NBA Player Prop & Pick: Bet Jerami Grant in Thunder vs. Trail Blazers

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Thunder vs.

Trail Blazers

Jerami Grant, 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

After a strong start to his first season in Portland, Grant has slowed down of late. Over his last 30 games, the Syracuse product is averaging 25.5 PRA, failing to clear this line in 25 of those contests. In fact, he’s under this line in 17 of the last 18 games.

The Trailblazers will be without Jusuf Nurkic tonight, as well as the recently traded Josh Hart. In a 330 minute sample with those two off the court this season, Grant’s PRA of 26.4 per 36 minutes is slightly below his season average (27.8 PRA per 36 minutes). While he does see a 2.3% usage uptick, that pales in comparison to both Damian Lillard (+8.0%) and Anfernee Simons (+6.4%).

Digging deeper, it’s notable that Grant served as both Hart and Nurkic’s most assisted player, accounting for 27% of his made baskets. Plus, Grant’s frontcourt touches are down to 27 over the last 15 games (compared to 34 previously). With Damian Lillard continuing to produce at improbable levels, I expect Grant’s touches to remain lessened.

On the matchup side, both Lillard and Simons are in better position to produce against the Thunder defense. Grant figures to see plenty of Jalen Williams and Kenrich Williams, two of the stronger Oklahoma City defenders.

Even with the Blazers a bit shorthanded, I have Grant projected at 25 PRA tonight, and would play this line down to under 28.5 PRA.

Pick: Grant Under 29.5 PRA (-120)