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After a nice appetizer on Thursday and Friday, Saturday's Week 4 college football slate is finally upon us.
What makes today's slate even more attractive is the number of ranked matchups on the docket, and it all starts with No. 1 Texas vs. No. 14 Tennessee in the noon window.
But that's not all. Our college football staff came through with plenty of picks to kick off your college football Saturday.
With that said, let's take a look at our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the Week 4 noon games on Saturday, September 26.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
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College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's slate of noon games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
 | 12 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texas vs Pick Tennessee
Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon has a pair of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays, but he's also provided more than 50 rushing yards on designed calls.
As for the passing game in head coach Heupel's wide split veer-and-shoot, Brandon has dominated teams using Cover 3 and quarters from a Success Rate standpoint.
Against Cover 3, Brandon has posted nearly a half-point of EPA per attempt with a 66% Success Rate. Texas ranks just 71st in opponent pass explosives allowed and is averaging a negative EPA in its primary look of Cover 3.
Despite being undefeated and ranked as the top team in the country, Texas quarterback Arch Manning doesn't have an impressive analytical sheet. The senior has five big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays this season.
What's more interesting is that all three of the mistakes have come against all three opponents.
The wide receiver unit hasn't helped the effort, already recording nine drops this season, up from an 8% drop rate to 13.2% since last season.
Cam Coleman is the only starting receiver without a drop, but his target share is on track to be the lowest of his career, dating back to his two seasons at Auburn.
A play on Tennessee can't be based solely on the analytics because of its easy schedule. The Volunteers have done everything needed in those three victories, but the primary handicap is a Texas team with numerous potholes in the stat sheet.
Tennessee has been stellar defending the pass, creating Havoc and generating a pass rush so far.
All of those areas should be problematic for a Texas offense that has yet to find a productive flow. Without the ability to create chunk yardage on rushing attempts, the Volunteers are sure to double Coleman and pressure Manning.
Look for Tennessee running back DeSean Bishop to ground-and-pound a Texas defensive front that's outside the top 40 in numerous ground-based analytics.
On the Longhorns' defense, keep tabs on Colin Simmons' health leading up to the game, as pressure against a freshman quarterback in Brandon is crucial.
Neyland Stadium will be one of the toughest places Texas will play all season, especially when it comes to getting the quarterback and receivers on the same page.
Check out Collin Wilson's full Week 4 betting card here:
Pick: Tennessee +5.5
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Wake Forest vs Louisville Pick
By Stuckey
I have had this spot circled for quite a while, but obviously things are a little murkier with Gio Lopez getting a questionable tag on the first availability report. He has since been upgraded to probable, which is a positive for this bet.
If he can't go, this bet is likely toast since the drop-off to backup freshman Steele Pizzella is significant.
Unfortunately, I'm already locked in at +13 even though 13.5s are currently available. Let's just hope Lopez isn't too compromised since his legs are a vital part of the offense.
Lopez has been outstanding running the show so far, which shouldn't be too surprising since he thrived under offensive coordinator Rob Ezell at South Alabama a couple of seasons ago. He knows the scheme, and it appears to be a perfect marriage, which makes his availability even more crucial.
If not for a couple of killer penalties on special teams and fourth-down misses, the Demon Deacons could have had a shot at upsetting Miami last week in what turned out to be a very easy cover.
Wake does benefit from an extra day of rest and prep since it last played on Friday night, while Louisville has to be a bit gassed after huge bouts vs. Ole Miss and SMU over a 13-day span with an FCS Friday night matchup squeezed in between.
I won't be shocked if the Cardinals come out a little bit flat for an early kick following a victory in their toughest remaining game on the schedule (and most important for the ACC race).
Plus, they do enter this game a bit beat up across the board following such a grueling schedule. They will particularly miss Antonio Watts on the defensive end.
Assuming Lopez is healthy, Wake's underrated offense can move the ball in a multitude of ways here. Keep an eye on the human first down, Carlos Hernandez.
On the other side of the ball, the Demon Deacons will play an abundance of zone to limit explosives (as they did vs. Miami) that Louisville has hit at a high rate on this season.
They will make the Cardinals drive the field and execute without making costly errors, becoming an issue for one of the five-most penalized teams in the country.
Louisville also still has major issues on special teams, so don't be surprised if we see a key blunder or two in the often-forgotten third phase, which arguably cost it a win against Ole Miss in the opener.
While the Louisville running game should churn, it will at least keep the clock moving and condense the game.
For what it's worth, Jeff Brohm has gone just 12-22 ATS (35.3%) as a favorite of more than a touchdown vs. FBS competition during his tenures at Purdue and Louisville.
Check out all nine of Stuckey's Week 4 situational spots here:
Pick: Wake Forest +13 or Better
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Illinois vs Ohio State Pick
By Jordan Vanek
Illinois switched to a 3-3-5 defensive structure this season, and its linebackers have struggled with missed tackles, resulting in a significant amount of yards after contact allowed.
Per Sports Info Solutions, Illinois allowed 4.6 yards after contact against Duke and 3.0 against UAB.
Ohio State has only had one true test this season, and that came against Texas. In that matchup, Bo Jackson outsnapped the second running back 42-21 and handled 23 total touches.
Texas was able to limit his efficiency, but Illinois doesn’t have the bodies up front to replicate that performance.
Neither Duke nor UAB possesses a receiving threat like Jeremiah Smith, whose presence should prevent Illinois from consistently loading the box.
That should create lighter fronts and more opportunities for Jackson to take advantage of a defense that's struggled to tackle and limit yards after contact.
Check out all nine of Jordan Vanek's Week 4 Underdog picks here:
Pick: Ohio State RB Bo Jackson Higher Than 79.5 Rushing Yards
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Sam Houston vs Texas Tech Pick
By Bet Labs
Saturday's Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech college football matchup fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.
Called "Unfamiliar Blowout Overs," this is a college football system that identifies high scoring potential in nonconference games where mismatches often lead to inflated point totals.
During the regular season, when the home team is heavily favored by more than 30 points, the talent gap is wide enough that scoring can come quickly and often.
Nonconference opponents are less familiar with each other’s schemes, which reduces defensive preparation and increases the likelihood of big plays.
By focusing on games where the closing total is below 60, the system finds situations where expectations are modest despite the conditions that favor the offense.
In these contests, the stronger team can pile on points, while the underdog often contributes through late scoring in garbage time, pushing results over the total more often than anticipated.
We expect Texas Tech to put up its fair share of points before Sam Houston joins the points party late in the game.
Pick: Over 55.5
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Collin Wilson's Full Action Network App Betting Card
Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson has much, much more than his Texas vs. Tennessee pick.
Wilson has a number of picks logged in the Action Network app, so be sure to check out all of his picks after two big winning weeks in the college football world.
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