2023 NBA Draft Odds Tracker: Brandon Miller Is the Betting Favorite for No. 2 Pick (Again)
Via Jeff Haynes/Getty Images. Pictured: Scoot Henderson, Noah Clowney and Brandon Miller attend the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place on May 16, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.
7:30 p.m. ET Update: Brandon Miller has moved into strong position with roughly 30 minutes to go before the start of the NBA Draft. Here's a snapshot of the odds movement for the No. 2 pick throughout the day.
No. 2 Pick Odds Movement — Thursday
Brandon Miller:10 a.m. ET (-600) — 12:30 p.m. ET (+240) — 4 p.m. ET (+135) — 5 p.m. ET (+100) — 6 p.m. ET (-190) — 7:30 p.m. ET (-1000)
Scoot Henderson:10 a.m. ET (+350) — 12:30 p.m. ET (-380) — 4 p.m. ET (-210) — 5 p.m. ET (-160) — 6 p.m. ET (+115) — 7:30 p.m. ET (+550)
7:15 p.m. ET: Update: Brandon Miller has solidified himself as the betting favorite to be drafted second after overtaking Scoot Henderson about 90 minutes ago. Miller's odds have shortened from -150 at 7:00 p.m. ET to -310 at FanDuel at 7:15 p.m. ET. Henderson slid from +105 at 7:00 p.m. ET to +220 at 7:15 p.m. ET.
7:00 p.m. ET: Update: Brandon Miller remains the betting favorite to be drafted second after overtaking Scoot Henderson about an hour ago. Miller's odds have lengthened from -190 at 6:00 p.m. ET to -150 at 7:00 p.m. ET. Henderson has crept closer from +115 at 6 p.m. ET to +105 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
6:00 p.m. ET: Update: Brandon Miller has once again taken over as the betting favorite to become the second overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft at -190 (65.52% implied probability) on FanDuel. While Miller moved from +100 to -190, Scoot Henderson fell from -160 to +115 (46.51% implied probability) to be drafted second by the Charlotte Hornets, and he became the betting favorite to be drafted third, by the Portland Trail Blazers, at -150.
5:00 p.m. ET: Update: Scoot Henderson's odds to go No. 2 overall have fallen back to earth significantly since he became the favorite earlier today. He is now -160 to be taken by the Charlotte Hornets while Miller is moving back in the other direction at +100. Miller is -110 to land at No. 3 with Henderson listed at -105. Thompson's odds to be the No. 3 pick have dropped back to +500 after gaining steam throughout the day.
4:00 p.m. ET: Update: Amen Thompson continues to rise up the board now sits at +380 (20.83% implied probability). Brandon Miller is now listed -170, but he is still the favorite at No. 3.
2:30 p.m. ET: Update: Amen Thompson has risen up the board as he was +2100 (4.55% implied probability) to be taken third on Thursday morning but now sits at +170 (37.04% implied probability). Brandon Miller has slipped from -280 to -160, but he is still the favorite at No. 3.
The 2023 NBA Draft is almost here, and the odds for the No. 2 and No. 3 picks, among many others, are on the move.
Many consider Scoot Henderson to be the second-best player in this draft — and also the player with the second-greatest star potential behind Victor Wembanyama. But when the Charlotte Hornets won the second pick in the NBA Draft Lottery, the chances of Henderson being picked second fell because the Hornets have another point guard, LaMelo Ball, as their best player.
The Hornets have noted that they may draft for fit instead of best player available here, and that’s why Alabama forward Brandon Miller had ascended to the favorite to be drafted second.
The Portland Trail Blazers own the rights to the third pick in the draft, and this is a major pivot point in the draft. The Trail Blazers have a variety of moves possible here, including trading the pick for someone like Zion Williamson or Paul George or taking the pick for themselves and trading star guard Damian Lillard as part of a rebuilding effort.
While odds for sporting events are tied down to a power rating from sportsbooks, there is no power rating for players entering the drafts because of the subjective nature of the draft and player evaluation for different teams. Consequently, there are more rapid shifts in odds based on what industry insiders and media members are conveying to the public.
Additionally, liability always plays a role when a wiseguy takes a stance on a player with extremely long odds, causing books to move those long numbers in order to minimize risk. That’s why a 20-1 longshot might move to 3-1 in the span of hours, which would never happen for an alternate spread line in an NBA game, for example.
As a result, the odds for Miller and Henderson to be drafted second and third are on the move as rumors continue to swirl on draft day.
Here are the latest odds for the second and third overall picks in the 2023 NBA Draft, via FanDuel as of 7:15 p.m. ET.
NBA Draft Odds Tracker
|Player||No. 2 Pick Odds||No. 3 Pick Odds|
On Thursday morning, Miller was -600 at FanDuel to be taken No. 2 overall, but those odds quickly shifted around 11:30 a.m. ET. By noon, Henderson had moved to -900 at FanDuel before settling at -380 with Miller at +240.
Shams Charania tweeted roughly 30 minutes later that the Hornets were leaning toward the point guard internally, though a decision is still uncertain.
Sources: Scoot Henderson is gaining serious momentum at No. 2 with the Charlotte Hornets in tonight’s NBA draft. Hornets have been torn over the last week between Henderson and Brandon Miller. Team has final meetings today to settle on decision.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) June 22, 2023
The odds for the No. 3 pick saw similar movement with Henderson listed at -550 to be taken third at the start of the day before he and Miller swapped spots on the board.
Henderson remained the favorite to be selected with the second pick in the NBA Draft past 5 p.m. ET, when he was -160 to join the Hornets. Miller was +100 at 5 p.m. ET, but he became the betting favorite around 5:40 p.m. ET. As of 6 p.m. ET, Miller sits at -190 to be drafted second while Henderson is the new underdog at +115.
The rest of the players on the odds board at FanDuel to be drafted second (Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Victor Wembanyama and Jarace Walker) have not seen any movement in their odds today.
As of 7 p.m. ET, Miller has solidified himself as the betting favorite to be drafted second at -310 while Henderson has slid to +220 to be drafted by the Hornets.