Welcome to Week 10.
Our staff of college football experts has spent the week breaking down another monster slate, and we've compiled our favorite wagers for the noon window below.
Read on for our college football picks and NCAAF best bets for Week 10's noon slate on Saturday, Nov. 1.
College Football Picks, Best Bets for Saturday's Noon Games
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's noon slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
 | Noon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Vanderbilt vs Texas Pick
The question remains: Is any defense capable of shutting down Diego Pavia in his quest for the Heisman Trophy and a Vanderbilt postseason run?
Texas' nickel defense has destroyed offenses that run man and counter concepts, two of Vanderbilt's most-used packages. Where the Commodores will have success is with inside zone plays, where the Longhorns' Success Rate falls to 44%.
More importantly, Pavia has only three rushing attempts off zone this season, with 20 going to Alexander. The Longhorns will surely key off Pavia in wildcat formation, leaving Vanderbilt to depend on Young and Alexander.
Texas should deny extra yardage to any rusher, as the Longhorns rank ninth in broken tackles allowed.
The unknown comes from a Texas offense that hasn't played at home since Sept. 20 against Sam Houston. Arch Manning or Matthew Caldwell will have advantages with slot DeAndre Moore Jr. and wideout Ryan Wingo.
The Vanderbilt 2-4-5 defense has been shredded at the second level, ranking 89th nationally in creating contested catches. Manning has found explosives against quarters coverage on out routes.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Texas to be favored by 5.5 points if Manning were to clear concussion protocol. Without the starter, the Longhorns would be at the current market number with Caldwell.
The better bet is on a Texas defense that's expected to lock down Pavia on man and counter concepts, leaving the Commodores to run inside zone with Alexander.
The Vanderbilt quarterback has also seen a dip in his yards per rush attempt and yards after first contact over the past four games.
Check out Collin's entire Vandy-Texas preview and more bets in his Week 10 Card:
Pick: Vanderbilt TT Under 21.5 (-112, FanDuel) | Diego Pavia Under 47.5 Rush Yards (-115, bet365)
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Miami vs SMU Pick
By Stuckey
SMU has had a very disappointing season to date, especially in comparison to last year's magical run to the College Football Playoff. The Mustangs already have three losses — although they did hold fourth-quarter leads in each.
The offense looked awful last week at Wake Forest, but I do believe part of that had to do with the spot.
That game came in between a victory over Clemson and this Saturday's showdown with Miami. They just weren't ready to play a noon kick against a feisty Demon Deacon bunch coming off a bye.
After having their 20-game conference win streak end, I expect a much sharper effort. After all, they still remain in the thick of the ACC race with a 3-1 league record.
From a matchup perspective, Miami likely won't have much success running the ball on an elite SMU front that has allowed a minuscule 2.7 yards per attempt.
That will put the onus on Carson Beck, who has historically struggled mightily on the road and when under pressure — both of which could become an issue against this SMU defense that thrives in the Havoc department.
Beck is usually kept clean behind his elite pass-protecting offensive line, but Louisville's similarly elite defensive line bothered him enough to throw four interceptions.
Over the past three seasons, Beck has had only nine Big-Time Throws to 20 Turnover-Worthy Plays when under pressure. Last year at Georgia, he threw for 25 touchdowns to just five interceptions at home compared to a 3:7 ratio on the road, while averaging two yards fewer per attempt and double the sack rate.
Additionally, there's a chance Miami is a bit overrated in the market due to how its schedule has played out so far. It benefited from seeing CJ Carr in his first-ever start (on the road) with a Notre Dame defense that had yet to find its way.
It also faced South Florida in one of the best situational spots of the year, while Florida was an absolute mess at the time, with a less than 100% DJ Lagway. This will also mark the first time all year that the Hurricanes leave their home state.
So, what are my concerns? The SMU pass defense has been a bit vulnerable in coverage, and Malachi Toney is capable of scoring any time he touches the ball.
The Mustangs should get a few defensive reinforcements (including two key starters) back in the lineup this week. They've also been vulnerable against quarterback scrambles, which isn't a worry against Beck.
Additionally, Kevin Jennings also really struggles under pressure, which could become an issue against the menacing Miami defensive end duo of Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain, especially since the Mustangs have only one reliable tackle in pass protection.
Jennings will need to be much sharper than he was last week.
SMU doesn't really try to run the ball, which actually works in its favor in this particular matchup since the Hurricanes feature one of the nation's best run-stopping units.
While the secondary is exponentially better than last year's group, that's still Miami's weak link defensively. If Jennings is on, SMU can take advantage. If not, it will lead to too many quick three-and-outs that could eventually become too much to overcome.
It's interesting to note that, when adjusted for home-field advantage and opponent, these two teams rank very similarly on an Adjusted EPA Per Play basis.
With that said, I thought the opening line of around 10 was pretty fair, so I was happy to jump in after the early move pushed this out to 12.5.
I think this is an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Mustangs against a Miami team that has historically come out flat in these spots under head coach Mario Cristobal.
And I do expect this staff (with countless ties to Miami) to have a near-perfect opening script that could catch Miami off guard, as we saw against Louisville.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 10 Situational Spots here:
Pick: SMU +11.5 or Better
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Navy vs North Texas Pick
By Joshua Nunn
The concern for Navy is that the Mids allow yards and points through the air in bunches. They’ve allowed over 450 yards and 30 points in each of the past three weeks. They were lucky to beat Temple a few weeks back, and they struggled with Tulsa for three quarters before pulling away.
North Texas has an elite offense. I’m super impressed with quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who should feast against Navy’s secondary, which ranks 113th nationally in Pass Explosiveness allowed, 106th in EPA per Pass allowed, and 128th in Early Downs Explosiveness allowed.
The Mean Green will score on Saturday, but can they stop Navy’s offense?
I don’t think so. Army wore down North Texas’ front a few weeks back, as the Mean Green were unable to stop any of the triple-option elements (fullback dive, quarterback follow, sweep, etc.).
Over the past five weeks, North Texas has allowed 438 yards and 33 points per game.
Navy is an excellent third-down and red-zone offense. The Mids rank sixth nationally in Success Rate and fifth in EPA per Play.
I’m a little hesitant about the full-game Over, but I fully expect Navy to eclipse four touchdowns in this game.
The Mids have scored at least 28 points in all but one game this season. They should match North Texas score for score. If they have the lead in the fourth quarter, it’s likely because they’ve already scored 30 points. If they fall behind early, they’ll have to increase the tempo, which they’re happy to do.
Navy keeps this game tight by scoring efficiently.
Check out the entire Big Bets on Campus Group of 5 Deep Dive episode here:
Pick: Navy TT Over 28.5 (-120, DraftKings)
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UCF vs Baylor Player Prop Pick
By Doug Ziefel
Jaden Nixon is the backup running back for the UCF Golden Knights and has found a way to make his presence felt despite a very limited opportunity.
Nixon has exceeded this total in three of seven games, and two of those over have been 100-plus yard performances.
Although on an average, it is just 4.6 attempts per game, going over this mark is an outlier.
He's benefited greatly from big runs, averaging 11.1 yards per carry this season.
But even in a good matchup, it's sharp to fade his volatility.
Pick: Jaden Nixon Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115, bet365)
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Duke vs Clemson Pick
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Mature Market Moves is a college football system that capitalizes on the influence of sharp money when it differs meaningfully from public betting patterns.
In the regular season, when the spread falls between 1 and 6 points, these games are often competitive and decided by narrow margins, making line efficiency critical.
By isolating matchups where the percentage of money wagered is significantly higher than the percentage of tickets, the system highlights situations where larger, more informed bets are backing one side while casual bettors are spread differently.
Limiting the sample to games five and later ensures teams have established trends and reliable data to target sharper action.
This combination of tight spreads, mature markets, and a clear split between sharp money and public opinion creates an edge in which following the money side outperforms expectations.
Per the Action App, Duke is currently generating 54% of the betting tickets but over 90% of the betting handle.
I'm willing to back the Blue Devils with those splits.
I haven't believed in the Tigers since the preseason. They've done nothing but unimpress, including last week's 11-point home loss to SMU. They can't run the ball, and their defense is simply mediocre.
Duke is only 4-3, but the Devils have won three of four ACC games, and they rank 20th nationally in Net Success Rate (+7.9%). I think they're still a tad undervalued. I wouldn't be surprised if Darian Mensah and Co. pulled off the outright upset — the Tulane transfer quarterback has been near perfect in league play, completing 73% of his passes for 1,175 yards at nine YPA with nine touchdowns to no interceptions (and seven Big Time Throws to one Turnover Worthy Play).
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Pick: Duke +3.5 (-110, bet365)
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Breese's Full Action App Card
Need more picks for Saturday? It's always wise to see what our guy Breese is betting on each week!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the free award-winning Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all of your favorite experts:
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