UFC Vegas 89 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas & More (Saturday, March 23)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC flyweights Amanda Ribas of Brazil and Rose Namajunas
Check out the UFC odds for UFC Vegas 89: Ribas vs. Namajunas with our expert best bets for Saturday, March 23.
UFC Vegas 89 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The preliminary card streams on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT), and the main card is then available on ESPN and ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.
A look at the UFC odds board shows several closely lined fights on Saturday's fight card. And our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
*Matchup odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC Vegas 89 with our FanDuel promo code.
UFC Odds & Best Bets
Tony Sartori: Miles Johns vs. Cody Gibson
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:40 p.m. ET
There is a bantamweight bout between two unranked contenders on Saturday's UFC prelims as Miles Johns (-136) takes on Cody Gibson (+116). This fight opened closer to a pick'em before steam drove up Johns' price across the market, and for good reason.
Johns is coming off two straight commanding unanimous decision victories over Vince Morales and Dan Argueta. Technically, the Argueta fight was overturned to a no-contest as Johns got popped for steroids, but that does not concern me as it was just trace amounts and I don't think the fight would have gone any differently.
He is now 8-0 in fights that go to the scorecards, which is important to note for this fight as the "Goes the Distance" prop is currently -165 to "Yes." It makes sense that Johns gets rewarded in the eyes of judges due to his well-rounded ability to mix things up both on the feet and on the mat.
With that said, I believe his wrestling will be the reason for success against Gibson, which typically bodes well for backing someone by a decision. Johns comes from a wrestling background and is a former state champion, and that should be his game plan in this scrap given that Gibson is three inches taller and five inches longer in reach.
You have to take away that size advantage if you're Johns, and wrestling is the way to do that. Gibson's 64% takedown defense in the UFC proves that it can be done, which is how Aljamain Sterling beat him back in 2014.
Now, if it goes to the mat, then we have to worry about a submission. However, that is really not a part of either of these guys' games and is north of 10/1 in the prop-betting market for each guy.
So, if you're going to back the favorite in this fight, I think decision is the way to go at +195.
The Pick:Miles Johns by Decision (+195 at BetRivers)
Sean Zerillo: Kurt Holobaugh vs. Trey Ogden
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
At age 37, the dropoff in athleticism and effectiveness could come drastically for Kurt Holobaugh (+124), but I'm less concerned about his age (divisional average 33) facing a 34-year-old opponent in Trey Ogden (-146).
Ogden is durable, but he doesn't carry much power (zero wins by KO/TKO) and prefers to leg-kick opponents from range before attempting to grapple.
Holobaugh will apply forward pressure, land vastly more striking volume, and damaging shots, and look to deny takedown attempts or scramble if Ogden puts Holobaugh (50% takedown defense) on his back. It may be difficult for Ogden to wrestle if he is moving backward too.
Holobaugh went 0-3 on his first UFC run but lost to a trio of ranked lightweights, including Thiago Moises, Shane Burgos and Raoni Barcelos.
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He returned to the UFC by defeating multiple UFC veterans on The Ultimate Fighter, including Austin Hubbard in the finale.
While Ogden has control grappling upside in this fight, Holobaugh doesn't accept the bottom position and will continually look to scramble back to his feet and outpace Ogden in striking volume; he should land vastly more head punches – which should sway the judges – over 15 minutes.
I projected Holobaugh as a slight favorite in this matchup (50.9%, or -104 implied), and I would bet his moneyline down to +105, at roughly 2% edge compared to my projected line.
Additionally, I show value on Holobaugh to win by decision (projected +337, listed +500), and I'd either poke that prop or include it on round-robin tickets.
The Pick:Kurt Holobaugh (+125 at ESPN BET)
Billy Ward: Payton Talbott vs. Cameron Saaiman
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
Payton Talbott (-154) meets Cameron Saaiman (+130) in an exciting matchup between two intriguing bantamweight prospects. Talbott is undefeated in his professional career at 7-0, including two of those under the UFC banner (one UFC and one Contender Series).
Saaiman suffered his first loss last year after three straight UFC victories. However, that came against another tough prospect in Christian Rodriguez – and Rodriguez missed weight badly and is now fighting at featherweight.
Point is, both fighters are effectively undefeated at 135 pounds. However, Saaiman has been fairly protected throughout his career. The three opponents he beat have a combined 2-5 UFC record – with both wins split-decision victories from Mana Martinez. Saaiman needed a majority decision to get past Martinez.
Which is a somewhat stark contrast for Talbott. While he’s newer to the UFC, all of his past opponents had winning pro records, aside from his debut against a fellow 0-0 fighter.
From a technical side, I was extremely impressed by Talbott’s striking in his UFC debut. He faced a southpaw (Saaiaman is listed as a switch-stance fighter but primarily fights lefty) and constantly won the footwork battle, while initiating combos with his power side kicks and punches.
Saaiman is the more active offensive grappler, but Talbott has defended 24 of the 27 takedowns he’s faced across two UFC-affiliated bouts. He’s also shown off some slick grappling of his own – including a highlight-reel front flip from a front headlock position.
I also trust Talbott’s cardio a bit more here – he pulled that front flip in the third round after all – than Saaiman’s. Neither is likely to badly gas out, but Saaiman’s more frenetic striking style uses more energy than Talbott’s disciplined stalking.
The best line is -144 on FanDuel, but I’d play Talbott at any of the widely available lines.
The Pick:Payton Talbott (-144 at FanDuel)
Dann Stupp: Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 a.m. ET
OK, first things first: My initial best bet was going to involve the intriguing main-card bout between featherweights Billy Quarantillo (-104) and Youssef Zalal (-112).
I was ready to heavily back Quarantillo, especially as his odds inexplicably improved from -175 to -105 through fight week.
But, I know I'm not the world's best handicapper, and ultimately, my colleague Liam Heslin laid out a compelling case for Zalal. I soon realized my BillyQ bet likely came more from my heart than my head, and I wasn't too proud to pivot to my next-best idea.
Ultimately, that led me to UFC Vegas 89's main event between Amanda Ribas (+184) vs. Rose Namajunas (-220). This could be a crackerjack of a main event when former 115-pound champ Namajunas looks to gatekeep Ribas from top-contender status at 125 pounds.
Ultimately, despite Ribas' lack of five-round experience, I think this fight has a great chance of extending into the later rounds.
Ribas is a scrappy fighter who will fight for your money. I love to back fighters like that. And though I've rightfully doubted Namajunas' mental status in past fights, she seems dialed in and in great shape for this bout. I think those facts simply improve her durability, as well as our likelihood that this main event stretches out.
So, how do I bet it? In our Ribas vs. Namajunas breakdown, Sean Zerillo recommended a small play on the Fight Goes to Decision at +135 and laid out a strong case. However, I'm going to go an alternate route and pick off a good line at FanDuel, where I can get "Fight Starts Round 4" at -146 odds.
I this fight is fairly close, so I side with Ribas as the sharper side to bet. But I think the real value lies in the total and round props, and I think FanDuel is offering the best deal.
Play the Starts Round 4 prop (essentially, "Over 3.0 Rounds") at -146 odds, and take it down to -160. (Otherwise, I'd instead take the Over 2.5 rounds, which Betway has available at -188 odds.)
The Pick:Ribas vs. Namajunas Starts Round 4 (-146 at FanDuel)
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