The Philadelphia 76ers (45-37) and Boston Celtics (56-26) will meet in Game 1 of their NBA playoff series this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Celtics are 12.5-point favorites over the 76ers on the spread (Celtics -12.5), with the over/under set at 213.5 total points. Boston is a -800 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Philadelphia is +550 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my 76ers vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, April 19.
76ers vs Celtics Prediction
- 76ers vs Celtics pick: Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 Rebounds (+105)
My Celtics vs. 76ers Game 1 best bet is on Jayson Tatum to record over 9.5 rebounds. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
76ers vs Celtics Odds
| 76ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 213.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 213.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
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76ers vs Celtics NBA Playoffs Game 1 Preview
Boston Celtics Betting Preview
If you’ve read our series previews, you know I love hunting for rebounding edges — and this series between Philadelphia and Boston presents a huge edge for the Celtics.
When you look at the team-level data, the disparity is staggering. Boston enters this postseason as a top-five defensive rebounding team in the league. On the flip side, the 76ers have been average at best on the glass all season, and that was with Joel Embiid.
So, I'm going back to a prop that has consistently made us money over the years: Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 Rebounds.
Let’s look at Jayson Tatum’s individual volume. Since he returned from that Achilles injury earlier this year, we saw three ramp-up games where he was finding his legs.
But in the final 13 games of the regular season, he was a different animal. He averaged 34 minutes and 10.8 rebounds per game. He cleared double digit rebounds in 69% of those games (9 out of 13).
Even more impressive for those of us looking at alt-lines: he recorded 12 or more boards in six of those 13 games—nearly half the time—including massive performances of 14 and 18 rebounds.
There is a clear trend here: Tatum is aging up positionally. Whether it’s a conscious effort to move less on the perimeter post-injury or just sticking closer to the rim to help a smaller Boston team, it’s working.
Remember, this isn't the Celtics frontcourt of 2024; there’s no Al Horford, no Kristaps Porziņģis, and no Luke Kornet vacuuming up boards. Tatum is playing up positionally, and the rebounds are falling right into his lap.
Historically, this is an angle I like to target year after year. In the playoffs, Tatum simply rebounds more. Over the last two postseason runs, he has averaged 10.2 rebounds per game. Last year, in an eight-game sample, he hauled in 14 rebounds in half of those games.
The postseason intensity scales up his activity level, and against a Philly team missing its centerpiece, his floor is incredibly high.
Philadelphia 76ers Betting Preview
Joel Embiid is officially out for the Sixers in Game 1. That is a massive void in the paint that Philly simply cannot fill.
Furthermore, Boston is a top-seven offensive rebounding team, while Philly is bottom-five in defensive rebounding.
We’ve talked about Andre Drummond as a potential solution, but some of my colleagues are skeptical he can even stay on the court in this series given the pace and spacing Boston will throw at them.
If Drummond can't play heavy minutes, the Sixers lose their only truly elite rebounder, widening the gap even further for Tatum to feast on the glass.
76ers vs Celtics Pick, Betting Analysis
You can grab the baseline of 9.5 (+106) at DraftKings — but since I'm confident in the projected volume, I’m also taking the escalator.
This is how we maximize the ROI on a mismatch like this:
- 12+ Rebounds (+288)
- 14+ Rebounds (+700)
Tatum recorded 14+ rebounds in 50% of his playoff games last year.
So, my main pick for this game is Tatum over 9.5 rebounds, but I will also nibble on alternate lines at 12+ and 14+ as well.
76ers vs Celtics Best Bets
- Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 Rebounds (+105)
- Jayson Tatum 12+ Rebounds (+288)
- Jayson Tatum 14+ Rebounds (+700)
