UFC on ABC 3 PrizePicks Props: Don’t Get Fooled by This Punahele Soriano Prop
Credit: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Punahele Soriano
The UFC kicks off early on Saturday with a deep 12-fight card. That gives us plenty of opportunity to get some action in – even if you don’t live in a legal betting state. PrizePicks has you covered there, or if you just want to bet on player performances.
Below is my favorite parlay for Saturday’s card, which starts at 11 a.m. ET, with some additional options to add on for longer odds.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC on ABC 3 PrizePicks Parlay
Punahele Soriano Significant Strikes – Under 46.5
Soriano is taking on Dalcha Lumbiangula in the fight with the longest betting odds to end inside the distance at -200. That in and of itself should have our antennae up for “under” bets. A fight that ends early wouldn’t produce a high volume of stats.
Soriano would hit this prop in roughly 11.5 minutes based on his usual striking rate. However, Lungimabula absorbs a slightly below-average volume of strikes himself. The Under 2.5 rounds prop is around -152 presently, so he’d need to pick up the volume considerably based on that line.
Additionally, there are stylistic reasons to be on the under here. Lungimabula has a judo background, and could – or at least should – try to take this one to the mat. Soriano has relatively poor takedown defense, and it’s probably Lungimabula’s most direct path toward an upset here.
Lungimabula also has a few inches in reach, so Soriano won’t be able to rack up strikes from the outside. I expect him to be able to land, but more single shots than combos.
We could also pivot to the over on Soriano’s fantasy score. Based on the PrizePicks scoring system, a win by Soriano at almost any point would assure the over there, barring an extremely slow fight between the two.
Brian Ortega Takedowns – Over 2.0
“T-City” Ortega is the grappler in his striker vs. grappler main event pairing against Yair Rodriguez. Ortega has long been known for his submission skills, with questionable wrestling early in his career.
He’s stepped up the wrestling as of late, though, and he’s landed at least two takedowns in each of his past three bouts. That includes two against champ Alexander Volkanovski, who is a decidedly better wrestler than Rodriguez.
The striking differential is much closer in this bout than it was against Volkanovski, though, so this prop probably comes down to willingness more than ability. While I believe Rodriguez to be the better striker, that doesn’t mean it’s: A) true or B) it’s a belief shared by Ortega.
Still, it’s the clearest path to victory for Ortega, and I expect him to at least mix in takedowns even if he’s having success in the striking range.
Finishing with exactly two takedowns is probably the likeliest outcome here, but the over is far more probable than the under.
UFC on ABC 3 Quick Picks
- Bill Algeo Under 11.5 Minutes Fight Time: This is mostly a math play; adding all of the respective Round 1 and Round 2 props between Algeo and his opponent Herbert Burns gives a 63% implied probability in the Action Network Betting Calculator. That 63% includes the vig, which is typically larger on props like this. We even get an extra 90 seconds on PrizePicks, further bettering our chances.
- Jack Shore Under 60.5 Significant Strikes: Shore and opponent Ricky Simon combine for more than 10 takedowns landed per 15 minutes in their fights. I’m expecting far too much wrestling in this one for Shore to land 61 times. Even if he’s able to get Simon down, there’s likely to be a ton of scrambling and unsteady positions. His 4.18 significant strikes landed per minute would barely get him there in a 15-minute fight, but not if they spend most of it wrestling.