NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Sunday, Feb. 11
Via Brian Babineau/Getty Images. Pictured: Kristaps Porzingis #8 of the Boston Celtics and Jrue Holiday #4 of the Boston Celtics stands for the National Anthem before the game against the Detroit Pistons on December 28, 2023 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.
The NBA regular season continues on Super Bowl Sunday with a small but mighty two-game slate featuring the Celtics taking on the Heat and the Thunder hosting the Kings this afternoon. Our NBA betting experts are ready with four best bets for Celtics vs. Heat in an Eastern Conference Finals rematch as they have four player prop picks, including one cross-sport bet with the Super Bowl.
Read below for their NBA best bets and expert picks for Sunday, Feb. 11.
NBA Best Bets | Expert Picks for Sunday, Feb. 11
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 2 p.m. | ||
| 2 p.m. | ||
| 2 p.m. | ||
| 2 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Celtics vs. Heat
By Joe Dellera
The Celtics take on the Miami Heat today, and Jrue Holiday should thrive in this matchup.
Holiday contributes in a variety of ways every time he takes the floor, but his rebounding stands out in this spot.
Holiday’s rebounds line is set at 4.5 boards, a number he’s cleared in 75% of games this season while averaging six rebounds per game. He’s been even better against Miami – since 2021, he’s exceeded this line in 89% of games, including nine straight.
Most of these games came when he was with the Bucks; however, he’s still hit this over in both games against the Heat as a member of the Celtics. In those games he recorded 10 and five rebounds on 18 and seven chances.
The Heat rank 19th in Rebound Rate, so even though they play at a slower Pace, I expect Holiday to secure at least five boards today.
Pick: Jrue Holiday Over 4.5 Rebounds (-104)
Celtics vs. Heat
Holiday should have a decent chance to go over this line against a Miami team that ranks 26th in rebounding with 49.7 per game. In contrast, the Celtics rank second in this category, averaging 55.2 rebounds.
Moreover, since Miami ranks 25th in Field Goal percentage (46.2%), Holiday will have ample opportunities to crash the boards. In two games against Miami this season, Holiday is averaging 7.5 rebounds. If we go back to last season, when Holiday was a member of the Bucks, he faced the Heat nine times (including the playoffs) and recorded five or more rebounds in eight of those games.
With this game being an early tipoff, it wouldn’t surprise me if both teams started a little rusty in finding their shots. When you put it all together, I think this game will be more of a defensive battle, thus making rebounding all the more critical for Holiday and his teammates.
Pick: Jrue Holiday Over 4.5 Rebounds (-104)
Celtics vs. Heat
Kristaps Porzingis is a matchup problem for the Miami Heat because his combination of length and shooting makes him one of the only guys Bam Adebayo has had some trouble with this season.
KP has made two or more 3-pointers in five of his last six games against Adebayo while going over 18.5 points in four of those six — which I also played on the Action App.
KP will have opportunities from deep in an attempt to stretch the Heat defense, and the Heat will allow a few attempts due to an emphasis on minimizing shots at the rim. Porzingis has made at least two 3-pointers in seven of his last eight and in eight of his last 10 games. This should be damn near automatic as long as he isn't in foul trouble or doesn't limp off the floor after banging knees with someone in the second quarter.
Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 Made 3s (-117)
Celtics vs. Heat
By Maltman
Rashee Rice’s receptions and Kristaps Porzingis’s rebounds both have the same total set at 6.5, and both are similarly favored for the over. However, we are getting plus-money on Porzingis on this bet, although I believe he should be favored.
Porzingis has hit this over in four of his last five games and six of his last seven versus Miami. He had a double-double last game, and he has a higher ceiling and a higher floor than Rice. No matter what, Porzingis is getting some boards, and he is +330 for 10+ on FanDuel.
Rice has gone over this number in well under 50% of his games this year. While he could go over, there are many ways he hits the under, whether the Chiefs go up and throw less, or the 49ers defense just shuts him down. He has a lower floor and lower ceiling compared to Porzingis and is +370 for 10+ receptions on FanDuel.
It’s a fun crossover bet where I like Porzingis for the over and Rice for the under. Getting plus-money on both together is the perfect combo.
I’m betting .25u on Porzingis to have more rebounds than Rice receptions at +105 on Caesars (and would bet this down to -105).
Pick: Kristaps Porzingis More Rebounds Than Rashee Rice Receptions +105
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