UFC Vegas 84 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Best Bets for Ankalaev vs Walker, Miller vs Benitez, Simon vs Bautista (Saturday, January 13)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC featherweight Ricky Simon
Check out our UFC Vegas 84 best bets and predictions for the Saturday event on ESPN+, which features Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker in the main event.
UFC Vegas 84, the first UFC event of 2024, takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
The entire event streams on ESPN+ beginning with the six-bout preliminary card at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) and the five-fight main card, including the Ankalaev vs. Walker rematch and headliner, at 7 p.m. ET.
However, our experts aren't focused on just that main event for this week's expert UFC selections.
So where should be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s event, including three picks from the main card, that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
*Fights odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel
Dan Tom: Joshua Van vs. Felipe Bunes
MMA Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:05 p.m. ET
Despite my usual luck when it comes to betting fights early in the night, the prelim curtain-jerker between Joshua Van (-245) and Felipe Bunes (+200) caught my eye.
Bunes is a former LFA champion with a deceptive amount of experience, but the 34-year-old flyweight is coming off a year-long layoff due to medical issues.
Although Van is taking this fight on roughly three weeks' notice, the 22-year-old recently fought in November and offers a completely different style match for Bunes (who was initially slated to face grappling specialist Denys Bondar).
I believe that Van is still the rightful favorite to win, but I understand if his chalky price tag keeps you away from his money line.
That said, I suspect that each fighter's style – coupled with the smaller fighting area of the UFC Apex – will encourage violent, extended exchanges that could lead to a potential finish.
Add in the fact that Bunes has shown a propensity to get stung by slower fighters in recent affairs, and I'm willing to bet that Van gets back to his finishing ways this Saturday via superior speed and pocket boxing.
If you're also looking to get action on one of my favorite flyweight prospects at a more reasonable price, then I suggest taking a gander at Van to win "inside the distance" at plus money.
The Pick: Joshua Van to Win by Finish (+140 at BetWay)
(Hey Tarheels: North Carolina sports betting is coming online this year with legal sportsbooks! Be ready for all of the UFC action.)
Tony Sartori: Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
After a quick offseason, the UFC returns on Saturday, which means we will be betting on it. For the return, I am targeting a method-of-victory prop for the No. 13-ranked bantamweight contender, Ricky Simon.
Simon takes on unraked Mario Bautista on the main card in a scrap that will certainly feature every aspect of MMA. Both guys can strike, defend, grapple and wrestle.
With that said, Simon (-184) simply does most of those things better. Bautista (+154) has won five straight fights and seven of his past eight, but he is still listed as a +152 underdog because he really hasn't beat anyone of significance over that stretch. He defeated Da'Mon Blackshear, Guido Cannetti, Benito Lopez, Brian Kelleher and Jay Perrin during this five-fight winning streak.
The problem is that only one of those five guys possesses a winning record in the UFC, which is 3-2 Lopez. With a three-inch height advantage and a clearer path to victory in the striking department, I expect Bautista to attempt to keep this fight standing.
However, that is easier said than done against Simon, who boasts an impressive 5.84 takedown average per 15 minutes in the UFC. If Simon shoots and brings Bautista to the mat, which shouldn't be too difficult given Bautista's 50% takedown defense, then I certainly don't think it is out of the question that he racks up control time and coasts to a decision victory.
That is exactly how he beat Kelleher in 2021, landing six of his nine takedown attempts while accumulating 8:14 of control time en route to a 30-27 (x3) unanimous decision victory. In fact, five of Simon's nine victories have come via decision, and all of those five wins were earned with this "takedown-to-control" (I'm making this term up) method.
While Bautista is taller (benefits striking), Simon is denser (benefits wrestling/control), and I suspect that aforementioned game plan will be the easiest path to victory for the -188 favorite (as of this writing). Considering this, I think it's worth taking a shot on Simon to win by decision at +145 via FanDuel, a price that is five-to-20 cents longer than the rest of the market.
The Pick: Ricky Simon by Decision (+145 at FanDuel)
Dann Stupp: Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
For my first bet of 2024, I needed to turn back the clock. I needed to find that magic from 2022, when I had my best year of MMA betting, and turn the page on a ho-hum 2023 campaign.
And I can think of no one better to appease the MMA gods and punch a sacrifice straight up to the energy-drink-covered peaks of Mt. Xyience than fellow 40-something Jim Miller.
Sure, he may not be in his tip-top form, but Miller (-148) is carrying a 4-1 run into Saturday's main-card meeting with fellow lightweight Gabriel Benitez (+126).
Miller may not be defeating world-beaters during this late-career resurgence (though a victory over a past-his-prime Cowboy Cerrone is another accolade on his lengthy resume). But he's winning, and he's winning with stoppages – with three knockouts and a submission in his those four recent victories.
Miller's defiance of Father Time will eventually result in an L. I'm just not sure Benitez, a 35-year-old who's coming off a 16-month layoff due to injuries, is the man to do it.
I hate that I wasn't able to get Miller at the plus-money opening price. I snagged a very good -125 consolation price earlier in the week. But honestly? The gettin's still good, as they say, for you stragglers.
I've got Miller winning this fight 70% of the time (-233), which leaves a ton of value with the current -138 price at Betway. As of this writing, you can also find Miller in the -148 to -155 range at other sportsbooks.
My colleague Dan Tom made me feel good about Miller's potential success in the standup department of this fight. And considering Benitez's durability concerns (three stoppages in his four most recent losses), poor takedown defense and overall lack of signature wins, I'm just not sold on him being the one to halt Miller's recent run and his goal of competing in April at UFC 300.
Miller may play around on the feet and pay a price. However, with a loss or even a tough victory likely to cost him his coveted UFC 300 spot, I think J.F.M. plays this one fairly safe, looks for takedowns, and chokes or pounds out Benitez in the second or third round.
I'd comfortably take Miller down to -180.
The Pick: Jim Miller (-138 at Betway)
(Bet on UFC Vegas 84 with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.)
Billy Ward: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker
Predictive Analyst and Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
This pick might be more appropriate for our MMA Prop Squad feature, but I just can’t pass on the value this weekend with Johnny Walker.
Walker (+410) taking on Magomed Ankalaev (-550) in the first UFC main event of 2024. It’s a rematch from their UFC 294 fight, in which an illegal knee from Ankalaev and some overzealous doctoring caused an early stoppage to the bout. Which should’ve been ruled a DQ for Walker, but I digress.
Anyway, coming into that fight, Walker was a round a +300 favorite. Now the line has moved more than a dollar against him, but why? Walker was doing fine in the fight with Ankalaev, with the striking exchanges fairly even until Ankalaev landed a takedown.
Walker’s near-escape from that takedown was the impetus for the illegal knee, and he acquitted himself fairly well on the ground against the Dagestani fighter. Nothing I saw in those three minutes led me to believe that the former line was off – and yet it’s moved anyway.
The only noticeable difference here is that the fight is five rounds, instead of three. However, under 2.5 rounds is -145, so we’re somewhat unlikely to ever see those extra rounds anyway.
I’m also not convinced a longer fight favors Ankalaev. While he has more five-round experience, he’s struggled with leg kicks in the past – including against Walker, who landed nine in about two minutes of standup fighting. Those tend to pay dividends in the later stages of the fight, and I doubt Ankalaev would look fresh after eating a few dozen.
I was actually on Walker at the previous moneyline, but I love him at +410. Just because it’s a “best bet” doesn’t mean I’m going crazy though. This is a half-unit play for me at most, and I’d take it down to +350.
The Pick: Johnny Walker (+410 at BetRivers)
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