UFC Fight Night Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Landwehr vs. Erosa, Arlovski vs. Aspinall

UFC Fight Night Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Landwehr vs. Erosa, Arlovski vs. Aspinall article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Andrei Arlovski vs. Tom Aspinall.

  • Saturday night's UFC card is loaded with fights, but our analysts are eyeing two fights -- one main card bout and one undercard bout -- for their best bet.
  • Check out their analysis for those matchups and where they see betting value.

The UFC is back in action on Saturday night with UFC Fight Night, headlined by a heavyweight bout between Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis.

With 14 action-packed bouts on the slate, there is plenty of value to be found on the card. So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed two fights on Saturday’s card that present betting value in a couple of different ways.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.

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Sean Zerillo: Nate Landwehr vs. Julian Erosa

Betting Analyst, The Action Network

Erosa has the size advantage in this matchup (four inches taller, two inches of reach) but he isn’t particularly adept at managing distance, and Landwehr doesn’t let any opponent get comfortable from range.

“The Nate Train” only knows one direction: forward. And he’ll yell in your face while moving toward you. It’s quite a bit dangerous defensively, but that intensity certainly appeals to the judges.

Both fighters like to slug it out in the pocket, but Landwehr would get a major edge for durability in such a scenario. Erosa is 3-4 in three stints under the UFC banner, with three knockout losses.

Landwehr should also have the edge in terms of output (6.89 strikes landed per minute, +6% vs. Erosa in combined offensive-defensive efficiency), but I’m expecting to see one of these two men find a finish.

Of the pair, Landwehr carries more power, and winning inside the distance is a more significant part of his projected win condition (53%) than it is for Erosa (46%). He’s a dangerous man in a small cage and has also shown excellent cardio as a former track athlete.

I would bet Landwehr’s moneyline to -120 (implied 54.5%), at a 2.5%-edge compared to my projection (57%). He’s my favorite bet on the card.

The Pick: Nate Landwehr (bet to -120)

 

Erich Richter: Tom Aspinall vs. Andrei Arlovski

Contributor at The Action Network

Liverpool’s Tom Aspinall faces off against UFC legend Andrei Arlovski in heavyweight action. Teammate of Darren Till, Aspinall is a heavy favorite over Arlovski and for good reason.

Aspinall is 9-2 with one loss coming via DQ in a fight he was dominating and the other in a submission to a heel hook. Overall, Aspinall has answered the bell as a serious prospect in the UFC heavyweight division.

His striking is fierce – averaging an unreal 11.14 significant strikes landed per minute per UFCStats.

Not only does Aspinall land strikes in bunches, but he also ends fights quickly. All nine of Aspinall’s wins have come in the first round.

This is a very tough fight for Arlovski who has been KO’d 11 times in his career – seven times in round one.

I would bet Aspinall via first-round KO at +255 (28.7% implied) which is about right. Many books have it down to +230 (30.3% implied) – I’ll take the 2% edge and wouldn’t bet it lower than +240.

FanDuel Sportsbook has Aspinall by KO at +100 (50% implied). These odds are a bit better than most sportsbooks and my projections. I would bet this prop up to -115 (53.49% implied).

The Pick: Tom Aspinall KO (+100)

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