NBA Player Props Today: Fade Pascal Siakam in Nuggets vs. Raptors (March 14)

NBA Player Props Today: Fade Pascal Siakam in Nuggets vs. Raptors (March 14) article feature image

Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Pascal Siakam #43 of the Toronto Raptors.

  • The Toronto Raptors host the Denver Nuggets in an NBA TV matchup Tuesday, and one player prop stands out.
  • PropBetGuy is focused on a Pascal Siakam combo prop and expects the All-Star to struggle in his matchup with the Nuggets.
  • Read on for his analysis and betting pick below.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Pascal Siakam, Under 33.5 PTS + REB + AST

OddsSiakam u33.5 PRA (-111)
Time7:30 p.m. ET
Books AvailableFanDuel

En route to his second All-Star selection, Pascal Siakam has averaged 37.9 combined points, rebounds and assists (PRA) over the course of the season. So allow me to explain why I’m fading the Toronto Raptors forward on a PRA line that is more than 11% less than his full-season average.

First, the Raptors are fully healthy. Five of their top six options boast a usage rate of at least 20%, and the one exception, Jakob Poeltl, leads the team in rebounds since he came over from the San Antonio Spurs.

The Raptors have only played six full games with their top six options all active, and Siakam has failed to clear this PRA line in each contest. The forward’s Usage Rate has plummeted to 22% (from 27% previously) as he’s incurred a meaningful drop in shot volume, and rebound and assist chances.

A matchup with the Denver Nuggets pits Siakam against Aaron Gordon, one of the better defenders in the NBA. Gordon rates in the 95th percentile of defensive estimated plus-minus (per Dunks and Threes), and he held Siakam to 27 PRA in 36 minutes in their matchup last week.

And as we’ve seen of late, the Raptors no longer need to force-feed Siakam volume when he’s facing a suboptimal matchup. I envision a bigger game for the likes of Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. off the bench.

I have Siakam projected at 30 PRA tonight, and would play this line down to under 32.5 PRA.

Pick: Siakam under 33.5 PTS + REB + AST — Down to 32.5

Get all of PropBetGuy's bets instantly in The Action Network app.

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.

Sportsbook Promos
See All
Legal Online Sports Betting

bet365 Bonus Code TOPACTION: Get $1K First Bet or $150 Guaranteed For MLB, Any Matchup Sunday

Doug Ziefel
Jun 23, 2024 UTC