PropBetGuy’s Wednesday Player Prop: Fade Stephen Curry in Western Conference Finals Game 1 (May 18)

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Stephen Curry Under 38.5 PTS + REB + AST

As a basketball fan, I love seeing the Stephen Curry-led Warriors on the cusp of yet another NBA Finals appearance. Regardless of how this series shakes out, the Steph/Klay Thompson/Draymond Green teams will go down as one of the NBAs premier dynasties.

However, as a player prop bettor, I’m not here for a fun narrative. I’m here for the value. And tonight, I’m fading Curry in Game 1.

The Mavericks are significantly better equipped to defend Curry than the Warriors previous two playoff opponents. Not only did the Mavericks finish the regular season allowing the second fewest PRA to opposing point guards (and the least three pointers) over the last 30 games, but they have shut down both Donovan Mitchell and Chris Paul in the playoffs thus far.

Dallas won three out of four games against the Warriors in the regular season, and they bracketed Curry as much as possible. Reggie Bullock, who figures to draw the bulk of the defensive assignment, held the Splash Brother to 8-of-27 shooting across their four matchups.

And now with the emergence of Jordan Poole and the resurrection of Klay Thompson, Curry isn’t in the same position as Luka Doncic, where he needs to score 30+ points.

In what should be a drastically slower series compared to the bout they just endured with the Grizzlies, I see some tempered stat lines in Curry's future. I have him projected at 34 PRA.

Pick: Stephen Curry under 38.5 PRA (-106) — playable down to 37.5

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