UFC Fight Night Updated Betting Odds: Picks for Saturday’s Undercard and Main Card

Credit:

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Walt Harris.

  • Looking for betting picks and predictions for Saturday's UFC Fight Night? You're in the right place.
  • Walt Harris is a -148 favorite over Alistair Overeen, and the total rounds is set at 1.5.
  • Below you'll find picks for the full UFC slate, including how our experts are betting the Harris vs. Overeen over/under.

Three fight cards in one week.

For fans of the UFC, the past seven days have been an oasis in the desert as most sports are still in the process of returning.

Saturday’s card features 11 more action-packed bouts headlined by noted finishers Alistair Overeem (+120) and Walt Harris (-148). The last time we saw Overeem in the Octagon, his lip was split in half during a TKO loss. Harris, on the other hand, made quick work of his past two opponents with stoppage wins inside the first minute of Round 1.

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with a six-fight preliminary card. The main card will begin at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and features five bouts.

Check out the full betting odds, with analysis from Sean Zerillo, and picks for each fight below:

UFC Fight Night Value Bets

Preliminary Card

  • Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN+

Heavyweight fight: Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes

  • Nascimento: -114
  • Mayes: -114
  • Over/Under: 1.5 Rounds (-148/+110)

Crowdsourced Projection: Nascimento (67%)

This Heavyweight fight is listed as a pick’em, but I prefer the Brazilian Nascimento, an undefeated grappler, against the American Mayes – a standup specialist with an undeveloped ground game.

This is one of just two preliminary fights projected to finish inside the distance and at odds of -305 (implied 75%), it seems likely with such a clash of styles.

Nascimento is listed at +175 to win by submission, while Mayes is the same price to win by KO/TKO.

But I make the Brazilian’s fair odds in this fight closer to -200 than a pick’em, and I would bet his moneyline to -135.

Nascimento vs. Mayes Bets

  • Rodrigo Nascimento -110 (1 unit)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Women’s Flyweight fight: Cortney Casey vs. Mara Romero Borella

  • Casey: -162
  • Romero Borella: +130
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Rounds (-455/+300)

Crowdsourced Projection: Casey (70%)

Cortney Casey is a pretty solid favorite in this fight and the crowd projection likes her even more than that – but I’m more skeptical and will pass on this Flyweight bout.

Casey is the more active striker and well-rounded fighter, but Borella has a big edge in strike defense (71% to 53%) and far superior grappling metrics.

I’m not going to bet on a favorite who is moving up to a new weight class after going 2-5 on the scorecards in her past seven bouts – including three split decisions.

This fight is -360 to go the distance, so Casey by decision (-106) or Borella by decision (+210) are the props to target.

Casey vs. Borella Bets

  • Pass

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Featherweight fight: Darren Elkins vs. Nate Landwehr

  • Elkins: -121
  • Landwehr: -104
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Rounds (-200/+145)

Crowdsourced Projection: Landwehr (70%)

Elkins is coming in off of three consecutive losses and is known for taking punishment, while Landwehr is a high-volume striker who wants to steamroll people – his nickname is “The Train,” after all.

But he’s also a bit reckless and vulnerable to takedowns, so there is a path where Elkins ultimately controls the pace of the fight by turning it into a grappling contest – averaging 2.52 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Landwehr by KO/TKO (+300) feels like a sucker bet – Elkins is notoriously tough.

Betting on this fight to go the distance (-160) feels like the best play – but that’s also not my type of wager.

I’ll stick with a small (0.5 unit) play on Landwehr’s moneyline, at -110 or better.

Elkins vs. Landwehr Bets

  • Nate Landwehr +105 (0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Featherweight fight: Giga Chikadze vs. Irwin Rivera

  • Chikadze: -400
  • Rivera: -+290
  • Over/Under: N/A

Crowdsourced Projection: Chikadze (85%)

Irwin Rivera is a late replacement for Mike Davis, who had issues cutting weight, turning Chikadze from a substantial underdog into the biggest favorite on the card.

The crowd generally agrees with the assessment, and I have no interest in betting on this bout.

Chikadze vs. Rivera Bets

  • Pass

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Middleweight fight: Anthony Hernandez vs. Kevin Holland

  • Hernandez: -112
  • Holland: -112
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Rounds (-200/+145)

Crowdsourced Projection: Holland (75%)

Hernandez is the hot prospect in this pick’em middleweight bout, entering UFC from the Contender Series after avenging his first career loss, by anaconda choke, with an anaconda of his own.

But while he showed toughness in that victory, he was also extremely reckless, and Holland has significant advantages in experience, height (three inches), and reach (six inches) which should allow his striking (+1.58 career differential) to really shine.

Holland also has six wins by submission, and I feel like his overall skill level is being overlooked in this fight, in favor of a prospect with more potential.

Holland by submission (+600) or KO/TKO (+700) has some appeal, but I’ll back him on the moneyline instead, at -130 or better.

Hernandez vs. Holland Bets

  • Kevin Holland -112 (1 unit)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Welterweight fight: Matt Brown vs. Miguel Baeza

  • Brown: +130
  • Baeza: -162
  • Over/Under: 1.5 Rounds (-139/+104)

Crowdsourced Projection: Baeza (51%)

The crowd is split in this fight between undefeated prospect Miguel Baeza and “The Immortal” Matt Brown, who is coming off of consecutive knockout victories against Ben Saunders and Diego Sanchez after losing five of six fights from 2014-2016.

This is Baeza’s first shot against a high-level UFC talent, and I anticipate that he might be in over his head without the sort of dominant grappling skill to dictate the entire pace of the fight.

Brown is the superior technical striker and his experience and versatility should prove to be a massive advantage against a fighter 11 years his junior.

This fight is -230 to finish inside of the distance, and Brown by KO/TKO at +333 might my favorite prop bet of the night – finishing every one of his UFC wins since 2012.

I would need +125 or better to take a small crack on Brown’s moneyline, but anything over +325 on the knockout props seems fair for small stakes.

Brown vs. Baeza Bets

  • Matt Brown by KO/TKO (+430, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Main Card

  • Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN+

Featherweight fight: Song Yadong vs. Marlon Vera

  • Yadong: -190
  • Vera: +155
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Rounds (-139/+105)

Crowdsourced Projection: Yadong (51%)

This fight should be exciting and could go a variety of directions between Chinese striker Song Yadong and Eduardorian grappler Marlon Vera, who have each struggled against the opposing archetype in the past.

The value looks to be on the underdog, who has recorded five consecutive wins, including two submissions and three by TKO, but Yadong has the better strike differential (+0.8 vs. -0.39) and power.

If he can avoid getting stopped, Vera should eventually be able to ensnare his opponent with his lethal jiu-jitsu, but this fight is 50/50 to finish inside of the distance, and I’m expecting some sort of finish.

Therefore, Vera by submission (+450) is my expectation, but I’ll stick with a small moneyline wager on anything over +150, in the potential fight of the night.

Yadong vs. Vera Bets

  • Marlon Vera +165 (0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Middleweight fight: Eryk Anders vs. Krzysztof Jotko

  • Anders: +130
  • Jotko: -162
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Rounds (-200/+150)

Crowdsourced Projection: Jotko (57%)

If the first fight on Saturday’s main card is the most exciting fight of the night, you may want to skip the potential letdown from this Middleweight bout.

The line looks about right relative to the crowd projection, so there is no true value worth betting into, and I would also anticipate that the bout finishes on the scorecards, but the fight is -162 to go the distance; as both fighters have the right tools to counter one another’s strengths.

Both men have seen ups and downs in their careers, and I’m not inspired to bet on either one.

Anders vs. Jotko  Bets

  • Pass

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Featherweight fight: Dan Ige vs. Edson Barboza

  • Ige: +110
  • Barboza: -137
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Rounds (-190/+140)

Crowdsourced Projection: Barboza (70%)

Edson Barboza looks like the value side of this equation – as Ige is just a small underdog against the best opponent that he has ever faced.

But the Brazilian made the cut to Featherweight after consecutive losses at the top of the Lightweight division, and this is a tough fight for him too against Ige, who has won five consecutive fights in a variety of ways.

Barboza’s skills should translate well at a lower weight class – with his excellent technical boxing and devastating leg kicks – but its Ige who owns the superior strike differential (+1.2 vs. -0.15) and accuracy (+6% offense, +2% defense).

Ige is also the superior wrestler, averaging 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, but Barboza’s takedown defense (80%) is notably excellent.

I would expect to see the Hawaiian, who gives up four inches of height and reach to Barboza, to look to get inside of range and apply pressure with his powerful combinations and wrestling – before potentially tiring out in the later rounds.

How Barboza’s stamina survives after the cut to 145 is my biggest concern in betting him as a small favorite – but I would also need a bigger price to back Ige as an underdog – and I could also see either man finishing this fight early.

If you made me pick one side, I’ll take Barboza by decision (+225) in a fight that is -148 (implied 60%) to go the distance. But I’m truly unwilling to bet anything here.

Barboza vs. Ige Bets

  • Pass

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Wommen’s Strawweight fight: Claudia Gadelha vs. Angela Hill

  • Gadelha: -225
  • Hill: +180
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Rounds (-345/+240)

Crowdsourced Projection: Gadelha (74%)

The co-main event is an exciting Strawweight bout between two high-volume strikers, who have landed or absorbed a combined average of 9.2 significant strikes per minute during their time in the UFC.

Hill owns the better strike differential (+0.61 vs. -1.21) but Gadelha is significantly more active in the grappling game – averaging 3.34 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 47% success rate – so Hill’s takedown defense (72%) will be vital to keep the fight standing.

And her only path to victory may be by decision (+250) in a fight that is -335 to go the distance – the Brazilian “Claudinha” has never been stopped in her career.

If she can dominate with her grappling, this looks like a clear win for Gadehlha by decision (-106) or submission (+500) but a lot of experts, and Gadelha fans, are picking Hill as an underdog – and I cannot recommend using Gadelha in parlays.

If the fight stays standing, Hill should have a significant advantage in the later rounds; Gadelha’s biggest question mark is always her stamina.

Gadelha vs. Hill Bets

  • Pass

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Heavyweight fight: Alistair Overeem vs. Walt Harris

  • Overeem: +120
  • Harris: -148
  • Over/Under: 1.5 Rounds (-159/+120)

Crowdsourced Projection: Harris (56%)

If you want more in-depth analysis on Saturday’s main event, check out my full fight preview. 

In short, the line looks pretty accurate on both sides but I would consider betting Overeem at +160 (implied 38.5%) or better, or Harris at -102 (implied 50.5%) or better. Either bet represents a 5.5% edge. Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.

The contrarian in me says that Overeem finds a way to control the tempo of the pace early before winning by knockout (+225) or recording his first decision (+650) in a long time, but I’m expecting him to avoid early danger and betting Over 1.5 rounds for a half-unit at -150 or better.

Overeem vs. Harris Bets

  • Over 1.5 Rounds (-145, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]


Zerillo’s UFC Fight Night Bets

  • Rodrigo Nascimento -110 (1 unit)
  • Nate Landwehr +105, (0.5 units)
  • Kevin Holland -112 (1 unit)
  • Matt Brown by KO/TKO (+430, 0.5 units)
  • Marlon Vera +165 (0.5 units)
  • Overeem / Harris, Over 1.5 Rounds (-145, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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