UFC Vegas 84 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira: Will Cardio Even Matter? (Saturday, January 13)

Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira Odds

Here's everything you need to know about Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira on Saturday, Jan. 13 – our expert MMA prediction and pick.

The first UFC main card of the year includes this UFC Vegas 84 showdown between veteran Phil Hawes and up-and-coming middleweight Brunno Ferreira.

The 35-year-old Hawes started his UFC career 3-0, but he's dropped three of the last four, all by first-round knockout.

Hawes is likely fighting for his job here against the 10-1 (1-1 UFC) Ferreira, an exciting prospect who's never seen the third round in his professional career. For Ferreira, it's the first time he'll enter the UFC octagon with a full training camp after having made his debut as a late-notice replacement and then fighting a switched opponent in his sophomore effort.

Expect fireworks in this one – with an over/under set at 1.5 rounds and heavily juiced to the under.

Tale of the Tape

It's been quite the ride for Phil Hawes over the three short years he's been in the UFC.

A former NCAA Division 1 wrestler and JUCO national champ, Hawes punched his ticket to the UFC with a first-round knockout victory on the Contender Series.

He followed that up with another big finish, and he needed just 18 seconds to starch fellow grappler Jacob Malkoun in his first official UFC bout.

After that, Hawes' grappling base became more apparent. He won two lackluster decisions, picking up six takedowns and 17 minutes of control time across the two fights. Then he moved to Thailand and started training muay Thai.

On its face, that's a good move: Strong wrestling base, add a few years of dedicated striking training, what could go wrong?

Like plenty of hyper-athletic wrestlers before him, Hawes made the classic mistake: He fell in love with his hands.

Over his last four fights, he's landed just two takedowns – and only one win. In his defense, Hawes has looked great on the feet. He mixes powerful kicks from a southpaw stance with long punches and technically sound defense, holding his hands high and checking kicks.

Then it falls apart when he gets hit.

All four of Hawes' promotional losses have been via knockout, with the last three in the first round. These haven't been questionable standing TKOs either; when he gets clipped, he tends to go down.

Which makes this a brutal matchup with Ferreira, a rising prospect with massive punching power. He's probably a less technically sound striker than Hawes, which was on full display in his knockout loss to Nursulton Ruziboev. Ferreira tends to compensate for his somewhat limited reach by overextending with kicks, and Ruziboev caught one and flat-lined the Brazilian.

Outside of that, he's been sharp, though, bouncing in and out of range and switching stances seamlessly. "The Hulk" brings a well-above-average striking rate for the division, with a willingness to brawl from the pocket.

We haven't seen him grapple much, but he was a national-level judo competitor before transitioning to MMA and holds a BJJ black belt.

That should serve him well even if Hawes decides to go back to his strengths.

While Ferreira may not win the grappling exchanges, his extensive submission grappling background should at least keep him safe on the ground.

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Hawes vs. Ferreira Pick

While I've painted a fairly bleak picture for Hawes above, there's one key factor he should have an edge in. That's cardio, as Ferreira has never been in a fight longer than six minutes and eight seconds.

While that doesn't prove his cardio is bad, it's at best unproven. Furthermore, his aggressive nature on the feet isn't typically great for longer bouts. Not only does he throw hard, he throws often, which creates a massive energy demand.

At the same time, all of Hawes' recent losses have been in the first round. He's shown almost no ability to absorb damage and outlast opponents who overextend, and there's no way that's improved at 35 years old following three bad knockouts in the last 26 months.

The price difference between Ferreira by knockout (best at +125 on FanDuel) and by submission (best at -120 on DraftKings) isn't enough for me to ignore the risk of a "club-and-sub" stoppage, or for an accomplished grappler to catch the neck of a wrestler desperately hunting takedowns.

Therefore, I'll pay the extra juice for Ferreira by finish, but I would take the knockout line if the discrepancy widens.

Should Hawes make it out of the first round, this is a prime live-betting opportunity. Even if the price gets a bit worse than his prefight moneyline of +110, it's at worst a hedge. Of course, we'd love to get juicy plus money following a big first round from the favorite.

The Pick: Brunno Ferreira by Finish (-120 at FanDuel) | Phil Hawes Live