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The Arizona State Sun Devils take on the UCF Knights in Orlando, Florida, on Saturday, Nov. 14. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
UCF is favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -155. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my Arizona State vs. UCF prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14, 2026.
Arizona State vs UCF Prediction
- Arizona State vs. UCF Pick: Over 48.5 (-112)
My UCF vs. Arizona State best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Arizona State vs UCF Odds
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -108 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | +130 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -112 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | -155 |
- Arizona State vs UCF point spread: UCF -3 (-112), Arizona State +3 (-108)
- Arizona State vs UCF over/under: 48.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Arizona State vs UCF moneyline: Arizona State +130, UCF -155
Arizona State vs UCF College Football Preview
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview: No Magic Left
Arizona State has alternated wins and losses all season, and the Sun Devils showed quite a bit of promise not only in wins over Kansas State and Colorado, but also in a close loss at BYU.
Head coach Kenny Dillingham has failed to recapture the magic of 2024. Last season was a backslide, and this season appears to be an even bigger one.
The disappointment has been in the quarterback room, as Cutter Boley was benched halfway through the season and backup QB Mikey Keene has battled injuries.
The offense hasn't been consistent enough to contend with the better offensive teams in the conference, and the play-calling has been unoriginal. The defense has fought hard, but it hasn't been enough against tougher Big 12 foes.
The Sun Devils have turned to freshman Jake Fette to run the offense, and he has played mediocre football in his three starts. Last week against Colorado was his best performance, as Fette completed 13-of-19 passes for 187 yards.
The ground game has been largely inconsistent this season. The Sun Devils are averaging just 136 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry with minimal explosiveness.
The defense has played well for ASU, particularly in stopping the run over the last five weeks. Four opponents have been held to 84 yards or less, with only Texas Tech breaking through on the ground.
ASU has some disruptors along the defensive line, with Jalen Thompson and Julian Hugo registering nine sacks combined.
The secondary has prevented explosive plays, but Arizona State can be passed on, and six of the last seven opponents have thrown for at least 235 yards against ASU.
UCF Knights Betting Preview: Barnett to the Rescue
UCF narrowly avoided disaster on the road against Kansas last week, as the Knights blew a 19-point lead and needed a heroic touchdown in the final seconds to secure a hard-fought win.
UCF sits at 5-4 and has to be highly motivated to secure bowl eligibility, as head coach Scott Frost has not had a winning season since his undefeated “National Championship” season with UCF in 2017.
Alonza Barnett came back from injury and played pretty well against Kansas. Barnett completed 18-of-31 passes for 251 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including the game-winner with one second left.
He showed good mobility, and the comeback win could be what UCF needs to jump-start a winning streak.
The offense wasn't as potent without Barnett in the lineup, and he could have a lot on his shoulders here, as leading rusher Duke Watson is out with an injury and the ground attack has been pedestrian most of the season.
The defense has tapered off over the last five games, surrendering 417 yards per game and six yards per play over that stretch.
Each of the last four opponents has scored at least 31 points against UCF, and Houston scored 27 despite three separate goal-to-go red-zone drives ending with zero combined points.
Three major contributors in the secondary have been deemed out for this contest, with five more players in the two-deep listed as questionable. This unit is banged up, and for UCF to stay in this game, it appears it will have to do so by outscoring its opponent.
Arizona State vs UCF Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with UCF listed as a 2.5-point favorite and has bounced between that line and -3.5 much of the week.
The total has been bet down from its opening number of 52.5 to 48.5, where it currently sits. Forty-nine, 51 and 52 are critical key numbers in totals, and since falling below those three thresholds, I like the over in this matchup.
UCF is banged up defensively, and the unit has played poorly over the last five weeks. DJ Bell, Demari Henderson and Kahmel Johnson are listed as “out” in the recently published player availability reports furnished by the Big 12 Conference. A pair of other defensive backs and two linebackers are also listed as questionable.
I don’t hate the idea of ASU going into Orlando with a game plan of trying to throw the football against this depleted secondary, and I think Reed Harris and Omarion Miller can win those battles.
UCF doesn't have a particularly disruptive defense, and four of the last five contests have resulted in sack totals of zero or one.
The Knights haven't generated much activity in the backfield, and I wouldn't expect that to change at this point in the season given the defensive injuries.
Arizona State will move the ball here, and this team has scored 19 or more points in every game this season. I think it can score 24 points here.
UCF needs another heroic effort from Barnett. With Watson out, the Knights will be searching for answers when running the football, and I'm not convinced they're going to have success moving the ball on the ground against an ASU front that ranks 42nd nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed and explosiveness allowed.
Barnett will have to throw the ball a lot, and UCF should have success against the Sun Devils, who have surrendered eight yards per pass over the last four weeks.
The defensive injuries and advantages in the passing game for both offenses have me on the over in this matchup. This should be a fun one in Orlando on Saturday afternoon. High side!
Pick: Over 48.5 (-112)
Arizona State vs UCF Betting Trends
