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PropBetGuy’s Saturday NBA Player Prop: Nikola Jokic Faces Stiff Test Against Warriors’ Defense

PropBetGuy’s Saturday NBA Player Prop: Nikola Jokic Faces Stiff Test Against Warriors’ Defense article feature image

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic and Draymond Green

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Nikola Jokic PRAs

Prop Under 51.5 P+R+A (-111)
Matchup Nuggets vs. Warriors
Time 8:30 p.m. ET
Books Available FanDuel

Let’s get this one out of the way — Nikola Jokic is really good at basketball. The Nuggets center averaged 48.8 PRA over the course of 74 games this season, putting together a compelling argument to repeat as MVP.

That being said, there’s value on this under, especially since we’re getting this line at almost 3 PRA above his average. His usage rate of 32% this season was his career high, and playing without Jamaal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. virtually all season, there isn’t much room for an increase in the playoffs.

And the matchup won’t be easy for the Joker. The Warriors rated as the second-best defensive team this season, and should be clicking on all cylinders with Draymond Green fully healthy. Jokic did not face a Green-led Warriors defense this season, but last year, he only managed 47, 47 and 41 PRA in three meetings.

I expect Kevon Looney to draw the individual assignment on Jokic, and Green to command the help side defense on the big man’s facilitating. Against a Warriors defense that held opponents to the third-fewest points, fifth-fewest rebounds and second-fewest assists this season, I have Jokic pegged at 47 PRA.

The Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 51.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-111 at FanDuel) | Playable Down To 49.5.

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