The NBA postseason continues tonight, Wednesday, April 29, with three crucial Game 5s. Our Pick Labs projections have identified significant value on the ladder for Jalen Duren, Max Strus, and Marcus Smart as we look to cash a +1621 parlay.
Let's get into our NBA Parlay Picks for Wednesday.
NBA Parlay Picks: Wednesday, April 29
- Jalen Duren 3+ Assists (+168)
- Max Strus 10+ Points (+111)
- Marcus Smart 6+ Assists (+209)
Parlay Payout: +1621 (DraftKings)
Jalen Duren | Assists Milestones
Magic vs. Pistons | 7:00 p.m. ET
Some of my colleagues are fading Jalen Duren in the Points & Rebounds market today, largely due to Orlando’s defensive scheme.
The Magic are shading all of their coverage to Duren, acting like a magnet in the paint to contest every layup. However, that defensive gravity has naturally opened up his passing lanes.
Duren has already recorded 3+ assists in two of the four games this series, and prior to the postseason, he cleared this mark in five consecutive games.
If Orlando continues to swarm him, expect Duren to find open shooters on the perimeter.
Our Pick Labs Ladders Tool is projecting a 52.9% chance of Duren recording 3+ assists, while +168 only implies a 37.3% chance.
2+ Assists: 75.8% Proj. Chance | 11.3% Edge
3+ Assists: 52.9% Proj. Chance | 15.6% Edge
4+ Assists: 29.4% Proj. Chance | 11.1% Edge
Max Strus | Points Milestones
Raptors vs. Cavaliers | 7:30 p.m. ET
Max Strus has been streaky in this series. He’s had games where he looks like the elite floor-spacer Cleveland paid for (15+ points in Games 1 and 3) and others where the bucket looks like it has a lid on it (1 point in Game 4).
Despite an 0-of-5 night from deep last game, his volume remains high, and the Cavaliers return home tonight where role players historically find their legs.
We’re backing Strus to find his rhythm in Game 5. He’s going to keep shooting, and with the series tied 2-2, the Cavs need his scoring to keep Toronto’s defense honest.
Our Pick Labs Ladders Tool is projecting a 57.1% chance of Strus scoring 10+ points, while +111 only implies a 47.4% chance.
10+ Points: 57.1% Proj. Chance | 9.8% Edge
12+ Points: 43.1% Proj. Chance | 8.3% Edge
15+ Points: 24.3% Proj. Chance | 5.1% Edge
Marcus Smart | Assists Milestones
Rockets vs. Lakers | 10:00 p.m. ET
The Lakers' assist market has been volatile following Shams Charania's report that Austin Reaves is "optimistic" for a return in Game 5.
However, even if Reaves is active, it’s unlikely he’ll see a full workload immediately. There's no reason to push him too hard with the Lakers leading 3-1 in the series.
Marcus Smart has been one of the primary facilitators for this offense in the absence of Reaves and Doncic, and the results have been really solid.
Smart has recorded 5+ assists in every game this series and 7+ in three of the four. Overall, he’s cleared the 7-assist mark in six of his last seven games.
Even with Reaves potentially on the floor, Smart should still remain a high-usage facilitator for long stretches tonight.
Our Pick Labs Ladders Tool is projecting a 56.4% chance of Smart recording 6+ assists, while +209 only implies a 32.4% chance.
5+ Assists: 73.2% Proj. Chance | 24.2% Edge
6+ Assists: 56.4% Proj. Chance | 24.0% Edge
7+ Assists: 40.0% Proj. Chance | 20.2% Edge
NBA Parlay for Tonight 4/29
- Jalen Duren 3+ Assists (+168)
- Max Strus 10+ Points (+111)
- Marcus Smart 6+ Assists (+209)
Parlay Payout: +1621 (DraftKings)
If you combine these three props from our top edges in Pick Labs, you get a parlay with a potential a payout of +1621.
This is considered a long shot for the reason, and you should treat it as such. However, we are showing a nice edge at that price — with our Pick Labs models projecting a 17.1% chance of this parlay hitting, while +1621 implies only a 5.81% chance.
