Week 5 College Football Odds, Picks: Collin Wilson’s Bets for Auburn vs Georgia, Arkansas vs Texas A&M

Week 5 of the college football season is upon us.

After a stellar Week 4 that saw a total of six ranked-on-ranked matchups, we have another solid slate in Week 5. While the number of ranked showdowns has decreased, there's still betting value to be had across the board.

It all starts on Friday night when the Utah Utes travel to Corvallis to take on the Oregon State Beavers in a top-20 battle between two Pac-12 rivals.

Then, the action ramps up early on Saturday.

The day kicks off with two stellar conference clashes, as Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes host defending Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and the high-powered USC Trojans, while the Texas A&M Aggies and Arkansas Razorbacks hit the field in Arlington in search of a much-needed SEC victory.

Then, to wrap up my card, the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs make the trip to Sweet Home Alabama to take on the Auburn Tigers in an afternoon cross-division showdown.

Read on for breakdowns and picks for all four games on my Action Network college football Week 5 betting card.

Collin Wilson's Week 5 Betting Card

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

The Pac-12 is often thought of as a defense-is-optional, high-powered offensive finesse conference.

Friday night will provide a different narrative, as the two most physical teams are set to battle in the trenches at a potentially rainy Reser Stadium.

While the all-time series between Utah and Oregon State shows a 12-12-1 mark, it's the Utes that have had extreme success over the past decade. Head coach Kyle Whittingham continues to produce the best defenses west of the Mississippi River as Utah seeks its third straight Pac-12 championship.

As the Utes' star quarterback Cam Rising continues to sit with injury, the defense led the way in a conference-opening victory against UCLA.

Meanwhile, a loss in Week 4 put a dimmer on the hopes of Oregon State winning the Pac-12 in its final season. The Beavers failed to force interceptions, allowing Washington State to take a comfortable home lead into the fourth quarter.

Oregon State returns to the friendly confines of Corvallis this week, where head coach Jonathan Smith has accumulated a 13-1 against-the-spread mark since the 2021 season.

For the Beavers to have any chance at a conference title, Friday night is a must-win in a game that will have plenty of pads popping for all consumers.

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The quarterback situation remains unclear for Utah, but the Utes nearly pitched a shutout on the defensive side to beat UCLA in Week 4. The Bruins were held to 3.6 overall yards per play, with 60% of rushing attempts stuffed and an average third down distance of 10.3 yards.

Utah forced 11 tackles for loss with seven sacks on the afternoon, and the opening pick-six proved to be the difference in the low-scoring affair.

Like Oregon State, the Utes shred opposing rushing attacks with top 10 ranks in nearly every advanced statistic.

The key difference between the two teams is the back seven of Utah, as it ranks top-25 in coverage and Passing Success Rate. Utah is the top-rated defense nationally in terms of Passing Downs Success Rate.

Both starters on the edge have terrorized opponent quarterbacks, as Logan Fano and Jonah Elliss have combined for 27 pressures and nine sacks on the season.

And that's why all the questions surrounding the future of Utah are centered at the quarterback position.

Rising spent the summer recovering from an ACL injury, which he suffered midway through the Rose Bowl against Penn State. Expectations for the season opener against Florida were tempered, but now the senior quarterback is rumored to redshirt — with all eyes on 2024.

Nate Johnson started the 2023 campaign behind Bryson Barnes on the depth chart, but now has the starter role in the absence of Rising. Johnson has struggled with his passing attempts, generating three turnover-worthy plays this season.

Despite three fumbles against UCLA, the best attribute Johnson has under center is his contribution to a run game led by Ja'Quinden Jackson.

At 4.8 yards after contact, Jackson has posted eight explosive runs and one of the highest elusive ratings in the conference.

The Beavers were in cruise control coming into conference play, as they allowed 16 points in their previous two games to San Diego State and UC Davis.

Oregon State acted as a brick wall to opposing rushing attacks, ranking top-15 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.

Defensive interior Sione Lolohea ranked as one of the highest individual players in tackles for loss, but a date against the explosive pass unit of Washington State set the Beavers back in the loss column.

Quarterback Cam Ward shredded the Oregon State secondary for 400 yards and four touchdowns, as the havoc-minded Beavers were unable to force any interceptions.

The specialty of this defense remains defending the ground game and limiting explosives in passing downs.

Linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold leads the team in tackles, assists and stops.

While the defense has been lethal against the rush, it's the offensive ground game that makes the headlines. Oregon State is the highest-ranked offense on the ground in terms of Rushing Success Rate, led by sophomore bulldozer Damien Martinez.

The combination of Martinez, running back Deshaun Fenwick and Clemson transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has made this the top red zone offense in the nation. In 27 drives past the opposing teams' 40-yard line, the Beavers are averaging 5.1 points per scoring opportunity.

The key to stopping the Beavers is knocking them off schedule, as their efficiency takes a plunge in Passing Down Explosives and Passing Success Rate.

Any opposing defense that can't stop the run will have a long night against Oregon State.

While most viewers tune into the Pac-12 for high-flying offenses, Friday night will be anything but an air show from Corvallis.

Both teams excel at running the ball and each have quarterbacks well versed in zone-read schemes to move the chains.

The handicap in this game is about which defensive front seven is better equipped to stop the ground game at the line of scrimmage. While both teams have had a similar strength of schedule, Utah has played the better rushing attacks, as Baylor and UCLA are in the top 35 of run blocking grades.

Baylor was more successful against the Utes' defensive front, averaging 4.2 yards per play on 29 rushing attempts in a Week 2 game at Waco.

The Utah defense has the advantage in terms of Quality Drives, with a top-10 rank against an Oregon State team that's 41st offensively in the same category.

If there's an area Utah can be exposed in, it's an inefficient offense that has trouble taking care of the rock. Johnson has six fumbles on the season, three alone against UCLA.

Oregon State has forced seven fumbles this season, just one shy of the national lead. The Beavers' high Havoc rank is powered by fumbles and tackles for loss, both troublesome areas for a Utah team that ranks 93rd in Havoc Allowed.

The Action Network Power Rating places Utah as a one-point favorite, as inefficiency and turnovers have contributed to a steam number in favor of the Beavers. There may be no greater home field advantage than Oregon State in Reser Stadium, a factor that contributes to market love for the home team.

While the number may be inflated on the Beavers' side, there's no reason to think this game goes over the total. Both offenses play a slow, grinding tempo and each defense specializes in stopping the rush.

The Beavers and Utes excel at stopping the big play on passing downs, signaling that each drive will be methodical.

Expect the defenses — which rank in the top 30 in Finishing Drives — to be a contributing factor to a low-scoring total.

Look to scoop the key number of 45 in a totals market that's sure to steam with weather pending.

The wind is not out of the sails for Colorado football despite two consecutive non-covering efforts. Oregon hosted the Buffaloes in an afternoon snoozer that saw more than 10 million viewers tune in.

Now, Colorado is set to face a team from a major television market with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, as USC comes to Boulder for a Pac-12 showdown.

The Buffaloes were shredded during the first half in Autzen Stadium, entering halftime without any points and a 35-point deficit. The Ducks took their foot off the pedal, as all eyes turned to the Buffs' Week 5 showdown with the Trojans.

USC had struggles of its own in a late-night shootout with Arizona State. Head coach Lincoln Riley was blunt in his assessment of the Trojans' execution, as Pac-12 referees were busy leaving laundry on the field in Tempe.

While the offense remains one of the best in the nation, the defense has taken steps in the right direction from the perspective of Havoc and limiting opponent scoring.

With the highest total on the board for Week 5, there will be no shortage of fireworks in Boulder.

The numbers indicate improvement from the USC defense, which ranks top-five in Havoc and Finishing Drives. Opponents have generated 24 scoring opportunities against the Trojans, but they've averaged less than a point per trip on the season.

The defense has been eager to provide chaos, causing eight fumbles and leading the nation in tackles for loss.

Edge Solomon Byrd not only leads the team in pressures but has generated a team-high 11 stops, which is defined as a failure by the offense.

Although the numbers indicate defensive improvement, the quality of offenses USC has faced has been less than desirable. The average offensive rank for San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford and Arizona State is 104th, per SP+.

Areas of improvement linger in preventing the big play, coverage and tackle grading.

While the defense is untested, the USC offense has not missed a beat from the 2022 season.

Quarterback Caleb Williams has a plethora of explosive options, as Zachariah Branch, Brenden Rice and Duce Robinson all average at least three yards per route run. Slot receiver Tahj Washington leads all targets on the best offense nationally in big-play rate in first downs.

Success Rate is not just a measurement of gaining the yards needed depending on down and distance; it's also a strong indicator of teams that win outright. USC enters Boulder with the strongest combination of Offensive Success Rate in the nation, ranking second in standard downs and 11th in passing downs.

Whether it's a run or pass, no defense has been able to put up any hurdles in the Trojans' path to scoring.

The toughest part of college football is the ability to play at full speed in consecutive weeks. Colorado was due for a deflation after three titanic games that not only produced three wins but generated the biggest cultural buzz on the sidelines.

The Buffaloes are much better than the preseason expectations set by the oddsmakers, but now Colorado is tasked with improving a number of deficient areas.

The Buffs have yet to produce a run game, calling a run on just 40% of snaps with running back Dylan Edwards making a bigger impact in the passing game. Colorado enters Week 5 ranked 111th in run grading, per PFF — a critical factor needed to keep the potent USC offense off the field.

The great news is an evolving passing game led by Shedeur Sanders. The Jackson State transfer has 11 touchdowns to just a single interception. More impressive is Sanders' work in a crowded pocket, throwing five touchdowns on 47 attempts with a minimal drop-off in adjusted completion percentage.

On the other side, Bo Nix and the Oregon offense annihilated Colorado's defense.

While the secondary was expected to regress in the absence of injured cornerback Travis Hunter, it was tackling that allowed the Ducks to fly. The Buffaloes put up their worst grade of the season in terms of tackling and pass rush on the season — an expected output against an Oregon offense that's best in the nation in offensive momentum killer.

Safeties Shilo Sanders and Trevor Woods are the two highest-graded coverage defenders on the team, and both are expected to be in the spotlight against the Trojans offense.

The handicap on Colorado has been spot-on through four weeks, as the Buffaloes have failed to produce a solid rushing attack while relying on a top-50 third-down conversion rate.

Sanders has been excellent when needed, as Colorado is the top-ranked offense nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate. The organized chaos will result in productive drives in Week 5, as USC is one of the worst defenses nationally in passing downs. The Trojans rank 101st in Success Rate and 122nd in defending explosives in these situations.

Those numbers are even more deflating for a USC team that ranks 130th in strength of schedule.

There's little doubt the Trojans are going to move the ball and score on offense, as Colorado ranks bottom-20 in defending the explosive play.

Head coach Deion Sanders may take a page out of Arizona State's playbook, fighting the Trojans with offensive explosives. The Sun Devils' anemic offense posted above the national average in explosive and methodical drive rates, generating eight passes over 15 yards from quarterback Drew Pyne.

The numbers are encouraging for a Colorado offense that lives behind schedule, as Arizona State still finished above the national average despite a rank of 97th in Passing Downs Success Rate.

The Action Network Power Ratings have Colorado comfortably covering the three scores, as this game has a wide variance thanks to penalties. Both teams rank bottom 10 nationally in penalty yards per game, but the more interesting trend is in opponent penalties. Colorado's opponents are flagged more than any other in the nation, averaging 10.5 penalties for 95 yards a game.

USC is the direct opposite, as opponents are receiving just four flags for an average of 34 yards in Trojan games.

With offensive explosives and minimal defense expected from both teams, third-down performance and penalties may be the deciding factor. Both of those categories belong to Colorado after one month of play.

There's something for everyone when the Southwest Classic between Texas A&M and Arkansas kicks from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Both the Aggies and Razorbacks enter Week 5 desperate for a conference victory.

The Hogs have taken two consecutive losses to BYU and LSU as the team has experienced the growing pains of a heavy transfer portal class and new coordinators. Mental health is a heavy subject on the Hill this week, as head coach Sam Pittman deleted his social media and has spent ample time as a counselor for his players.

With the Razorbacks in a corner and desperate not to fall below .500, a win would be big for the team from Fayetteville.

The Aggies are also dealing with struggles in a different manner.

A nonconference loss to Miami cast a shadow entering SEC play, but an easy cover against Auburn corrected the win total, Now, an injury to the starting quarterback will have ramifications for Texas A&M in Arlington.

With all of that said for both squads, this will be the second consecutive season in which Bobby Petrino has called plays against the Razorbacks. Missouri State came to Fayetteville and held the lead entering the fourth quarter last season before late-game heroics sealed the victory for the Hogs.

This game will have everything on both sides of the ball, but most importantly, each team is desperate for an SEC victory. If history is any indication, the Southwest Classic will be filled with Havoc and lead changes.

The biggest news from the Aggies' victory over Auburn was the loss of quarterback Conner Weigman to injury. The sophomore suffered what was thought to be an ankle sprain, but further tests indicated a foot fracture that will cost Weigman the season.

Max Johnson might be the most prepared backup quarterback in the nation after completing two touchdowns against Auburn.

There shouldn't be any kind of drop on the side or total in the market with the change at quarterback. Johnson has more than 4,600 career passing yards and has faced the Razorbacks each of the past two seasons.

The significant improvement in Weigman's turnover-worthy play numbers should translate to Johnson's game thanks to the Aggies' offensive coordinator.

The hire of Petrino is paying dividends for a Texas A&M team that's top-30 in Quality Drives, Finishing Drives and third-down conversions. Evan Stewart, Ainias Smith and Jahdae Walker all average more than two yards per route run, giving the Aggies a needed boost in air explosives.

If there was a culprit in the loss to Miami, the defense would be on the hook.

Defensive coordinator DJ Durkin has produced the third-best unit in terms of Havoc, led by 34 tackles for loss and 20 pass breakups. The overall numbers show a defense that stops the chains and prevents touchdowns in scoring position, but a lack of stops on explosive plays has been the biggest issue for the Aggies defense.

Miami created explosives in passing downs in Week 2 against Texas A&M, averaging 12.5 yards per play while tripling the national average in explosive drives.

The Razorbacks entered Baton Rouge on Saturday night looking to rectify a nonconference loss to BYU.

Coordinator Dan Enos finally hit a groove with the offense, exceeding the national average in Success Rate in rush and pass attempts. The Hogs ended 20% above the national average in Success Rate in passing downs, averaging 10.2 yards per play.

Quarterback KJ Jefferson found his new favorite target in freshman tight end Luke Hasz.

The Arkansas offense received 78 yards on the ground from Rashod Dubinion, but the big news will come later in the week.

Star running back Raheim "Rocket" Sanders is taking snaps with the first team after missing two games with a knee injury. The junior logged over 1,400 yards last season and has a career average of over 3.1 yards after contact.

A change in defensive philosophy came with the hire of coordinator Travis Williams, who brought an aggressive Havoc-minded style compared to the previous max-protect scheme from Barry Odom.

The results are mixed, as Arkansas ranks top-30 in Success Rate and Havoc but has allowed chunk plays to opposing offenses. Arkansas ranks 87th in Defensive Quality Drives, with bottom-20 numbers in allowing explosives in passing downs.

Linebacker Jaheim Thomas leads the Hogs in tackles and pressures but must shore up a team-leading eight missed tackles.

The Aggies and Razorbacks are mirror images of each other in terms of defense. Both teams have played an identical strength of schedule while fielding poor ranks in allowing the big play and in coverage grading.

Arkansas sits outside the top 100 in passing plays over 20 yards allowed, while Texas A&M ranks 110th in allowing explosives in passing downs.

The Hogs have consistent issues stopping the chains and play in passing downs at the 15th-highest rate with a rank of 87th in Defensive Quality Drives.

Even with the change from Weigman to Johnson, the Aggies are expected to get the ball downfield if the offensive line can improve on a pass-blocking rank of 100th.

The Aggies defense will put up a stiff test against Sanders if healthy, but the back end of the defense is catching Arkansas after its most successful game from a passing perspective. Both Hasz and Andrew Armstrong caught 12 of their 13 targets from Jefferson, an advantage the Hogs are expected to test against A&M's secondary.

The Action Network Power Ratings project Texas A&M -7 with a total of 58.

There's a case to be made for this game to go over the total with Petrino's track record and the fact that both defenses struggle to contain chunk plays.

The Aggies couldn't stop Miami from creating explosive plays in a loss, while the Hogs allowed LSU to rack up 75% of available yards and 13 explosive plays.

This game will not be methodical, but explosives and Havoc will provide the points needed to cash an over ticket.

The "Deep South's Oldest Rivalry" between Georgia and Auburn is set for the 128th edition dating back to 1892.

In a series that's nearly as old as the typewriter, the Bulldogs have won six straight and lead the series, 63-56-8.

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart will take his team on the road for the first time this season after allowing 35 points over the past two games to UAB and South Carolina.

The coach was complimentary of Jordan-Hare Stadium, as the hostile environment presents a challenge for Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck, who has never made a start away from Athens.

Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze was disappointed in his team's execution through the air in a loss against Texas A&M. With a quarterback battle taking place since the summer, execution from under center has not been up to SEC level.

Now, the two-time defending national champion is coming to town, and the indecisiveness at quarterback will lead up to kickoff.

There's plenty of intrigue despite the large point spread associated with the game.

Georgia is under new management from a coordinator and quarterback perspective, and the defense has yet to control the line of scrimmage and red zone like previous Bulldog teams.

For Auburn, the search for a mistake-free offense continues as the toughest defense on the schedule comes to town.

Georgia detractors are sure to point to a strength of schedule that dips outside the top 100, but Beck has been fantastic under center to this point. The fourth-year quarterback has a 6:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, averaging less than 1% for a turnover-worthy play rate.

Beck has been efficient in 12 attempts downfield, completing half of the passes in pressured pockets.

The Bulldogs' ground attack is sure to be the focus against Auburn, as four different rushers have logged an explosive play. Daijun Edwards leads the pack with 15 first downs, but Kendall Milton has been the most explosive, averaging four yards after contact.

Georgia's defense has yet to be tested despite already picking up an SEC victory over South Carolina. UGA ranks 123rd in Defensive Standard Downs Rate, meaning almost every snap comes against an opponent that's behind schedule.

A mid-FBS grade in pass rush is to be expected, as the Bulldogs rarely send more than four defenders to create pressure.

While Georgia's analytics are there against the pass, Auburn might have some success in a couple of areas. The Bulldogs rank 45th in Line Yards, as opposing rushing attacks have had spurts of success.

Through Week 4, Georgia has allowed 14 opponent drives to cross the 40-yard line into scoring position. Opponents have averaged 3.2 points per trip, which is just below the national average but nowhere near the Bulldogs' standard.

With a limited sample of just eight opponent red-zone trips, six have resulted in a touchdown.

Auburn's inefficiencies at quarterback continued at College Station, prompting Freeze to get snaps for sophomore third-stringer Holden Geriner.

The numbers have been tepid for Robby Ashford and Payton Thorne, with the latter attempting to move the offense through the air.

Thorne hasn't been as bad as the film indicates, generating a turnover-worthy play rate that's better than his career average. Ashford does the majority of damage on the ground, rushing for all four of his touchdowns against UMass and Samford.

While the quarterbacks get the attention, it's the play of the offensive line that has hindered Auburn.

The offensive line has allowed a whopping 29 tackles for loss and a pressure rate outside the top 100. Auburn ranks 115th in Havoc Allowed with continued issues at the line of scrimmage and in holding onto the football.

Explosiveness eludes Thorne in the passing game, and there's a direct correlation to pressure. No player with a minimum of 75 dropbacks has a higher pressure-to-sack ratio than Thorne, as his mark of 52.4% is well beyond the next passer, Old Dominion's Grant Wilson, at 38.5%.

There's hope on the defensive side of the ball, which has generated one of the best ranks nationally against the pass. The Tigers rank top-10 defensively in Passing Success, coverage grading and limiting pass explosives.

Both Kayin Lee and DJ James rank top-20 in individual cornerback grading, totaling six forced incompletions.

However, Auburn is open for attack on the ground, with mid-FBS ranks in Line Yards and Stuff Rate. Texas A&M exposed this element in Week 4, averaging 7.1 yards per play in rushing attempts.

Georgia has not looked the part of a two-time defending national champion thus far.

The offense struggled to come back from a 14-3 deficit against South Carolina, needing almost every possession in the second half to beat the Gamecocks by two scores. The defense is a shade of the national title team that limited TCU to just one score, allowing 35 points the past two weeks.

The Bulldogs have not played a murderer's row to this point, but the case could be made that history is repeating itself. Both Kent State and Missouri put up consecutive 22-point performances last season before Georgia ripped through the remaining regular-season schedule.

The scoring splits by quarter tell another story. Georgia is averaging just a +2.5-point scoring differential in the first quarter versus +10.3 and +14 in the second and third quarters.

With a new quarterback and offensive coordinator, there are signs that scripted drives are unsuccessful. Once in-game adjustments are made on both sides of the ball, the Bulldogs have dominated. With a Middle 8 ranking in the top 20, mid-second quarter is generally a good time to pace a live wager on Georgia.

Auburn should have limited success running the ball with running back Jarquez Hunter with Ashford under center.

With the Tigers' best defensive attribute coming in the form of two shutdown cornerbacks, the ground game will be the best chance of success for the Georgia offense.

Each team struggles to put points on the board in the first quarter of games, so the first-quarter and first-half totals are in scope for an under.

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