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The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders take on the Liberty Flames in Lynchburg, Virginia, on Saturday, Nov. 14. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Liberty is favored by -21.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2000. Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, enters as a +21.5 underdog and is +1060 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 53.5 total points.
Here’s my Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14.
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Prediction
- Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty Pick: Liberty -21 or Better
My Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee best bet is on the Flames to cover a large home spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Odds
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -120 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +1060 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 +100 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
- Middle Tennessee vs Liberty point spread: Liberty -21.5 (+100), Middle Tennessee +21.5 (-120)
- Middle Tennessee vs Liberty over/under: 53.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Middle Tennessee vs Liberty moneyline: Middle Tennessee +1060, Liberty -2000
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty College Football Preview
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview: Aiming for a Bowl
Middle Tennessee scored one of its biggest program wins in the last decade last week with a 51-42 win over rival Western Kentucky.
The victory ended a losing skid to WKU that dated back to 2018, and the fans stormed the field — in the locker room after, a video emerged of an emotional head coach Derek Mason.
That win also bumped MTSU up above .500 after Week 1 for the first time since 2022. With two exceedingly winnable games left (at Sam Houston, vs. New Mexico State), the Blue Raiders are in a terrific position to go bowling for the first time under Mason.
In spurts, this offense is pretty good. New offensive coordinator Anthony Scelfo has brought some passing explosiveness over from Southeast Louisiana and is a clear upgrade over Bodie Reeder (who's now WKU's problem at No. 123 in Points Per Drive).
Quarterback Roman Gagliano is a willing downfield passer, and receivers Ziyon Butler and AJ Jones are solid deep threats. Cam'ron Lacy provides Gagliano with a reliable intermediate target.
But the offense isn't always pretty good — in fact, it's oftentimes really terrible.
If the deep shots aren't there, Gagliano isn't overly effective, posting just a 38% Success Rate on passes. Play-calling is also a problem on late downs, where MTSU is just 132nd in Success Rate.
When the receivers are winning one-on-one battles, we see outputs like this past weekend (MTSU's offense accounted for 45 points) and Week 7 against Delaware (33).
But when those aren't there, this offense collapses, averaging just 16.8 points per game in losses.
That also doesn't account for a porous defense that ranks 100th in Points Per Drive, 118th in Success Rate and 118th in red-zone EPA.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Liberty's New Groove
Suffice to say, Liberty has found its groove. After two rough seasons plagued by injuries and coaching health issues, Jamey Chadwell has the Flames firing on all cylinders.
After dropping the season opener to James Madison and nearly getting clipped the following week by Gardner-Webb, Liberty has ripped off seven straight wins and seven straight covers.
In-house, there are absolutely talks about the possibility of making the College Football Playoff after JMU dropped two straight games, Oregon State dropped some, and Boise State lost its starting quarterback.
The odds disagree — as does the CFP Committee, analysis and us — but it's foolish to believe that Chadwell isn't using the possible playoff push as a motivator for both players and coaches to inflate the point margin in wins.
Nobody this season has a better Points Per Drive margin (No. 7 on offense, No. 4 on defense) or net Success Rate (+12.3%) than Liberty.
It has the right balance of an efficient offense led by the rejuvenated Deshawn Purdie and a shutdown defense that has held its last five opponents to 14 or fewer points.
The offense could use more explosive potential, and the defense could give up a bit less explosive potential, but on a down-to-down basis, on both sides of the ball, no team is outplaying its competition more.
After this week against MTSU, Liberty plays WKU and Missouri State (combined 6-12).
As things appear after Week 11, Liberty would host Jacksonville State in the Conference USA Championship, a game consensus power ratings project Liberty to be a -14 favorite in.
Strength of schedule/record and other nebulous metrics the CFP Committee leans on to make its selections will omit Liberty even at 12-1. But 12-1 appears to be the most likely final record in Lynchburg.
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Pick, Betting Analysis
Despite a few logged sharp moves on Middle Tennessee at +21 or better, per Action PRO, Liberty remains a three-touchdown home favorite. The over/under was bet down quickly from 54.5 and has remained at 53.5 for most of the week.
This is a horrendous spot for MTSU. It comes off one of its pillar program wins of the Mason era (and the last 10 seasons) in a highly emotional spot to play Liberty at Williams Stadium, a venue the Flames have gone 52-14 in since 2016.
With just four losses and two more opportunities at wins, this isn't a very high-leverage situation for MTSU, which is also two games and multiple tiebreakers back of a possible CUSA Championship berth.
Consensus power ratings favor Liberty by -26 at home, making this an easy play on the Flames.
MTSU's offense cannot overcome losing the battle up front, a battle almost certainly lost here against Liberty's stout defensive line.
Liberty also rosters by far the best secondary in Conference USA and ranks top-20 nationally in Yards Per Dropback and EPA Per Dropback allowed.
Pick: Liberty -21 or Better
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Betting Trends
