PropBetGuy’s NBA Player Prop: Don’t Expect a Bam Adebayo Outburst in Game 5 (Tuesday, April 26)

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Bam Adebayo Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

As we trudge on to Game 5 of the Hawks vs. Heat series, it’s difficult to ignore some prevailing trends with the Heat offense. Jimmy Butler has begun to impose his will, averaging 20.3 field goal attempts and 8.5 free throw attempts per game, going along with a 2.5% Usage bump from his regular season numbers.

Butler’s assertiveness has cut into Adebayo’s production. Bam has yet to reach 15 points in any of the four games thus far in this series. His usage is down to 18%, a 6% reduction from the 24% he incurred in the regular season.

His drop off in scoring is driven by reduced touches. After receiving 12.2 paint + elbow touches per 32 minutes in the regular season, he’s down to 9.7 per 32 minutes thus far in the playoffs. As Butler has taken more command of the offense, we’re seeing Adebayo clear out of the paint to give his All-Star teammate more room to operate.

On the rebounding front, Bam has never fared well on the glass against Clint Capela. In fact, he’s failed to reach nine rebounds in six of his seven starts against the Hawks big man.

While Adebayo’s impact on the game often extends beyond the box score, I do think his counting stats are a bit inflated tonight. I have the Heat big man projected at 27 PRA.

Pick: Bam Adebayo Under 30.5 PRA (Play to 29.5)