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Week 4 of the college football season rolls on.
Saturday's afternoon slate features a number of ranked matchups, including Ole Miss vs. Florida and Iowa vs. Michigan, as well as a crucial Group of 6 matchup between Boise State and Western Michigan.
With that said, let's take a look at our college football best bets and NCAAF predictions for the Week 4 afternoon games on Saturday, September 26.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
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College Football Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's slate of afternoon games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 5 p.m. | |
 | Afternoon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Notre Dame vs Purdue Pick
By Jordan Vanek
Last season, CJ Carr averaged 18 yards per attempt against Purdue, and the only reason he didn’t put up massive passing numbers was that Notre Dame ran for 254 yards and scored on a kick return.
Purdue also put up 23 points in the first half, and it wouldn’t shock me if it found success again and forced Notre Dame to keep scoring.
Carr hasn’t needed to throw a ton this season, but Notre Dame’s run game hasn’t been great, and I believe the Irish will start leaning more into his passing ability.
This is a great matchup for that to happen.
If I’m stacking Carr, Micah Gilbert and Jordan Faison are the two wide outs I want to pair with him.
Check out all nine of Jordan Vanek's Week 4 Underdog picks here:
Pick: Notre Dame QB CJ Carr Higher Than 245.5 Passing Yards
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Ole Miss vs Florida Pick
The biggest issue for Florida has been penalties, ranking 131st at 88.3 yards per game. Another issue has been controlling the line of scrimmage on defense, as it ranks 136th in Stuff Rate through three games.
The good news for the Gators is Ole Miss' lack of rush efficiency and explosiveness. With running back Kewan Lacy considered questionable with an injury, the Rebels will be at a disadvantage on the ground against the Gators.
Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will create highlights with receivers Deuce Alexander, Horatio Fields and Traylon Ray. The Gators' pass defense ranks 21st in PFF grading, sitting just inside the top 50 in EPA allowed.
Ole Miss may be one-dimensional on offense, but Chambliss has had success against Florida's preferred Cover 3 look.
The biggest edge comes in the Gators' offense against a Rebels defense that struggles to defend the pass. Ole Miss sits outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed.
Nearly every opponent on the schedule has produced methodical drives above the national average, aided by Ole Miss' 126th-ranked tackling.
The Faulkner offense has been nearly flawless at Florida, ranking top-10 in both Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings project this line at Florida -4, giving the Gators a small edge in the market. The total also has some value at or below the key number 59.
There are major advantages for both offenses in scoring position, as turnovers and penalties may be the only hurdles to a high-scoring game.
Check out Collin Wilson's full Week 4 betting card here:
Pick: Florida -3 · Over 59 or Better
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Iowa vs Michigan Pick
By Kyle Hunter
The Michigan Wolverines host the Iowa Hawkeyes in a good old-fashioned physical football game on Saturday. These two teams rank 118th and 133rd nationally in plays per game, so there shouldn’t be many possessions in this one.
Michigan hasn’t run the football well at all so far this season, coming in at 110th in the nation in Rushing Success Rate, 58th in Offensive Line Yards and 119th in rushing explosiveness.
Quarterback Bryce Underwood is being used heavily in the run game largely because the Wolverines just aren’t getting much from their running backs.
Iowa, meanwhile, leads the nation in Success Rate allowed and ranks seventh in explosiveness allowed. The Hawkeyes haven’t played a tough schedule, so that will drop some, but I trust Phil Parker as much as any defensive coordinator in the country.
Michigan will likely have to gradually move the ball down the field against the Hawkeyes, but its very low Success Rate in the run game makes that unlikely. The Iowa secondary is also always elite, and this year is no different.
I expect Iowa to run the football a bunch in this one. It'll take quite a bit of time off the clock on its offensive drives.
Michigan will likely settle for some field goals in the red zone, and I think Iowa will do a good job keeping everything in front of it.
Check out Kyle Hunter's other Week 4 team totals here:
Pick: Michigan Team Total Under 22.5
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Boise State vs Western Michigan Pick
By Bet Labs
Saturday's pivotal Boise State vs. Western Michigan Group of 6 game fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs betting guide.
Named "Road Favs Low Totals," this college football system identifies profitable spots where road favorites thrive in lower-scoring environments.
During the regular season, when the visiting team is favored and the closing total is set at 52.5 or lower, the expectation is that points will be harder to come by.
In these settings, the stronger road team is more likely to control tempo and dictate the outcome, as lower totals reduce variance and make it difficult for weaker opponents to keep games close.
The spread range ensures the road team is laying points, and when public betting percentages lean heavily toward that side, the market is signaling confidence in the matchup.
Moderate weather conditions, with temperatures between 32 and 74 degrees, further support consistent play without extreme disruptions.
By combining controlled scoring, clear road favoritism and stable conditions, this system shows that laying points with road favorites in low-total games delivers steady long-term value.
That's why we'll take Boise State to pick up a big road win on the road while covering in the process.
Pick: Boise State -7.5
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Wisconsin vs Penn State Pick
By Stuckey
I think this is a perfect spot to fade Penn State as a double-digit favorite. The Nittany Lions have played three scrimmages to start the season against Buffalo, Temple and Marshall.
The opener against Marshall looked very impressive at the time, but the Herd have been atrocious in the two games since and should've lost to both Missouri State and Middle Tennessee. So, the shine on that performance has certainly faded.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin looked much improved against one of the national title favorites in Notre Dame on a neutral field. That was much closer than the final score indicated and really got away from the Badgers due to a pick-six and a ref-gifted touchdown on a kick return fumble.
The Badgers defense is much more athletic on the back end, and they have some real size up front to slow down the Penn State rushing attack without committing too many bodies to the box.
Additionally, these two teams are trending in opposite directions health-wise. Penn State has a CVS receipt length of injuries heading into this week, with many coming on the defensive side of the ball.
However, the most important loss will be on offense with star wide receiver Koby Howard (who leads Penn State in receiving by a wide margin) expected to miss an extended period of time. That's a massive loss for the nation's leader in yards per catch among qualified receivers.
He's a walking explosive and opens up the rest of the offense for the Nittany Lions. Without him, this offense becomes much easier to contain, especially since quarterback Rocco Becht has always been an elite deep-ball thrower.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin should finally have a fully healthy offensive line, and a couple of its skill-position contributors are trending up health-wise.
I've also been impressed with Colton Joseph whenever he steps up in class, having faced arguably the nation's best defense last year in Indiana (on the road) and this year vs. Notre Dame on a neutral field.
He won't be intimidated by the stage or opponent.
He can also use his legs to extend drives in what should be a lower-scoring affair, which definitely makes the double-digit dog a bit more appealing.
For what it's worth, Matt Campbell has been one of the most profitable coaches as an underdog in his career at 37-23 ATS (61.7%), but he's perfectly average as a favorite vs. FBS foes at 49-49-3 ATS. Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell has also fared better in the underdog role.
Give me the fighting Fickells to keep this close.
Check out all nine of Stuckey's Week 4 situational spots here:
Pick: Wisconsin +10.5 (Play to +10)
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Stuckey's Full Action Network App Betting Card
By Stuckey
Stuckey has a number of bets for Saturday afternoon's slate, including picks for Ole Miss vs. Florida, Iowa vs. Michigan and Utah Iowa State.
He also has more throughout the day, so be sure to check out his full betting card below and in the Action Network app.
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