Let's close Week 10 with a bang.
Oklahoma visits Tennessee in a massive SEC battle, Florida State hosts Wake Forest in a big ACC battle, while San Diego State hosts Wyoming in the Aztecs' quest for Mountain West supremacy.
Also, we have a late-night Hawaii game to bet on.
Let's dive into our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Week 10's night slate.
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College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Pick
The most significant handicap in the game comes on a Sooners defense that's regressing in tackling fundamentals.
Tennessee's passing offense thrives under head coach Josh Heupel's wide-split stretch-spread, producing a massive EPA on hitch routes. The Sooners have been fantastic against the hitch, averaging a 60% Success Rate against it.
Oklahoma ranks sixth nationally in contested catch rate, one of the numbers that has the Sooners' defense sitting at second in Havoc. Tennessee ranks just 83rd in creating missed tackles, a number that indicates the Oklahoma defense should return to form.
The Volunteers' defense must improve at defending inside zone, a run concept that will be utilized by John Mateer and running back Tory Blaylock.
While neither of the Sooners' top rushers has produced many yards after contact, both Blaylock and Mateer have created 21 explosive runs.
Tennessee will struggle to stop the pair at the line of scrimmage, and when it comes to limiting explosives, ranking 112th nationally in Rush EPA allowed.
Read Collin's full Oklahoma-Tennessee breakdown and more bets in the entire edition of his Week 10 card.
Pick: Oklahoma +3 (-120, bet365)
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Wake Forest vs. Florida State Pick
By Stuckey
Last week, I said that Wake Forest might have the most underrated defense in college football.
The Deacs certainly looked the part in holding SMU to 12 points. Following that victory, they now rank among the top 10 nationally when adjusted for opponent.
Do I think they're a top-10 defense? Absolutely not. But this is a feisty bunch.
However, this is a very tough spot for the Demon Deacons following that upset win against a Florida State team coming off a bye following four straight losses.
As long as the Noles don't quit on the season and Tommy Castellanos suits up at quarterback (trending to play, per Mike Norvell), I like them at anything under 10.
Not only has Florida State played the much more difficult schedule, but it's also been snakebit in several close losses.
The Noles still boast a very sturdy run defense that has held opponents to 3.3 yards per rush, which should completely neuter this weak Wake Forest offense that has used two quarterbacks in recent weeks.
The Deacs need to get running back Demond Claiborne going on the ground to have any shot at sustaining drives, but I'm not sure they'll have success doing so in this matchup.
The Demon Deacons are also one of the worst teams in the country in the red zone when they actually get down inside the 20. For the season, Wake's 72% red-zone scoring percentage ranks 129th in FBS. It has scored only nine touchdowns on 25 trips inside the 20 (36%); only Nevada and UMass have a lower touchdown rate.
Additionally, FSU will get starting cornerback Ja'Bril Rawls back from injury, which will have a ripple effect on the rest of a struggling secondary that Wake isn't really built to exploit, regardless.
Ultimately, I believe Florida State has the perfect offensive scheme to attack this Wake Forest defense. And if Florida State gets a lead, there's really not a lot of recourse for this Wake Forest offense to play from behind, while the Seminoles can stick with the ground game, limiting the heavy pressure Wake can generate when it knows teams have to pass.
Despite the more challenging schedule, Florida State still has an enormous edge in Net Success Rate, available yards gained percentage, and quality drive ratio.
Assuming FSU still cares, this is a prime spot to buy the dip on the Noles, while selling high on Wake.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 10 Situational Spots here:
Pick: Florida State -9.5 or Better
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Wyoming vs. San Diego State Pick
Why is nobody talking about San Diego State?
The Aztecs are 6-1 and have a legitimate chance to reach the College Football Playoffs as the Group of 5 representative. They already have a dominant win against an ACC team, crushing Cal 34-0.
Not only have the Aztecs rattled off five straight wins, but they are absolutely throttling teams. San Diego State has won its six games by an average margin of 26.2 points per game.
The recipe for San Diego State is very simple, but very effective. The Aztecs run the ball down the team's throat with Lucky Sutton, who is averaging 5.3 yards per play on the ground and 94.6 yards per game. Byron Cardwell and Christian Washington mix in as well and are both effective.
When opposing defenses key in on the run, quarterback Jayden Denegal hits an explosive pass over the top. The Aztecs rank 11th nationally in Pass Explosiveness.
San Diego State plays tremendous defense and looks like some of the old Aztecs teams we had gotten used to seeing. They rank in the top 20 in Success Rate allowed and are one of the best in the country at defending the pass. San Diego State ranks 15th nationally in passes broken up. Cornerback Chris Johnson is one of the best in the nation, with the nation's best PFF Coverage grade.
Johnson, along with Bryce Phillips on the other side, and Dalesean Staley and Dwayne McDougle at safety, should have no problem with Kaden Anderson and this Wyoming passing attack. The Cowboys are not explosive at all and do not have the weapons to beat this secondary.
San Diego State has the second-best coverage grade in the entire country and will blanket the Cowboys' offense.
Wyoming struggled to score 21 points against a putrid Air Force defense. Now, the Cowboys will face an Aztecs defense that ranks first in the Mountain West in both run defense and pass defense. San Diego State is allowing just 2.7 yards per carry and has surrendered just two rushing touchdowns all season. Only Ohio State has allowed fewer.
Wyoming has yet to beat a team with a winning record. The Cowboys' three FBS wins have come against teams with a combined record of 7-17. San Diego State has a dominant defense and an explosive offense that Wyoming will have no answers for.
The Aztecs are blowing the doors off everybody they play, and Saturday should be no different.
Check out Ianniello's full Week 10 Group of 5 card here:
Pick: San Diego State -12 or Better
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Wake Forest vs. Florida State Player Prop Pick
By Doug Ziefel
Last week's matchup against SMU marked just the second time Wake Forest running back Demond Claiborne did not score this season.
However, it did not come from a lack of trying, as he had a season-high eight red-zone rush attempts.
Claiborne is bound to find paydirt once again this week as the Seminoles are vulnerable in the red zone. Florida State ranks 103rd nationally in opponent red-zone scoring rate, and Claiborne has scored in 71% of games this season.
Jump on this as it's rare we see a high-volume back at this good a price.
Pick: Demond Claiborne Anytime Touchdown (-115, Hard Rock)
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Hawaii vs. San Jose State
This game triggered one of our Action PRO Systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Short Road Dogs is a college football system that focuses on underdogs playing away from home in the regular season when the moneyline falls in a competitive range that signals a realistic chance to win outright.
These teams are visitors, facing manageable matchups, with closing totals between 41 and 71, suggesting balanced scoring potential rather than extreme results.
Line movement on the total that stays within a narrow window from open to close reflects market stability and avoids heavy adjustments that could skew value.
By isolating games where the underdog is not severely overmatched but still priced attractively, the system captures overlooked spots where road teams can pull off wins more often than the odds imply, creating steady long-term value on the moneyline.
I’m in on backing the Bows.
I think some of their season-long offensive numbers are deflated from Miach Alejado’s early-season injury. He looks healthy now, completing 68% of his passes for 1,171 yards, nine scores, and only two interceptions at 8.4 yards per attempt over the past three weeks — all Hawaii victories.
The Bows are quietly 6-2 on the season, including 3-1 in conference play.
While the offense is coming together (119 points over the past three games), the defense has been relatively good all season, specifically against the pass (30th nationally in EPA per Dropback allowed).
That coverage unit will be critical against a San Jose State offense that leads the nation in Pass Play Rate (65%).
At the same time, Hawaii ranks second nationally in Pass Play Rate (63%), but will be facing a San Jose State defense that ranks 115th nationally in EPA per Dropback allowed.
Also, Hawaii had a bye week last week, while San Jose State lost a tough one on the road to Utah State. The Bows will be the more well-rested squad on Saturday night.
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Pick: Hawaii ML (+100, bet365)
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