Week 10 rolls on with a loaded afternoon slate.
Florida hosts Georgia in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, while Maryland hosts the red-hot Hoosiers.
Read on for picks on those games and more in our college football best bets and Week 10 NCAAF picks for Saturday afternoon.
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College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
 | Afternoon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Georgia vs. Florida Pick
Billy Gonzales made it clear that the Florida offense's speed would increase with the departure of head coach Billy Napier. Specific comments were made about pre-snap activities and about plays that entered the huddle late.
Expect Florida's offense to push the clock from the start, focusing on getting the ball to Eugene Wilson III and Vernell Brown III in the passing game.
Running back Jadan Baugh comes off a career high of 150 rushing yards against Mississippi State and is sure to be a part of the new fast tempo.
Georgia has a long history of slow starts over the past two seasons, often fetching a better number in live wagering before the Middle 8.
Plenty of interim coaches love trick plays and fourth-down attempts, making the Gators a first-quarter play until the Bulldogs' staff adjusts.
With an expected increase in possessions for the game, the total points are also in play.
Our Action Network projections target 52 for the whole game, but until the Bulldogs' defensive staff makes adjustments, look for Lagway to push the ball at a quicker pace than the season-long 28.7 seconds per play.
Read Collin's entire Georgia-Florida breakdown and more wagers in his Week 10 Card:
Pick: 1H Over 24.5 (-110, bet365) | Florida 1Q +2.5 or Better
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Indiana vs. Maryland Pick
By Stuckey
I'll be the idiot to get in front of this Curt Cignetti train since I do like the spot and project this spread under three touchdowns.
Look, I'm a full-on believer of this Hoosiers squad. I have them power-rated as the No. 2 team in the country, trailing only Ohio State.
However, at this price range, based on the past two closing spreads against UCLA and Michigan State (where IU went 1-1 ATS), we are essentially calling Maryland equal to UCLA and Michigan State.
Not in my book.
I'm aware that Maryland closed as an underdog slightly above a field goal on the road at UCLA, but that cross-country spot has been worth about 4.5-5 points.
Plus, unlike those two teams, Maryland actually has a very stout defense that ranks in the top 25 nationally when adjusted for opponent. It really hit on the freshmen and transfers on that side of the ball.
The Terps have certainly been opportunistic on turnovers. That likely isn't sustainable, but they can generate pressure at an elite level, which you need to do to have any shot of slowing down Fernando Mendoza and this Indiana machine.
Keep an eye on edge Zahir Mathis, who I personally love watching.
The Maryland offense isn't great by any stretch of the imagination. It simply can't run the ball, but true freshman quarterback Malik Washington is taking care of the ball and not taking any sacks behind a vastly improved offensive line.
Both of those factors (and Maryland's solid special teams play) are critical when backing a big dog. And as usual in College Park, Washington has dangerous weapons at wide receiver to work with.
From a situational standpoint, Maryland is coming off a bye week, which I believe has more value for a team with a pair of new coordinators (who I think are both significant upgrades) and a roster with severe turnover.
The extra prep time should also really benefit a true freshman signal-caller.
Meanwhile, Indiana is fresh off its second 50-plus point win over a conference opponent, with its last real obstacle to a perfect regular season on deck at Penn State (if you still want to call it that).
Cignetti's team will likely be entirely focused, but the Hoosiers may come out a bit flat.
Maryland has three losses on the year, but led in the fourth quarter of each. The Terps are just a few plays away from coming into this game at 7-0, in which case this line certainly wouldn't be sitting above three touchdowns.
I think their defense can hold this to 21 or less. Keep in mind, they did play the Hoosiers tough in Bloomington last year.
Lastly, Maryland was down a handful of defensive starters in the second half (and a key edge rusher for the entire game) against UCLA. At full strength, it pulls that game out.
I'm expecting the Terps to be closer to full strength here, but it's worth mentioning that stud safety Jalen Huskey will miss the first half due to targeting.
Hopefully, Cignetti doesn't have the spread on his mind if it's teetering around the number late. I may look dumb here, but it won't be the first nor last time.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 10 Situational Spots here:
Pick: Maryland +21.5 or Better
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New Mexico vs. UNLV Pick
We always need to be careful using the F word in today’s climate… but UNLV is a Fraud.
The Rebels have beaten FCS Idaho State (barely), winless Sam Houston, the corpse of UCLA, Miami Ohio (barely, after its quarterback got hurt), Wyoming, and barely beat an Air Force team with the worst defense in the country.
Last week, against Boise State — the second team UNLV has played with a winning record — the Rebels got blown out by more than three touchdowns.
In its seven games this year, UNLV has been outgained in five of them. They have gotten extremely lucky in the turnover department, sitting third nationally in turnover margin. The Rebels have a good offense led by quarterback Anthony Colandrea and running back Jai’Den Thomas, but the defense is atrocious.
UNLV ranks 115th nationally in Success Rate allowed. The Rebels allow way too many big plays and are one of the worst tackling teams in the nation. They have basically been relying exclusively on forcing turnovers to get stops.
Now, the concern for this game is that New Mexico turns the ball over as much as anybody.
Jack Layne has eight interceptions on the season, but they all came in just three games. He has kept a clean sheet in the last two games; he hasn’t even had a turnover-worthy play. In fact, Layne hasn’t had a turnover-worthy play in six of his eight games this season. He really just had two horrible games. He has also gotten a bit unlucky with more interceptions than turnover-worthy plays this year.
New Mexico has a three-headed rushing attack led by Scottre Humphrey, along with Damon Bankston and DJ McKinney. The Lobos also have a terrific tight end in Dorian Thomas.
When New Mexico runs the ball well, it wins. In five wins this season, the Lobos averaged 216 rushing yards. In the three losses, they managed just 58.3 yards per game on the ground.
Jackson Eck’s team should have no problem running the ball against this Rebels defense that has allowed 204.7 yards per game on the ground, 129th in the country.
UNLV has gotten extremely lucky to start 6-1, and it’s going to catch up to them eventually. UNLV ranks fourth in the country in fumble recovery percentage, and New Mexico ranks 129th.
Eventually, the oblong ball is going to bounce the other way for both of these teams.
Check out Ianniello's whole Group of 5 card for Week 10 here:
Pick: New Mexico +4 or Better
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Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan Pick
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Small Dog in Small Game is a college football system built around the idea that underdogs in lower-profile matchups can be undervalued when attention and betting volume are limited.
These games typically kick off in the afternoon or evening window and occur early in the season, within the first nine contests, when teams are still developing identities. The underdog in this range is small to moderate, with spreads between 2 and 11.5 points, and often comes into the game with little momentum, having won or lost only a game or two in a short streak.
Because betting activity on these contests is lower than the daily average, the market is less efficient, and lines move very little from open to close, creating opportunities in which perception has more influence than actual performance.
When public money leans toward the favorite but not overwhelmingly, the small dog benefits from value created by these market dynamics and covers more often than expected.
I’m terrified of fading Western Michigan, which is likely the best defense in the MAC — the Broncos rank 11th nationally in EPA per Play allowed and have allowed only 42 points across four conference games.
But the Broncos are an elite pass defense that prevents explosives above all else — they keep everything in front of them.
They’re more of a middling run defense, ranking outside the top 50 nationally in Defensive Line Yards and outside the top 75 in Rush Success Rate allowed.
That’s huge for Central Michigan, which ranks fifth nationally in Rush Play Rate (70%). The Chips aren’t an efficient rush offense, but they run the ball like crazy to set up play-action. 56% of Joe Labas’ dropbacks are play-action concepts, and he completes 78% of those passes while averaging 10 yards per attempt — it’s likely the main reason that the Broncos rank in the top 40 nationally in EPA per Pass.
The Chips can run the ball well enough and complete enough play-action passes to keep this game close for 60 minutes. Especially given that Western Michigan’s offense is horrific (116th nationally in EPA per Play).
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Pick: Central Michigan +5.5 (-110, bet365)
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Duck's Full Action App Card
Need more picks for Saturday's slate? It's always wise to see what our guy Duck is betting on each week!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the free award-winning Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all of your favorite experts:
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