NBA Player Props Today: Fade Pascal Siakam in Nuggets vs. Raptors (March 14)

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Nuggets vs.

Raptors

Pascal Siakam, Under 33.5 PTS + REB + AST

En route to his second All-Star selection, Pascal Siakam has averaged 37.9 combined points, rebounds and assists (PRA) over the course of the season. So allow me to explain why I’m fading the Toronto Raptors forward on a PRA line that is more than 11% less than his full-season average.

First, the Raptors are fully healthy. Five of their top six options boast a usage rate of at least 20%, and the one exception, Jakob Poeltl, leads the team in rebounds since he came over from the San Antonio Spurs.

The Raptors have only played six full games with their top six options all active, and Siakam has failed to clear this PRA line in each contest. The forward’s Usage Rate has plummeted to 22% (from 27% previously) as he’s incurred a meaningful drop in shot volume, and rebound and assist chances.

A matchup with the Denver Nuggets pits Siakam against Aaron Gordon, one of the better defenders in the NBA. Gordon rates in the 95th percentile of defensive estimated plus-minus (per Dunks and Threes), and he held Siakam to 27 PRA in 36 minutes in their matchup last week.

And as we’ve seen of late, the Raptors no longer need to force-feed Siakam volume when he’s facing a suboptimal matchup. I envision a bigger game for the likes of Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. off the bench.

I have Siakam projected at 30 PRA tonight, and would play this line down to under 32.5 PRA.

Pick: Siakam under 33.5 PTS + REB + AST — Down to 32.5

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