The Indiana Pacers (6-25) and Miami Heat (16-15) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Heat are 8.5-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread (Heat -8.5), with the over/under set at 230.5 total points. Miami is a -380 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Indiana is +290 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Pacers vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, December 27.
Pacers vs Heat Prediction, Picks
- Pacers vs Heat pick: Pacers Moneyline (+290)
My Heat vs Pacers best bet is on Indiana moneyline, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Pacers vs Heat Odds
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 230.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 230.5 -110o / -110u | -380 |
Pacers vs Heat NBA Preview
After reaching the NBA Finals last season, the Indiana Pacers have endured a stunning collapse without Tyrese Haliburton and enter this matchup sitting at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a brutal 6-25 record.
Indiana has dropped seven straight games, most recently a 140-122 loss to the Boston Celtics on Friday. Defense has been a consistent issue during this skid, and injuries have only compounded the problem as the Pacers continue to play short-handed on the road.
Indiana now travels to Miami for the first meeting of the season between these teams, also on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Pacers remain without Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin, and several rotation pieces, forcing them to rely on depth players and pace to stay competitive.
Despite the ugly results, Indiana has generally played with urgency away from home, knowing every game represents a chance to halt a free fall.
Miami hasn’t been much steadier. The Heat snapped a three-game losing streak on Friday with a 126-111 comeback win over the Hawks in Atlanta, but they are still losers of eight of their last 10 games overall.
That victory came with a depleted roster, as Bam Adebayo sat out with lower back soreness and Tyler Herro remained sidelined.
Norman Powell led the way with 25 points, Pelle Larsson added 21, and rookie Kel’el Ware chipped in a double-double as Miami finally found some offensive rhythm.
Returning home doesn’t necessarily offer comfort for the Heat, who have lost their last three games in Miami. They also face this matchup on the second night of a back-to-back, again without multiple key contributors.
While the win in Atlanta may suggest momentum, Miami remains a thin team searching for consistency, particularly on offense.
Pacers vs Heat Prediction, Betting Analysis
This spot lines up cleanly with our “Fade Just Got Home” system. Miami fits the profile of a mildly hot home team coming off a single encouraging win after a rough stretch, creating inflated confidence in the betting market.
The Heat were underdogs in their previous game, and that comeback victory is likely to trigger an overreaction, especially with the public viewing it as a turning point.
Indiana, despite its losing streak, benefits from the pricing inefficiency created by this setup. Road underdogs tend to show sharper focus in these situations, while home teams returning from short road trips often struggle to meet heightened expectations.
With Miami still shorthanded and not dominant by any metric, this is a classic contrarian opportunity during the heart of the NBA season.
The Pacers’ urgency, combined with Miami’s fragile form and market inflation, makes Indiana the value side. Back the Pacers on the moneyline as an underdog.
Pick: Pacers Moneyline (+290)
