Bills vs. Rams Odds & Betting Predictions - October 13, 2026

Bishop has cleared this in 3 of 4 games and is playing in the box at a WAY higher rate this year, so I expect the elevated tackle production to stick. The crazy part is he’s done it against a tougher schedule, and now gets a Rams offense that ranks 2nd in tackle opportunities for safeties. I’m actually projecting Buffalo to face around 0.5 more completions but 4 fewer rush attempts than its season average, so the raw play volume could take a hit here which isn’t ideal But Bishop mixes in heavily on both completions and runs, and his average depth of tackle on rush plays is 6.1 yards, so he typically needs the RB to get to the second level. With how efficient the Rams have been running it with Kyren/Corum, I think that helps offset some of the lower rush volume. I have Bishop closer to 6.3 tackles with around a 61% chance to clear 5.5.

Tracking some 1H from discord live show

Early szn Bounce Back Overall: 345-234-11,60% (ROI:15%) Season:13-6-1,68% (ROI:30%) Road underdog after being favored by at least seven Overall: 104-54-7,66% (ROI:28%) Season:1-2-0,33% (ROI:-34%) #TSA

Talked about this with Stuck/Evan on the PRO Discord show last night

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Trust me, I wish after doing my deep dive on this game that the value was on a Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, Josh Allen or even my guy Blake Corum OVER, especially since I’m probably going to the game lol. Sadly, this is where I landed. And these are the absolute worst props from a content standpoint. If anyone tails, it’ll either be a quiet/easy win everyone forgets about, or Knox catches one 10-yard pass and everyone remembers I was the sicko who turned them onto Dawson Knox longest reception under. Lose-lose for me lol. But all I really care about is finding value with the same process I’ve used forever, and over the long run that’s what matters. This is also just a tricky game to project with DJ Moore’s status completely up in the air. Even if he plays, there’s obviously some risk he aggravates the shoulder again. So when I’m locking in a prop like this, I’m basically building around the worst-case scenario and assuming DJM is out. If he plays, I actually think that helps this slightly. Knox should still run a route on roughly 40-45% of Allen’s dropbacks, but his role has changed quite a bit. He’s made a living as a TD threat and has an 11.6 career YPR, but his aDOT this year is a career-low 1.5 yards. He’s typically staying in to block, releasing late and becoming more of a safety valve for Allen. That does two things: his targets become way easier to catch, which helps explain why he’s caught 100% of them so far, but those catches are also happening much closer to the line of scrimmage. We’ve seen that role every week now, so at some point I have to assume it’s real. Of course he’s going to catch some 10+ yard passes this year. Maybe one happens here and we’re dead immediately. I might be the only betting analyst who spends this much time explaining exactly how his own bets can lose, but it’s football. It’s unpredictable at times and thats why we love it. There’s another angle I like, though. The Rams rank 3rd in pressure rate, and Knox has a 20% target rate when Allen is kept clean but has seen zero targets on 29 routes when Allen is pressured. Allen is usually getting to one of his first reads or taking off himself before Knox ever becomes part of the progression. Knox also hasn’t been a huge YAC guy throughout his career, while the Rams have been very tough on TEs. This is also a good example of how insanely sharp prop markets are now. I basically have Knox as a coin flip to catch 2+ passes and actually show slight value on Over 1.5 receptions +112, while at the same time having his median longest catch closer to 8 yards. I have around a 59% chance he stays under 9.5, and since I’m already assuming the tougher DJM-out scenario, I think the true number may be a tick above 60%.

@GDAWG5000 https://www.youtube.com/live/8jpyIU0RJwU?is=wCMMG3KOkzwpxK_Q

Rest of card going on Twitter first @charliedisturco

NFL POD

Defensive Or Special Teams TD - Bills vs Rams - Both Teams at +280. If you don’t have Bet365, go to DraftKings and take +550 D/ST on both sides (works out to +275).

Sent out earlier in the week…. Analysis on my Twitter @ anderspicks Would play 3 for 2U still and to 3.5 -105 for 1U

Kincaid's routes drop down a season low 49% of drop backs in W4, and the Rams have allowed an average of just 21.25 rec yards to opposing TEs this season.

Brandon’s Playground Week 5 pod

@wheatonbrando https://youtu.be/Spi9x-cD95o?is=hxVjF6Y5FWuRPA4F

@GDAWG5000 https://youtu.be/D-VSFIRKqec?is=hMOaINyXZnMG7eG3

@DougKezirian https://youtu.be/P3X8BD_4KTw?is=V8M5PRyqAGXxHS02

Personal PR agreement > Luck Game via @nick_giffen > Christian Benford will be a GTD and if he doesn’t play, those WR’s are going to feast on the home turf. Great spot for the Rams to remind folks why they’re the SB favs.