College Football Picks, Odds: Thursday Bets for Southern Miss vs Louisiana, Virginia vs Louisville
Getty Images. Pictured (clockwise from top-left): Louisiana’s Peter LeBlanc, Virginia’s Malik Washington, Louisville’s Jawhar Jordan and Southern Miss’ Frank Gore Jr.
- Week 11's weeknight college football slate rolls on with two Thursday night matchups.
- Out staff broke down both Southern Miss vs Louisiana and Virginia vs Louisville and came through with a pick for each.
- Check out both Thursday night college football betting previews below.
Thursday nights are for football.
Along with tonight's Panthers vs. Bears matchup in the NFL, we have two games on the college football schedule: an ACC clash between Louisville and Virginia and a Sun Belt battle between Louisiana and Southern Miss.
Our college football writers broke down both NCAAF matchups and shared a pick for each, so let's dive into their analysis for Thursday night's games.
Thursday College Football Betting Previews
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Virginia vs. Louisville
In just his first year, favorite son Jeff Brohm has Louisville on the brink of heading to the ACC Promised Land for the first time in program history.
The Cardinals control their destiny for the right to play Florida State in the conference championship game.
Louisville (8-1) has a double-digit win over Notre Dame on its resume and has rebounded in the last two weeks since its disaster performance at Pitt.
It’s been anything but a similar program turnaround for Tony Elliott and Virginia. The Cavaliers (2-7) are just 5-14 in his two-year tenure and appear destined again to finish the season with just a single conference victory.
Louisville’s defense has been dynamite in consecutive games. Does it show up for a third straight game? Or do the Cardinals get caught turning their attention toward a matchup against Miami in Coral Gables?
Let's take a look at the Virginia vs. Louisville odds and make a pick and prediction for Thursday night's college football game.
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Last Saturday went about as poorly as it could have possibly gone for Virginia.
Not only did the Cavaliers lose by 28 points to Georgia Tech, but starting quarterback Tony Muskett was injured in the process, forcing Tony Elliott to burn the redshirt of freshman Anthony Colandrea.
Colandrea, who is a promising prospect and has a much higher ceiling than Muskett, finished the game with 200 yards on 21-of-37 passing with two touchdowns and an interception.
But while the upside is there with the freshman, so too is the downside.
Colandrea plays with reckless abandon and can make some really poor decisions as a passer. His seven interceptions are tied for the fourth-most in the ACC despite playing in only five games.
But he’s also sixth in the conference with six completions of 40-plus yards because he’s not afraid to sling it — it’s a double-edged sword.
Colandrea and Muskett were listed with an "OR" designation on this week's depth chart for the starting quarterback position, but with a short week, I lean toward the former getting the nod against Louisville.
If nothing else, the Cavaliers offense can’t be much worse. Their 23.1 points per game is the 10th-best in the ACC, and they have virtually no running game to speak of, ranking 94th in Success Rate.
Virginia’s defense has performed even worse than its offense. Only Georgia Tech allows more yards than the Cavaliers in the ACC, and the Hoos are outside of the top 80 in both Run and Pass Success Allowed.
The Yellow Jackets rushed for a whopping 305 yards last week, the third team to run for more than 200 yards against Virginia. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Louisville team that’s eclipsed that number four times this season, including each of the last two weeks.
It can’t get much sweeter for Brohm, a former Louisville quarterback, to have his team in position to play for an ACC Championship.
Since slipping on the banana peel at Pittsburgh, the Cardinals haven’t allowed a touchdown in eight straight quarters while outscoring the competition, 57-3.
The efficient Cardinals offense continues to roll, regardless of who is or isn’t injured. Last week against Virginia Tech, the ACC’s second-leading rusher, Jawhar Jordan, was rendered ineffective with a bum hamstring.
In his place, backup running back Isaac Guerendo rushed for 146 yards and three touchdowns on just 11 carries for a Louisville offense that ranks 22nd in Rush Success.
The balanced offense is not to be dismissed at the quarterback position with veteran Jack Plummer. Plummer only needed to throw it 12 times in the Cardinals’ rout of the Hokies, but he averages nearly 250 yards passing a game for a team that ranks 17th in Pass Success.
Louisville’s defense has really stepped up the last two weeks, albeit against a hobbled Duke quarterback and a less-than-spectacular Virginia Tech offense. The Cardinals surrendered just 342 total yards combined against the Blue Devils and Hokies.
The last two weeks have bumped Louisville up to second in the conference in both scoring defense (16.3 points per game) and total defense (285.2 yards per game).
Virginia vs Louisville
Betting Pick & Prediction
Surely, Louisville’s defense has to allow a touchdown at some point this week, right? I think the Cardinals do finally surrender a touchdown playing against a quarterback who's always swinging for the fences.
Muskett and Colandrea were listed with an "OR" on the depth chart this week, relating to Muskett's day-to-day injury status. I tend to think now that Colandrea's redshirt status is burned, he will play.
And while Colandrea may break the Cardinals' secondary for one or two huge plays, he’s also extremely likely to turn it over. The Louisville defense is third in the ACC with 10 interceptions, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see it force a pair of picks from the Virginia quarterback who has six INTs in his last three games.
The short week also compounds issues for the Hoos. They were bullied for 305 yards rushing by Georgia Tech on Saturday, so it’d make sense for a Louisville team that only threw it 12 times last week to go right back to that same strategy.
The Cardinals have already stumbled against a bad ACC team this season, but it’s not going to happen again against Virginia.
Pick: Louisville -20 (Play to -21)
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Southern Miss vs. Louisiana
By Dan Keegan
The Sun Belt dipped its toes into early-week football this season.
You might have seen Southern Miss losing to South Alabama a few weeks ago on a Tuesday night. But it’s MACtion season now, and the Sun Belt is back to Thursday night clashes.
That means we're here with some picks and predictions for this week’s game, which pits a pair of SBC West teams trying to make some late-season hay. Southern Miss is still fighting to end a tough season, and Louisiana just lost breakout quarterback Zeon Chriss for the season.
The home Cajuns are favored by double digits in this matchup despite the loss of Chriss. Is there buy-low value on Southern Miss? Or will Louisiana, on the brink of bowl eligibility, handle its business?
Let's jump into the Southern Miss vs. Louisiana odds and make a prediction for Thursday night's Sun Belt showdown.
Will Hall’s program has endured some growing pains in Year 3.
After making a bowl game last fall with a defense and ground game that propped up a miserable passing attack, the team has struggled to a 2-7 record this year.
The rush attack has regressed, the passing game has not progressed, and the Nasty Bunch defense has backslid with the loss of coordinator Austin Armstrong.
But after a miserable October, the team rallied during a long week after a Tuesday game and used the extra time to come together. The Golden Eagles have played their best two games of the season in the past two weeks.
What’s changed?
They have recommitted to pounding the rock with Frank Gore Jr., one of the best players in Eagles history. After cracking 100 yards for a game only twice in the first seven contests, he's done it in consecutive weeks.
Quarterback Billy Wiles still takes too many sacks, but he’s played two of his better games in the past two weeks, including his best effort yet last week in the win over ULM.
This is hardly a good offense, and the passing game is still in the dumps. But the ground game is middle of the pack, ranking 33rd in explosives and 63rd in Success Rate. And more importantly, the team is still playing hard, rallying after a listless 55-3 loss to South Alabama.
The defensive backslide has been tough for the Golden Eagles. They’ve been whipped by the good offenses they've faced — Florida State and South Alabama — and have struggled with teams that can attack on the ground or through the air like Texas State and App State.
But Southern Miss did shut down the one-dimensional units it faced in Old Dominion and ULM.
Its strength, if it has one, is up front. The Eagles give up too many big plays on the ground, but the pass rush led by Jalil Clemons is serviceable.
Louisiana stumbled to an early Week 2 loss to Old Dominion and turned to redshirt freshman backup quarterback Zeon Chriss in the aftermath.
Chriss proved to be one of the most dynamic players at any position in the Sun Belt; his rushing ability as a quarterback changed the game for the Cajuns' ground attack.
Chris was a solid passer with a 66.7% completion percentage and 70 QBR, but his value was in the running game, which took off once the extra number was added.
Lead back Jacob Kibodi (611 yards, 6.6 yards per carry) and second chair Dre’lyn Washington (359, 5.7) have been a formidable 1-3 punch. I would say 1-2, but Chriss (492, 6.7) is the second punch here.
Without Chriss, this might look like just a pedestrian rushing attack. We know the passing game will be uninspiring.
Veteran Chandler Fields re-ascends to the starting role, and his time in Lafayette has not been impressive. The fifth-year junior got extended playing time last year; he has completed 58% of his passes for 6.1 yards per completion in his career.
The Cajuns turned their season around last year when they benched Fields.
He had four drives last week against Arkansas State after Chriss went down, ending in an interception, turnover on downs, lost fumble and then end of game.
Louisiana’s defense has regressed this season. Last year’s unit finished middle of the pack for FBS, but most of the talented players from the Billy Napier era have departed in the portal or graduated.
The new-look Cajun defense is good at taking away the big plays (seventh in explosives allowed) but sits outside the top 100 in Success Rate Allowed and Finishing Drives Allowed.
Southern Miss vs Louisiana
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite the poor caliber of defenses in this game, I’m tempted to take the Under 51.
Louisiana’s offense will not be great without Chriss and with Fields at the helm, and its defense matches up with Southern Miss’ big play potential.
But I’ll take the points instead.
Despite a tough year for the Golden Eagles, they're still playing tough. Chriss’ injury is a great equalizer and will bring Louisiana’s run game back to the pack.
I’ll take the Eagles and the points any time you can get double digits.
Pick: Southern Miss +10.5
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