Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Jonas Valanciunas Points, More

Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Jonas Valanciunas Points, More article feature image
Credit:

Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Memphis Grizzlies center Jonas Valanciunas (17).

  • Sunday's four-game NBA slate features two player prop bets offering value.
  • This piece will focus on Timberwolves PG Derrick Rose and Grizzlies C Jonas Valanciunas.

Sunday’s best NBA player props focus on two of the slate’s four games:

  • Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards: 6 p.m. ET
  • Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder: 7 p.m. ET on NBATV

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10.

All odds as of 3:45 p.m. ET. View live odds here

Timberwolves PG Derrick Rose

The Pick: Under 18.5 points (-115)

The Timberwolves are in one of the best scoring spots of the day vs. the Washington Wizards. They rank just 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 120.0 points ranks second on today’s slate.

That said, it doesn’t matter how good your matchup is if you’re sitting on the bench. Rose has seen a big reduction in playing time since returning from an injury seven games ago, averaging just 24.1 minutes over that time frame. He’s still had some big scoring performances in those contests, but asking anyone to score 19 or more points in only 24 minutes is a difficult proposition.

Rose has averaged 18.2 points in 28.0 minutes per game this season, so this line feels high given his reduced role. I like the under up to -125.

Grizzlies C Jonas Valanciunas

The Pick: Over 17.5 points (-114)

The Grizzlies are going to be extremely shorthanded for tonight’s contest vs. the Thunder. Mike Conley is out. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out. Kyle Anderson is out. Valanciunas is literally the last man standing.

The good news is that’s creating some value with his scoring prop that we can take advantage of. He’s posted a usage rate of 30.6% through his first six games with the team, and he will likely improve upon that mark today. He’s averaged a career-best 26.6 points per 36 minutes as a member of the Grizzlies, and he’s currently projected for 28.5 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models.

Valanciunas can get buckets when given the opportunity, and he should have plenty of opportunities on today’s slate. I like the over up to -135.

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