PropBetGuy’s NBA Player Prop Pick for Bulls vs. Bucks: Fade Khris Middleton in Game 2? (Wednesday, April 20)

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Khris Middleton Points + Rebounds + Assists

After another strong regular season, the reigning-champion Milwaukee Bucks opened their title defense with a gritty Game 1 win against the Bulls.

Despite playing 39 minutes, Bucks forward Khris Middleton was held to 20 combined points, rebounds and assists (PRA), including only 13 field goal attempts and two free throw attempts. Giannis Antetokounmpo put up his typical 46 PRA, and Jrue Holiday chipped in with 27 PRA.

Middleton's Game 1 performance is fairly indicative of the regular season: When he shared the court alongside his fellow star teammates, Middleton was the one who sacrificed the most.

He saw a 6 PRA reduction per 36 minutes playing with Antetokounmpo and Holiday, as well as a 5% usage reduction. Furthermore, when the trio played full games together, Middleton stayed under the current line (32.5 PRA) in 33 of 46 games (71%).

Moreover, the Texas A&M product commands the toughest individual matchup, going toe-to-toe with Alex Caruso. During Game 1, Caruso limited Middleton to 1-for-2 from the field with three turnovers in 37.7 partial possessions (50% of Middleton’s total). It’s not a matchup the Bucks are likely to attack, given that Antetokounmpo and Holiday are seeing softer looks.

Tonight, I have Middleton projected at 29 PRA.

Pick: Khris Middleton under 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (play to 31.5)

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