Bears vs. Ravens Odds & Betting Predictions - October 26, 2025

Since the Week 5 bye, the Bears have shifted to a much more run-heavy approach, with their pass rate over expected dropping 6.6%. That shift looks intentional, and Kyle Monangai has been the biggest beneficiary. He was one of my favorite rookies to watch on film heading into the season (very Skattebo-esque with his yards-after-contact ability) and he’s slowly carving out the “David Montgomery role” in this offense. With D’Andre Swift questionable (groin) and Roschon Johnson ruled out, Monangai’s workload should continue to grow. The Lamar Jackson news also swung the spread to Bears +1.5, making it much more likely they can stick with a balanced, run-heavy game plan. The Ravens have been vulnerable to inside runs, allowing the 2nd-most yards over expected per carry, which plays directly to Monangai’s strengths. I’m projecting his median at 35.5 yards about a 65% chance to clear 24.5 and still showing value up to 28.5 at other books. I’m also laddering 40+ & 50+ just given the wide range of outcomes + value I’m seeing. And just to note: my projection already assumes Swift plays..if he’s limited or out, this number could look way too low.

Favorite play of the season. EDIT: Lamar got ruled out after I bet this. We ride into this game with the worst # possible 😭

Tyler Huntley unders are 11-3 lifetime and 47 is a key so grab above that if it’s available

@Stuckey2 3 https://myaction.app/5YNMojRDHXb

If Lamar doesn’t play again, this is a gift from the Gods.

Bit of an “injury merchant” bet here but Kmet left last game with a back injury and missed practice on Wed. Betting this now bc Loveland’s TD odds will plummet if/when Kmet is ruled out.

Luck Rankings https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-8-luck-rankings-picks-7-luck-based-bets-consider

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

@sundaysixpack @Stuckey2 https://myaction.app/Wi3YQvXPHXb

@Stuckey2 https://myaction.app/ncGKHB7RHXb

Hilarious bet we got here

THE BLITZ is forecasting 1.52 receptions for Luther Burden III compared to 2.19 receptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 60% of the time, resulting in a 38% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $37.91. (This play is good down to at least -109.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

@GDAWG5000 https://myaction.app/mVODhIbOJXb