the big show.
Like Felipe, Arlovski hasn’t wanted to grapple much either. I separated out the last five years (14 fights) of Arlovski’s career in my dataset. What a 21-year-old Arlovski did at UFC 28 (his debut) has little bearing on what the current version of “The Pitbull” brings to the table. In that time frame, Arlovski has attempted less than half a takedown per round.
Also like Felipe, the power hasn’t really been there for the once ferocious striker. He hasn’t won a fight by knockout since 2015, and has zero knockdowns in my sample of his last 14 contests.
They say power is the last thing to go, but it seems to have gone for Arlovski. (As an aside, I’m not sure if Arlovski’s power has really diminished, or if heavyweights are just bigger and stronger now. His last knockout victory was against Travis Browne, who weighed in at 236 pounds.)
All of this is a rough combination for Arlovski. He’s likely going to throw less strikes than Felipe, and without much hope of doing major damage. In what should be a strictly stand up contest, I like the more active fighter.
While Arlovski won his last bout in April, there’s also always a chance that a fighter in his 40s hits a wall. It tends to happen in a hurry in MMA, so it needs to be baked in to our expectations.
Felipe is currently even money at BetMGM and I would bet that down to -110. Also consider Felipe by decision at +240 — Arlovski is still fairly durable, and until Felipe shows us some power I’ll be betting against him knocking anyone out.
The Pick:Carlos Felipe ML (+100)
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